East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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353 TRRCK - 1 (1115 Q - 1131 QJ PR0§E C PR08E P PR08E C + p to o \ , , x: i — 0 o UJ ^ in ' o o 3 LI S 3 5 » UJ UJ U m * r> f\ O C ' u uJ U. T) «• XI UJ MEDinN DIRMETER (UM) Fig. 3: The profile of median diameter as computed for track 1. (cf. Liu and Lo (1989)) TRRCK - 2 11652 0 - 1711 0) PR0BE C PR086 P PROBE C + P o LU
354 MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS AND TROPICAL OCEAN - ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS Chao Jiping , Ji Zhengang and Wang Xiaoxi (Nanioal Research Center For Marine Environemental Forecast, Beijing,China) ABSTRACT The experimental forecasts results by use of the air - sea /land coupled anomaly model, which is developed ten years ago have been represented in this paper. It is also shown that this anomaly model is also effective to study the teleconnection effect of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical ocean upon the changes of the global atmospheric circulation . In order to develop this model into one of including the Equator, the study on the air - sea interaction in the tropical ocean has been undertaken based on the same idea of the model mentioned above. It is pointed out that a kind of slow wave, which is caused by the air - sea interaction exists. This slow wave may be regarded as a monthly and seasonal predictor, as a consequence, a new global anomaly model including the tropical ocean of long - range forecast is being developed . 1. MONTHLY AND SEASONAL NUMERICAC FORECASTS BY USING THE ANOMALY OCEAN /LAND - ATMOSPHERE COUPLING FILTERED MODEL Ten years ago, a numerical model was proposed for the monthly and seasonal forecasts, which is an atmosphere - ocean/land coupled model (Chao et al, 1977, 1982). The model was different from the usual general circulation model (GCM) in that the physical qualities such as geopotential height (GPH) , sea surface temperature (SST) were separated into climatological means and anomalies. The climatological means were obtained ^or diagnosed from the observations as known fields putting into model, so only the anomalies are needed to be predicted. Such a model has been called anomalous model. Moreover, based on the analysis of linear system of the model, the transient Rossby waves have been
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UNIVERSITY OF HONG KOHG LlBEAEY
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International Conference on East As
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FOREWORD The International Conferen
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VHI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE PHO
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45 LIM, Hock National University of
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XIII INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMI
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XV! The mean heat sources over Asia
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XVIII , Jhe impact of urbanization
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XX The East Asia heavy rainfall num
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THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIV
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THE COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW
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Q \ ed atmospheric processes * 2. M
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2) DH Experiment The horizontal flo
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of the orography, establishing a na
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11 a o 12 21 36 4$ 60 fZ Pig.3. Nea
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14 OVERVIB/V CF MEI-YU RESEARCH IN
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16 Fig.l Climatological daily rainf
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18 showed a marked contrast between
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20 3. SWDPTiC ^mLYSIS WD DIA^DSTIC
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22 and Chang (27). It was also foun
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24 triggering mechanisms. In additi
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26 important mechanism for creating
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28 mature convections. Satellite pi
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30 States included 70 scientists an
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1-4 M-H C CO *+-« C CD 4-9 C o •
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34 19.Chen, G.T. J., "A study on sy
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36 complexes: 27-28 May 1981 case",
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38 On Temporal Variations of Low Le
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40 low-level flows of the Asian sum
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42 the northern part of the Pacific
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44 cycle is observed for the amplit
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46 SUMMER (6-85 : 12 2 M979 P:850 M
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Observed Structure and Propagation
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50 southeasterly current in the wes
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40°N 30°N 15°N Equator 90°E 105
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54 The pattern of arrows in Fig. 3
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56 Figure 5. Vertical cross-section
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58 TOE MEAN HEAT SOURCES OVER ASIAN
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60 over tost parts of India, Southe
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62 inctly different types. One is t
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64 60 70 too no 120 00
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Fig.2.The 7-month mean values of (a
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68 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ME
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70 Synoptic circulation patterns fo
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72 (iii) The mid-latitude westerlie
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74 and the temperate latitude weste
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76 O 1 - (b) Total I Rainf a" 4 0
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78 LONGITUDE TIME WINOCROS5 SECTION
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A simulation of Lee-Cyclogenesis ov
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82 implemented to the global model
