East Asia and Western Pacific METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE

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Model verification with only astronomical tides. 1-6, December 1986 T~ KATER LEVEL AT TANSUI RIVER ENTRANCE Obs/ Obs. Hwa Li an Tansui river entrance (obs.) Tansui coast (comp.) Taichung TRIX Obs. Pon Hu Fig. 3 astronomical tides and storm-induced surge heights. Obs. Suo Keelung Comparisons between predicted and the observed water levels at five commercial harbors using the numerical model.
372 one meter. Most of the water level gauges are located within a harbor or on bridge pier in a river system. In the first case, the computed water levels are usually higher than the harbor water level due to damping effects of the harbor mouth. In the second case, the computed surge level is usually lower than those observed in a river due to the effects of flood stage. These factors have to be considered during the model adjustment stage. Fig. 4 shows the distribution of water level induced by a typical typhoon toward 300°T at 5.1 m/s with a central pressure of 965 mb. The maximum positive surge (157 cm) is located near the Tansui River entrance while the maximum negative surge (-70 cm) is located near Keelung. With the model, we have made 1300 simulations using typhoons of various strengths and directions passing through Taiwan. For each coastal area, surge heights are being analyzed for engineering design and planning purposes. For example, near Taipei, severe surge heights are ranked and tabulated on top of Fig. 5. The lower diagram in Fig. 5 shows the storm track index map with probability roses for typhoon's movements within each 1° by 1° square according to past data. In the south-western part of Taiwan, the elevation of many coastal ares are very low. During the high tide conditions, even a small typhoon passing through the Phillipines may cause floodings near the SW coast. The writers believe that those areas are located off deep waters of relatively low latitude. The large Rossby radius of deformation (700-900 km) when combined with the coast-trapped waves made the problem worse. In our prediction operation, improvements are needed in four major areas, namely, better typhoon track forecast (e.g., see Tsay 1982), higher coastal resolution, more verification/adjusment, and a better wind field model. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The execution of this study would not have been possible without the help of many colleagues. They are: Drs. S. Y. Chen, L. H. Chang, -L. H. Fong,C. Y'Kwqh, C. K, Li, T, C. Li, F. C. Liu, W, M. Liu, from the Central Weather Bureau; Messrs. Y. C. Hwang, W, Lin, N. H. Ma, from the Science
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UNIVERSITY OF HONG KOHG LlBEAEY
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International Conference on East As
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FOREWORD The International Conferen
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VHI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE PHO
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45 LIM, Hock National University of
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XIII INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMI
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XV! The mean heat sources over Asia
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XVIII , Jhe impact of urbanization
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XX The East Asia heavy rainfall num
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THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIV
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THE COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW
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Q \ ed atmospheric processes * 2. M
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2) DH Experiment The horizontal flo
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of the orography, establishing a na
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11 a o 12 21 36 4$ 60 fZ Pig.3. Nea
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14 OVERVIB/V CF MEI-YU RESEARCH IN
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16 Fig.l Climatological daily rainf
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18 showed a marked contrast between
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20 3. SWDPTiC ^mLYSIS WD DIA^DSTIC
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22 and Chang (27). It was also foun
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24 triggering mechanisms. In additi
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26 important mechanism for creating
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28 mature convections. Satellite pi
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30 States included 70 scientists an
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1-4 M-H C CO *+-« C CD 4-9 C o •
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34 19.Chen, G.T. J., "A study on sy
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36 complexes: 27-28 May 1981 case",
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38 On Temporal Variations of Low Le
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40 low-level flows of the Asian sum
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42 the northern part of the Pacific
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44 cycle is observed for the amplit
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46 SUMMER (6-85 : 12 2 M979 P:850 M
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Observed Structure and Propagation
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50 southeasterly current in the wes
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40°N 30°N 15°N Equator 90°E 105
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54 The pattern of arrows in Fig. 3
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56 Figure 5. Vertical cross-section
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58 TOE MEAN HEAT SOURCES OVER ASIAN
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60 over tost parts of India, Southe
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62 inctly different types. One is t
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64 60 70 too no 120 00
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Fig.2.The 7-month mean values of (a
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68 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ME
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70 Synoptic circulation patterns fo
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72 (iii) The mid-latitude westerlie
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74 and the temperate latitude weste
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76 O 1 - (b) Total I Rainf a" 4 0
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78 LONGITUDE TIME WINOCROS5 SECTION
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A simulation of Lee-Cyclogenesis ov
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82 implemented to the global model
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84 In all three experiments, a deep
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86 References: Ballish, A.B., 1980:
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93 1.2-a I2.S 120. 127,5 US. 11.5 7
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95 2. Climatology of East Asian mon
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97 850 MB WIND (U*. V) S. 0 30N i~^
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99 120 ISO ISO 210 2VJ 770 ISO 180
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Figure 6 (a) Time-longitude section
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103 Monsoon cyclones /-~N I Subtrop
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105 INFLUENCE OF VARIATIONS OF THE
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surface during the rainy period of
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located at the position of the firs
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egion of western Australia. These t
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115 Fig.^57 Characteristics of vari
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119 Some Dynamic Aspects of the Equ
