East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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469 Table 1. Initial position errors (km) of the RO and the JTWC. a = standard deviation. YEAR 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 124 174 159 218 149 121 RO error a 30.4 28.5 39.7 43.5 23.9 28.7 37.6 44.0 23.3 22.6 45.0 42.9 JTWC error a 36.2 31.4 61.9 66.4 41.4 54.0 41.7 44.8 34.3 33.4 62.2 54.0 Table 2. Average initial position errors (km) made by RO and JTWC during 1988 and 1983-87 categorized by availability of reconnaissance data and best-track intensity. D < 6 = data available within 6 hours before warning time, D < 12 - data available within 6 to 12 hours before warning time. The group '1983-87 Average 1 includes all the available data for these years. TD « tropical depression, TS = tropical storm, STS = severe tropical storm, T = typhoon; N = number of cases, a = standard deviation. Legend: No. of cases (N) RO error JTWC error RO a JTWC a Data Group D < 6 D < 12 1983-87 Average 1988 INTENSITY C A T E G O R Y TD TS STS Total N=9 48 .5 59 .4 43 .4 70 .5 N»9 46 . 2 52.7 40 0 .1 27 N=106 41 .1 77 ,3 40 .8 70 .1 N=18 64 .5 110 .1 39 .4 72 .7 53.2 60.9 N= .v- 50.0 35.6 N- 48.8 51.7 N= 66.5 47.3 41 48.6 40.6 24 65.8 34.8 224 62.0 57.1 31 68.9 42.3 N=51 28.6 27 .2 21.9 22 .5 N»27 29.2 36 .9 24.1 19 .6 N=189 27.5 35 .2 26.3 25 .3 N=35 25.8 47 .3 23.3 31 .3 19.3 14.6 23.6 15.6 tfs. N-' 18.6 14.4 89 17.1 9.0 47 27,2 18.9 N=305 22.5 15.8 N«-17 35.7 ^ 47.4 43.3 54.5 N=196 31 .2 29.2 37 .3 31.5 N=107 32 .8 40.4 28, .2 28.7 N=824 31, .7 43.2 36, .5 46.6 N=121 45. 0 62.2 42. 9 54.0
470 Table 3. 24-hour forecast errors (km) of the (P*C)/2 method, the RO and the JTWC. a = standard deviation. Y E A R 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 No, of cases 87 128 116 174 116 71 (P+CJ/2 error a 171 135 238 145 189 92 239 154 192 132 232 143 RO error a 199 123 213 116 170 83 213 148 200 110 231 133 JTWC error o 159 96 211 127 194 109 209 152 197 93 254 138 Table 4. 24-hour forecast errors (km) made by the (P+O/2 method, the RO and the JTWC during 1988 and 1983-87 categorized by availability of reconnaissance data and best-track intensity. D < 6 = data available within 6 hours before warning time, D < 12 = data available within 6 to 12 hours before warning time. The group '1983-87 Average 1 includes all the available data tor these years. TD = tropical depression, TS = tropical storm, STS = severe tropical storm, T = typhoon; N = number of cases, o = standard deviation. Legend: No. of cases (N) RO error JTWC error (P+O/2 error RO 0 JTWC o (P+O/2 o I N T E N S I T Y C A T E G O R Y Data Group TD TS STS T Total D < 6 N=7 318 151 289 123 395 189 N=34 248 115 212 135 234 109 199 91 179 88 229 132 N=74 185 98 174 99 206 102 N=162 208 108 188 109 227 124 D < 12 N=8 209 82 312 110 251 135 N*15 283 144 302 204 289 183 N=23 196 156 175 118 215 140 N=39 179 152 191 156 194 127 N=85 205 151 217 162 222 147 1983-87 Average N=67 226 111 251 129 232 165 N*139 237 132 221 149 233 141 K=154 189 121 184 112 219 145 N=261 182 113 179 106 190 121 201 122 197 124 211 138 1988 N=10 278 142 310 152 287 147 N=ll 301 168 354 120 243 144 147 108 232 122 185 137 K=29 250 97 212 125 243 135 N=71 231 133 254 134 232 143
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UNIVERSITY OF HONG KOHG LlBEAEY
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International Conference on East As
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FOREWORD The International Conferen
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VHI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE PHO
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45 LIM, Hock National University of
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XIII INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMI
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XV! The mean heat sources over Asia
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XVIII , Jhe impact of urbanization
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XX The East Asia heavy rainfall num
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THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIV
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THE COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW
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Q \ ed atmospheric processes * 2. M
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2) DH Experiment The horizontal flo
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of the orography, establishing a na
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11 a o 12 21 36 4$ 60 fZ Pig.3. Nea
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14 OVERVIB/V CF MEI-YU RESEARCH IN
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16 Fig.l Climatological daily rainf
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18 showed a marked contrast between
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20 3. SWDPTiC ^mLYSIS WD DIA^DSTIC
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22 and Chang (27). It was also foun
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24 triggering mechanisms. In additi
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26 important mechanism for creating
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28 mature convections. Satellite pi
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30 States included 70 scientists an
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1-4 M-H C CO *+-« C CD 4-9 C o •
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34 19.Chen, G.T. J., "A study on sy
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36 complexes: 27-28 May 1981 case",
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38 On Temporal Variations of Low Le
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40 low-level flows of the Asian sum
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42 the northern part of the Pacific
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44 cycle is observed for the amplit
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46 SUMMER (6-85 : 12 2 M979 P:850 M
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Observed Structure and Propagation
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50 southeasterly current in the wes
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40°N 30°N 15°N Equator 90°E 105
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54 The pattern of arrows in Fig. 3
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56 Figure 5. Vertical cross-section
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58 TOE MEAN HEAT SOURCES OVER ASIAN
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60 over tost parts of India, Southe
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62 inctly different types. One is t
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64 60 70 too no 120 00
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Fig.2.The 7-month mean values of (a
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68 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ME
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70 Synoptic circulation patterns fo
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72 (iii) The mid-latitude westerlie