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84 In all three experiments, a deep
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86 References: Ballish, A.B., 1980:
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93 1.2-a I2.S 120. 127,5 US. 11.5 7
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95 2. Climatology of East Asian mon
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97 850 MB WIND (U*. V) S. 0 30N i~^
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99 120 ISO ISO 210 2VJ 770 ISO 180
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Figure 6 (a) Time-longitude section
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103 Monsoon cyclones /-~N I Subtrop
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105 INFLUENCE OF VARIATIONS OF THE
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surface during the rainy period of
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located at the position of the firs
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egion of western Australia. These t
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115 Fig.^57 Characteristics of vari
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119 Some Dynamic Aspects of the Equ
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121 equatorial zonal plane. In this
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123 where N is nondimensional Newto
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125 moisture concentration graduall
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127 boundary layer frictional conve
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129 000 - 20 30 WAVELENGTH (10 3 KM
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131 CHINESE POLAR ORBITING METEOROL
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some middle and small receiving sta
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135 local meteorology units through
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140 The Mesoscale Monitoring System
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142 The weather radar network is co
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144 where V and L are in centimeter
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146 PRF: 80-2000 Hz Minimum detecta
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148 [UHF Doppler RadaT] ^Pibalk ' Z
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150 STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF A SQUALL
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152 25 2200L 16 MAY 0000 L 17 MAY X
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154 0*73 KN 0,73 KM TAMEX IOF2 00*1
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156 4.2 East-west Cross Section The
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158 KM -20 EAST OF TOGA -10 0043 28
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160 Radar Observation of Precipitat
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162 Fig. 2. A triple doppler networ
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164 for this presentation Fig. 5a(0
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166 near the northern tip of Taiwan
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168 In order to understand the inte
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170 REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC C
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172 In the meantime, with the incre
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174 method (scanning frequency) and
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176 For sharp absorption lines, the
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178 [10]* Sun Jinhui, Qiu Jinhuan e
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180 COMPARISION OF RADAR ESTIMATES
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182 of 29 %). The Ra/Rg and the rel
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184 under 1) errors in estimating r
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186 Table 1. Summary of Ra/Rg for t
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188 FIGURE 3. CORRELATION COEFFICIE
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190 DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATI
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192 which are concerned about by th
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194 fly on schedule, take off and l
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196 and minus value. Fig. 4 is the
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198 REFERENCES 1. Donald Turnbull e
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200 evaporation, condensation, wind
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202 control valve which permits amp
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204 Table 1 Rainfall Records of a T
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206 various rainfall intensity shou
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208 c 400-- £ o "5 350 H — A —
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210 IMPACT OF HOURLY S-VISSR SATELL
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212 Fig. 1. Daily 1.200 UTC • 500
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I Fig. 2. GMS-3 IR picture taken at
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216 110E 20 115E 30. 20" X J 4o*N'\
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218 Fig. 7. Provisional best track
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220 PREDICTABILITY OF LOW FREQUENCY
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222 expressions that invoke the Mon
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224 b) A low frequency mode experim
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226 A CLOUD WAVE THEORY AND ITS APP
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228 heating indicating a substantia
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230 If N Fig. I, A schematic diagra
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232 2. A Quasi-Diabatic Geostrophic
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234 X can be q, £ c, v, or T. The
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236 On the basis of the preceding d
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238 west of the maximum cloud cover
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240 NORMAL MODES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
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242 (1983) pointed out that simulat
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244 reach the top of model atmosphe
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246 is not clear in the tropics. Th
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248 Wang, J.-T., J.-W. Kim and W.L.