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121 equatorial zonal plane. In this
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123 where N is nondimensional Newto
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125 moisture concentration graduall
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127 boundary layer frictional conve
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129 000 - 20 30 WAVELENGTH (10 3 KM
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131 CHINESE POLAR ORBITING METEOROL
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some middle and small receiving sta
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135 local meteorology units through
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140 The Mesoscale Monitoring System
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142 The weather radar network is co
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144 where V and L are in centimeter
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146 PRF: 80-2000 Hz Minimum detecta
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148 [UHF Doppler RadaT] ^Pibalk ' Z
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150 STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF A SQUALL
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152 25 2200L 16 MAY 0000 L 17 MAY X
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154 0*73 KN 0,73 KM TAMEX IOF2 00*1
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156 4.2 East-west Cross Section The
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158 KM -20 EAST OF TOGA -10 0043 28
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160 Radar Observation of Precipitat
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162 Fig. 2. A triple doppler networ
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164 for this presentation Fig. 5a(0
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166 near the northern tip of Taiwan
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168 In order to understand the inte
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170 REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC C
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172 In the meantime, with the incre
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174 method (scanning frequency) and
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176 For sharp absorption lines, the
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178 [10]* Sun Jinhui, Qiu Jinhuan e
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180 COMPARISION OF RADAR ESTIMATES
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182 of 29 %). The Ra/Rg and the rel
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184 under 1) errors in estimating r
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186 Table 1. Summary of Ra/Rg for t
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188 FIGURE 3. CORRELATION COEFFICIE
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190 DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATI
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192 which are concerned about by th
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194 fly on schedule, take off and l
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196 and minus value. Fig. 4 is the
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198 REFERENCES 1. Donald Turnbull e
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200 evaporation, condensation, wind
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202 control valve which permits amp
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204 Table 1 Rainfall Records of a T
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206 various rainfall intensity shou
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208 c 400-- £ o "5 350 H — A —
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210 IMPACT OF HOURLY S-VISSR SATELL
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212 Fig. 1. Daily 1.200 UTC • 500
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I Fig. 2. GMS-3 IR picture taken at
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216 110E 20 115E 30. 20" X J 4o*N'\
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218 Fig. 7. Provisional best track
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220 PREDICTABILITY OF LOW FREQUENCY
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222 expressions that invoke the Mon
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224 b) A low frequency mode experim
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226 A CLOUD WAVE THEORY AND ITS APP
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228 heating indicating a substantia
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230 If N Fig. I, A schematic diagra
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232 2. A Quasi-Diabatic Geostrophic
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234 X can be q, £ c, v, or T. The
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236 On the basis of the preceding d
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238 west of the maximum cloud cover
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240 NORMAL MODES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
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242 (1983) pointed out that simulat
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244 reach the top of model atmosphe
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246 is not clear in the tropics. Th
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248 Wang, J.-T., J.-W. Kim and W.L.
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250 (a) 30°N-30°S (January) (b) 3
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252 An Important element of the ear
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254 IOCS I02S 3SN Fig. 1 A general
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256 staion of LID (farmland in the
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258 start from October 1990 and end
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260 The measurements of surface rad
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262 Secular trends in urban tempera
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264 LONGTERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
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266 Using these data sources It has
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268 (3) a nearly static phase where
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270 greater rate of increasing mini
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272 consistent with accepted theory
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274 RECENT APPLICATIONS OF THE PENN
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276 upward motion (Fig. Ib) of air
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278 Stauffer and Warner (1987) used
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280 observed precipitation rates fo
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282 coupled model system show that
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284 Baroclinic Instability of Modif
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286 Eq (2.4) corresponds to the con
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288 conventional Eady waves, except
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290 perturbations in Mode I remains
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292 5: Summary And Remarks Two diff
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294 INFLUENCES OF OROGRAPHY ON FLOW
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296 (13) The next step is to determ
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298 where „ = 1 - R a = - R 2>x c
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300 — -~ 1, thus the above relati
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302 The vertical velocity at the to
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304 THE MIGEOPHYSICS OF A MEI-YU CA
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306 O.Qg-m" 3 , which is probably d
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308 snowflakes aggregation generate
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310 (a) TRP.CK - 2 (1652 0 - 1711 0
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312 1987 6/16 17QSSO U 0.9 C 2 = 1.