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74 and the temperate latitude weste
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76 O 1 - (b) Total I Rainf a" 4 0
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78 LONGITUDE TIME WINOCROS5 SECTION
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A simulation of Lee-Cyclogenesis ov
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82 implemented to the global model
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84 In all three experiments, a deep
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86 References: Ballish, A.B., 1980:
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93 1.2-a I2.S 120. 127,5 US. 11.5 7
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95 2. Climatology of East Asian mon
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97 850 MB WIND (U*. V) S. 0 30N i~^
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99 120 ISO ISO 210 2VJ 770 ISO 180
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Figure 6 (a) Time-longitude section
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103 Monsoon cyclones /-~N I Subtrop
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105 INFLUENCE OF VARIATIONS OF THE
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surface during the rainy period of
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located at the position of the firs
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egion of western Australia. These t
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115 Fig.^57 Characteristics of vari
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119 Some Dynamic Aspects of the Equ
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121 equatorial zonal plane. In this
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123 where N is nondimensional Newto
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125 moisture concentration graduall
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127 boundary layer frictional conve
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129 000 - 20 30 WAVELENGTH (10 3 KM
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131 CHINESE POLAR ORBITING METEOROL
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some middle and small receiving sta
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135 local meteorology units through
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140 The Mesoscale Monitoring System
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142 The weather radar network is co
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144 where V and L are in centimeter
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146 PRF: 80-2000 Hz Minimum detecta
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148 [UHF Doppler RadaT] ^Pibalk ' Z
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150 STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF A SQUALL
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152 25 2200L 16 MAY 0000 L 17 MAY X
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154 0*73 KN 0,73 KM TAMEX IOF2 00*1
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156 4.2 East-west Cross Section The
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158 KM -20 EAST OF TOGA -10 0043 28
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160 Radar Observation of Precipitat
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162 Fig. 2. A triple doppler networ
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164 for this presentation Fig. 5a(0
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166 near the northern tip of Taiwan
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168 In order to understand the inte
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170 REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC C
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172 In the meantime, with the incre
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174 method (scanning frequency) and
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176 For sharp absorption lines, the
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178 [10]* Sun Jinhui, Qiu Jinhuan e
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180 COMPARISION OF RADAR ESTIMATES
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182 of 29 %). The Ra/Rg and the rel
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184 under 1) errors in estimating r
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186 Table 1. Summary of Ra/Rg for t
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188 FIGURE 3. CORRELATION COEFFICIE
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190 DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATI
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192 which are concerned about by th
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194 fly on schedule, take off and l
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196 and minus value. Fig. 4 is the
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198 REFERENCES 1. Donald Turnbull e
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200 evaporation, condensation, wind
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202 control valve which permits amp
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204 Table 1 Rainfall Records of a T
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206 various rainfall intensity shou
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208 c 400-- £ o "5 350 H — A —
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210 IMPACT OF HOURLY S-VISSR SATELL
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212 Fig. 1. Daily 1.200 UTC • 500
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I Fig. 2. GMS-3 IR picture taken at
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216 110E 20 115E 30. 20" X J 4o*N'\
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218 Fig. 7. Provisional best track
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220 PREDICTABILITY OF LOW FREQUENCY
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222 expressions that invoke the Mon
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224 b) A low frequency mode experim
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226 A CLOUD WAVE THEORY AND ITS APP
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228 heating indicating a substantia
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230 If N Fig. I, A schematic diagra
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232 2. A Quasi-Diabatic Geostrophic
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234 X can be q, £ c, v, or T. The
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236 On the basis of the preceding d
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238 west of the maximum cloud cover
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240 NORMAL MODES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
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242 (1983) pointed out that simulat
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244 reach the top of model atmosphe
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246 is not clear in the tropics. Th
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248 Wang, J.-T., J.-W. Kim and W.L.