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250 (a) 30°N-30°S (January) (b) 3
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252 An Important element of the ear
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254 IOCS I02S 3SN Fig. 1 A general
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256 staion of LID (farmland in the
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258 start from October 1990 and end
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260 The measurements of surface rad
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262 Secular trends in urban tempera
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264 LONGTERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
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266 Using these data sources It has
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268 (3) a nearly static phase where
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270 greater rate of increasing mini
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272 consistent with accepted theory
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274 RECENT APPLICATIONS OF THE PENN
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276 upward motion (Fig. Ib) of air
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278 Stauffer and Warner (1987) used
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280 observed precipitation rates fo
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282 coupled model system show that
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284 Baroclinic Instability of Modif
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286 Eq (2.4) corresponds to the con
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288 conventional Eady waves, except
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290 perturbations in Mode I remains
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292 5: Summary And Remarks Two diff
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294 INFLUENCES OF OROGRAPHY ON FLOW
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296 (13) The next step is to determ
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298 where „ = 1 - R a = - R 2>x c
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300 — -~ 1, thus the above relati
Page 325 and 326: 302 The vertical velocity at the to
Page 327 and 328: 304 THE MIGEOPHYSICS OF A MEI-YU CA
Page 329 and 330: 306 O.Qg-m" 3 , which is probably d
Page 331 and 332: 308 snowflakes aggregation generate
Page 333 and 334: 310 (a) TRP.CK - 2 (1652 0 - 1711 0
Page 335 and 336: 312 1987 6/16 17QSSO U 0.9 C 2 = 1.
Page 337 and 338: 314 2. Heavy Rainfall Upstream of a
Page 339 and 340: 316 accumulated rainfall amount on
Page 341 and 342: 318 Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate t
Page 343 and 344: 320 DEGREE K IT ( M/S ) QC (G/KG) -
Page 345 and 346: 322 270 290 310 330 350 370 POTJEMP
Page 347 and 348: 324 A primitive equation model was
Page 349 and 350: 326 had already been affected by so
Page 351 and 352: 328 I .011 I 1...J/1 l\l l-L-l L I
Page 353 and 354: 330 «'.. Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 9 ex
Page 355 and 356: 332 Mathiar, M. B., 1983: A quasi-L
Page 357 and 358: 334 Long (1985), the maximum occure
Page 359 and 360: 336 February 1979. It clearly indic
Page 361 and 362: 338 Jiang H. M. and Jeng H. N., "Nu
Page 363 and 364: TEMP.GRAD.(C/100KM3 1979/2/04/OOZ 1
Page 365 and 366: TKANS.C1R. 9 1979/2/04/OE2 •; J97
Page 367 and 368: 344 however, the sharp decrease in
Page 369 and 370: 346 00 " XD 3 b D 3 aD b dD = [ N.
Page 371 and 372: 348 heights. The median diameter an
Page 373 and 374: 350 going on within the melting lay
Page 375: 352 TRFICK - I (HIS 0 - H31 0J PR0B
Page 379 and 380: 356 In another experiment, the heat
Page 381 and 382: 358 4. CONCLUSION The forecasting e
Page 383 and 384: 360 TABLE 1. COMPARISONS OF THE COR
Page 385 and 386: 362 Fig. 3. Map of the correlation
Page 387 and 388: 364 THE TELECONNECTION OF EQUATORIA
Page 389 and 390: 366 3-*-j-] dag grid % ^Showing eve
Page 391 and 392: 368 oBE (6) fl(uP) , fl(vP) ... 0(w
Page 393 and 394: 370 the major tidal components over
Page 395 and 396: 372 one meter. Most of the water le
Page 397 and 398: 374 and Technology Advisory Group,
Page 399 and 400: 376 INTRODUCTION In 1%6, Bjerknes,
Page 401 and 402: 378 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES O
Page 403 and 404: 380 current between 127° E—128°
Page 405 and 406: 382 El Nino and Southern Oscillatio
Page 407 and 408: 384 Fig.5. The ADCP measurements (s
Page 409 and 410: 386 I. Introduction Climate is one
Page 411 and 412: 388 specifically at the modeling an
Page 413 and 414: 390 Even during the warm phase of t
Page 415 and 416: 392 (iv) To investigate the morphol
Page 417 and 418: 394 Change program under IGBP is a
Page 419 and 420: 396 TABLE 1: PROCESSES TO BE STUDIE
Page 421 and 422: 398 w / / / / / / / / /-"V / / Z Fi
Page 423 and 424: 400 CHINA-JAPAN JOINT RESEARCH PROG
Page 425 and 426: 402 eastward. In addition to mainta
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404 Processes of Hicroscale Air-Sea
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406 phase velocity; both ratios, th
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T i l l ! o I • GO 00 J Wind Velo
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410 Concluding Remarks In order to
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412 THE VARIATIONS OF THE SST IN TH
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414 maps, there is an extensive are
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416 Flg.1. Time series of the annua
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418 90 N 90 S|. . . 20E 20E Fig.3c.
