East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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9. CCNCLIDIN3 REMARKS
The Mei-Yu research in Taiwan in the last 20-30 years is reviewed
in this paper. The current understanding of various aspects of the
Taiwan Ivfei-Yu is presented and a relatively complete reference list is
given. It is hoped that the present paper will serve as a guidance for
future research of the Taiwan Mei-Yu.
The data collected in the field phase of T/MEXwill be a great
help to the mesoscale research on heavy rainfall events, mesoscale
convective systems, and mesoscale circulation systems. The much more
active research relevant to heavy rainfall will ensure better
understanding of these events and thus leads to improvement in heavy
rainfall forecast. The paper on the Taiwan Msi-Yu research during the
last 20 years (1968-1987) can be categorized by the different forecast
periods (Fig.7). About one half of these papers (54 out of 106) was
related to the 1-2 days short range forecast category. It is expected
that more research related to the categories of very short range
forecast(3-18 h) and nowcasting (0-3 h) will be carried out in the
next 10 years. The papers published in different categories of
forecast periods in the next 10 years are estimated in Fig.7. It is
expected to increase gradually from the category of interannual
variability towards the category of shorter range and reaches a
maximum at the category of very short range forecast. Apparently, the
results on mesoscale research will have a tremendous effect on the
very short range forecast and nowcasting.
Fig.7
interannual seasonal extended medium short very
short casting
(>month) (5 day- (2-5 (1-2 (3-18 (0-3
month) day) day) hour) hour)
Distribution of the Nfei-Yu papers in different categories of
forecast periods in •• .1968-1.987.( solid) and the estimated
distribution in 1988-1997(dashed).
now