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250 (a) 30°N-30°S (January) (b) 3
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252 An Important element of the ear
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254 IOCS I02S 3SN Fig. 1 A general
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256 staion of LID (farmland in the
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258 start from October 1990 and end
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260 The measurements of surface rad
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262 Secular trends in urban tempera
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264 LONGTERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
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266 Using these data sources It has
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268 (3) a nearly static phase where
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270 greater rate of increasing mini
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272 consistent with accepted theory
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274 RECENT APPLICATIONS OF THE PENN
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276 upward motion (Fig. Ib) of air
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278 Stauffer and Warner (1987) used
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280 observed precipitation rates fo
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282 coupled model system show that
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284 Baroclinic Instability of Modif
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286 Eq (2.4) corresponds to the con
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288 conventional Eady waves, except
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290 perturbations in Mode I remains
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292 5: Summary And Remarks Two diff
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294 INFLUENCES OF OROGRAPHY ON FLOW
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296 (13) The next step is to determ
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298 where „ = 1 - R a = - R 2>x c
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300 — -~ 1, thus the above relati
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302 The vertical velocity at the to
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304 THE MIGEOPHYSICS OF A MEI-YU CA
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306 O.Qg-m" 3 , which is probably d
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308 snowflakes aggregation generate
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310 (a) TRP.CK - 2 (1652 0 - 1711 0
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312 1987 6/16 17QSSO U 0.9 C 2 = 1.
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314 2. Heavy Rainfall Upstream of a
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316 accumulated rainfall amount on
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318 Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate t
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320 DEGREE K IT ( M/S ) QC (G/KG) -
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322 270 290 310 330 350 370 POTJEMP
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324 A primitive equation model was
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326 had already been affected by so
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328 I .011 I 1...J/1 l\l l-L-l L I
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330 «'.. Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 9 ex
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332 Mathiar, M. B., 1983: A quasi-L
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334 Long (1985), the maximum occure
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336 February 1979. It clearly indic
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338 Jiang H. M. and Jeng H. N., "Nu
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TEMP.GRAD.(C/100KM3 1979/2/04/OOZ 1
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TKANS.C1R. 9 1979/2/04/OE2 •; J97
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344 however, the sharp decrease in
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346 00 " XD 3 b D 3 aD b dD = [ N.
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348 heights. The median diameter an
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350 going on within the melting lay
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352 TRFICK - I (HIS 0 - H31 0J PR0B
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354 MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS
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356 In another experiment, the heat
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358 4. CONCLUSION The forecasting e
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360 TABLE 1. COMPARISONS OF THE COR
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362 Fig. 3. Map of the correlation
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364 THE TELECONNECTION OF EQUATORIA
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366 3-*-j-] dag grid % ^Showing eve
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368 oBE (6) fl(uP) , fl(vP) ... 0(w
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370 the major tidal components over
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372 one meter. Most of the water le
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374 and Technology Advisory Group,
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376 INTRODUCTION In 1%6, Bjerknes,
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378 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES O
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380 current between 127° E—128°
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382 El Nino and Southern Oscillatio
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384 Fig.5. The ADCP measurements (s
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386 I. Introduction Climate is one
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388 specifically at the modeling an
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390 Even during the warm phase of t
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392 (iv) To investigate the morphol
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394 Change program under IGBP is a
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396 TABLE 1: PROCESSES TO BE STUDIE
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398 w / / / / / / / / /-"V / / Z Fi
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400 CHINA-JAPAN JOINT RESEARCH PROG
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402 eastward. In addition to mainta
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404 Processes of Hicroscale Air-Sea
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406 phase velocity; both ratios, th
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T i l l ! o I • GO 00 J Wind Velo
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410 Concluding Remarks In order to
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412 THE VARIATIONS OF THE SST IN TH
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414 maps, there is an extensive are
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416 Flg.1. Time series of the annua
Page 441 and 442: 418 90 N 90 S|. . . 20E 20E Fig.3c.