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420 ON LABORATORY SIMULATION OF SEA
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422 EXPERIMENT: Only simple and eas
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424 With the ability to simulate co
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426 (5) Meroney, R.N., Cermak, J.E.
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428 Fig. 3 Composite Photograph of
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430 A detailed description of the m
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432 However, the schemes failed to
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434 REFERENCES Anderson, E. and A.
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436 Figure 2 Vertical structure of
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438 36 HOUR FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL
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440 al.,1984). In this paper, a gen
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442 where subscript x denotes u, v,
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444 AM AM PO- N3 A/i + N3' and NH--
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446 there is only a minor differenc
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448 Guo X.R.,Yan Z.H.,Zhang Y.L. an
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450 THE EAST ASIA HEAVY RAINFALL NU
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452 (described in section 2) carrie
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454 Fig. . 2. Validation of Tempera
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456 simulate the partly cloudy cond
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458 3.3 Nesting Run with 2 km Grids
Page 483 and 484:
460 REFERENCES Bhumralker, C. M., 1
Page 485 and 486:
462 The Impact of the Termination o
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464 and 45.8 km respectively, which
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466 relative to (P+O/2, they actual
Page 491 and 492:
468 Chang, S. W., 1982: The ore-gra
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470 Table 3. 24-hour forecast error
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472 Initial Position Errors 1983-19
Page 497 and 498:
474 A SPECTRAL MODEL FOR MEDIUM RAN
Page 499 and 500:
476 where I p u = FC-
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478 given. This is treated separate
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480 predicted location is too far t
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482 Fig.2 Distribution of 24h preci
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484 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF TAIWA
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486 monsoon in east Asia and for co
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488 unfortunately are not integral
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Figure 1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY
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492 TaUj.g_ji Multiple rnfjross i o
Page 517 and 518:
494 THE NONLINEAR INTERACTION OF IN
Page 519 and 520:
496 Burgers(l948) had put forward a
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498 From Eqs,(8), the necessary con
Page 523 and 524:
500 In order to show quantitatively
Page 525 and 526:
502 Multiple Equilibria Of a Therma
Page 527 and 528:
504 For the two-level quasi-geostro
Page 529 and 530:
506 The coefficients Z, T, H, and T
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508 just the stable Branch 7 for st
Page 533 and 534:
510 REFERENCES Bolin, B., 1950: On
Page 535 and 536:
512 STATIONARY SOLUTIONS WITH TOPOG
Page 537 and 538:
514 ANNTTAL CYCLE OF 2TTT Fig. 7 An
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516 CISK modes have narrow axes of
Page 541 and 542:
518 about one to three weeks. Predi
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520 first one. In his work, the lon
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522 The works mentioned are qualita
Page 547 and 548:
524 [12] Wang, S.-W., Adv. in Atmos
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526 processes that give rise to a d
Page 551 and 552:
528 3 Local energetics analysis The
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530 dominant waves of a local mode
Page 555 and 556:
532 slightly longer than the length
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534 tends to induce a westerly jet
Page 559 and 560:
536 TYPHOON FORMATION AND DEVELOPME
Page 561 and 562:
538 influence of the mean wind prof
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540 3. Steady-State Solutions The p
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542 of maximum wind (Fig 7 c). This
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544 (A) b- l.O.(B) b- 0.8.(C) b- 0.
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546 b= 1.0,C= 0.03,0 = 120., T = 50
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548 tropical cyclones. Then, Shapir
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550 fine equation (2) will be used
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552 4) Cumulus vertical flux of hea
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554 Fig. 4 Same as Fig, 1, but for
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556 n=800 bPa and r **1. Now it is
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558 RRFKRRNCF Challa, M., and R. T,
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560 The limited-area forecast syste
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562 Our study is to obtain and anal
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564 coarse grid (Fig. 5). The struc
Page 589 and 590:
566 ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION Fig.
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569 AUTHOR INDEX ANTHES, Richard A.
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571 LIOU, Chi-Sann LIU, Cho-Teng LI
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