Page 443 and 444: 420 ON LABORATORY SIMULATION OF SEA
Page 445 and 446: 422 EXPERIMENT: Only simple and eas
Page 447 and 448: 424 With the ability to simulate co
Page 449 and 450: 426 (5) Meroney, R.N., Cermak, J.E.
Page 451 and 452: 428 Fig. 3 Composite Photograph of
Page 453 and 454: 430 A detailed description of the m
Page 455 and 456: 432 However, the schemes failed to
Page 457 and 458: 434 REFERENCES Anderson, E. and A.
Page 459 and 460: 436 Figure 2 Vertical structure of
Page 461 and 462: 438 36 HOUR FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL
Page 463 and 464: 440 al.,1984). In this paper, a gen
Page 465 and 466: 442 where subscript x denotes u, v,
Page 467 and 468: 444 AM AM PO- N3 A/i + N3' and NH--
Page 469 and 470: 446 there is only a minor differenc
Page 471 and 472: 448 Guo X.R.,Yan Z.H.,Zhang Y.L. an
Page 473 and 474: 450 THE EAST ASIA HEAVY RAINFALL NU
Page 475 and 476: 452 (described in section 2) carrie
Page 477 and 478: 454 Fig. . 2. Validation of Tempera
Page 479 and 480: 456 simulate the partly cloudy cond
Page 481 and 482: 458 3.3 Nesting Run with 2 km Grids
Page 483 and 484: 460 REFERENCES Bhumralker, C. M., 1
Page 485 and 486: 462 The Impact of the Termination o
Page 487 and 488: 464 and 45.8 km respectively, which
Page 489 and 490: 466 relative to (P+O/2, they actual
Page 491: 468 Chang, S. W., 1982: The ore-gra
Page 495 and 496: 472 Initial Position Errors 1983-19
Page 497 and 498: 474 A SPECTRAL MODEL FOR MEDIUM RAN
Page 499 and 500: 476 where I p u = FC-
Page 501 and 502: 478 given. This is treated separate
Page 503 and 504: 480 predicted location is too far t
Page 505 and 506: 482 Fig.2 Distribution of 24h preci
Page 507 and 508: 484 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF TAIWA
Page 509 and 510: 486 monsoon in east Asia and for co
Page 511 and 512: 488 unfortunately are not integral
Page 513 and 514: Figure 1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY
Page 515 and 516: 492 TaUj.g_ji Multiple rnfjross i o
Page 517 and 518: 494 THE NONLINEAR INTERACTION OF IN
Page 519 and 520: 496 Burgers(l948) had put forward a
Page 521 and 522: 498 From Eqs,(8), the necessary con
Page 523 and 524: 500 In order to show quantitatively
Page 525 and 526: 502 Multiple Equilibria Of a Therma
Page 527 and 528: 504 For the two-level quasi-geostro
Page 529 and 530: 506 The coefficients Z, T, H, and T
Page 531 and 532: 508 just the stable Branch 7 for st
Page 533 and 534: 510 REFERENCES Bolin, B., 1950: On
Page 535 and 536: 512 STATIONARY SOLUTIONS WITH TOPOG
Page 537 and 538: 514 ANNTTAL CYCLE OF 2TTT Fig. 7 An
Page 539 and 540: 516 CISK modes have narrow axes of
Page 541 and 542: 518 about one to three weeks. Predi
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520 first one. In his work, the lon
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522 The works mentioned are qualita
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524 [12] Wang, S.-W., Adv. in Atmos
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526 processes that give rise to a d
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528 3 Local energetics analysis The
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530 dominant waves of a local mode
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532 slightly longer than the length
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534 tends to induce a westerly jet
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536 TYPHOON FORMATION AND DEVELOPME
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538 influence of the mean wind prof
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540 3. Steady-State Solutions The p
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542 of maximum wind (Fig 7 c). This
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544 (A) b- l.O.(B) b- 0.8.(C) b- 0.
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546 b= 1.0,C= 0.03,0 = 120., T = 50
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548 tropical cyclones. Then, Shapir
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550 fine equation (2) will be used
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552 4) Cumulus vertical flux of hea
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554 Fig. 4 Same as Fig, 1, but for
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556 n=800 bPa and r **1. Now it is
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558 RRFKRRNCF Challa, M., and R. T,
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560 The limited-area forecast syste
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562 Our study is to obtain and anal
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564 coarse grid (Fig. 5). The struc
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566 ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION Fig.
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569 AUTHOR INDEX ANTHES, Richard A.
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571 LIOU, Chi-Sann LIU, Cho-Teng LI
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East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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