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314 2. Heavy Rainfall Upstream of a
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316 accumulated rainfall amount on
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318 Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate t
Page 343 and 344: 320 DEGREE K IT ( M/S ) QC (G/KG) -
Page 345 and 346: 322 270 290 310 330 350 370 POTJEMP
Page 347 and 348: 324 A primitive equation model was
Page 349 and 350: 326 had already been affected by so
Page 351 and 352: 328 I .011 I 1...J/1 l\l l-L-l L I
Page 353 and 354: 330 «'.. Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 9 ex
Page 355 and 356: 332 Mathiar, M. B., 1983: A quasi-L
Page 357 and 358: 334 Long (1985), the maximum occure
Page 359 and 360: 336 February 1979. It clearly indic
Page 361 and 362: 338 Jiang H. M. and Jeng H. N., "Nu
Page 363 and 364: TEMP.GRAD.(C/100KM3 1979/2/04/OOZ 1
Page 365 and 366: TKANS.C1R. 9 1979/2/04/OE2 •; J97
Page 367 and 368: 344 however, the sharp decrease in
Page 369 and 370: 346 00 " XD 3 b D 3 aD b dD = [ N.
Page 371 and 372: 348 heights. The median diameter an
Page 373 and 374: 350 going on within the melting lay
Page 375 and 376: 352 TRFICK - I (HIS 0 - H31 0J PR0B
Page 377 and 378: 354 MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS
Page 379 and 380: 356 In another experiment, the heat
Page 381 and 382: 358 4. CONCLUSION The forecasting e
Page 383 and 384: 360 TABLE 1. COMPARISONS OF THE COR
Page 385 and 386: 362 Fig. 3. Map of the correlation
Page 387 and 388: 364 THE TELECONNECTION OF EQUATORIA
Page 389 and 390: 366 3-*-j-] dag grid % ^Showing eve
Page 391 and 392: 368 oBE (6) fl(uP) , fl(vP) ... 0(w
Page 393: 370 the major tidal components over
Page 397 and 398: 374 and Technology Advisory Group,
Page 399 and 400: 376 INTRODUCTION In 1%6, Bjerknes,
Page 401 and 402: 378 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES O
Page 403 and 404: 380 current between 127° E—128°
Page 405 and 406: 382 El Nino and Southern Oscillatio
Page 407 and 408: 384 Fig.5. The ADCP measurements (s
Page 409 and 410: 386 I. Introduction Climate is one
Page 411 and 412: 388 specifically at the modeling an
Page 413 and 414: 390 Even during the warm phase of t
Page 415 and 416: 392 (iv) To investigate the morphol
Page 417 and 418: 394 Change program under IGBP is a
Page 419 and 420: 396 TABLE 1: PROCESSES TO BE STUDIE
Page 421 and 422: 398 w / / / / / / / / /-"V / / Z Fi
Page 423 and 424: 400 CHINA-JAPAN JOINT RESEARCH PROG
Page 425 and 426: 402 eastward. In addition to mainta
Page 427 and 428: 404 Processes of Hicroscale Air-Sea
Page 429 and 430: 406 phase velocity; both ratios, th
Page 431 and 432: T i l l ! o I • GO 00 J Wind Velo
Page 433 and 434: 410 Concluding Remarks In order to
Page 435 and 436: 412 THE VARIATIONS OF THE SST IN TH
Page 437 and 438: 414 maps, there is an extensive are
Page 439 and 440: 416 Flg.1. Time series of the annua
Page 441 and 442: 418 90 N 90 S|. . . 20E 20E Fig.3c.
Page 443 and 444: 420 ON LABORATORY SIMULATION OF SEA
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422 EXPERIMENT: Only simple and eas
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424 With the ability to simulate co
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426 (5) Meroney, R.N., Cermak, J.E.
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428 Fig. 3 Composite Photograph of
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430 A detailed description of the m
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432 However, the schemes failed to
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434 REFERENCES Anderson, E. and A.
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436 Figure 2 Vertical structure of
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438 36 HOUR FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL
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440 al.,1984). In this paper, a gen
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442 where subscript x denotes u, v,
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444 AM AM PO- N3 A/i + N3' and NH--
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446 there is only a minor differenc
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448 Guo X.R.,Yan Z.H.,Zhang Y.L. an
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450 THE EAST ASIA HEAVY RAINFALL NU
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452 (described in section 2) carrie
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454 Fig. . 2. Validation of Tempera
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456 simulate the partly cloudy cond
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458 3.3 Nesting Run with 2 km Grids
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460 REFERENCES Bhumralker, C. M., 1
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462 The Impact of the Termination o
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464 and 45.8 km respectively, which
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466 relative to (P+O/2, they actual
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468 Chang, S. W., 1982: The ore-gra
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470 Table 3. 24-hour forecast error
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472 Initial Position Errors 1983-19
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474 A SPECTRAL MODEL FOR MEDIUM RAN
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476 where I p u = FC-
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478 given. This is treated separate
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480 predicted location is too far t
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482 Fig.2 Distribution of 24h preci
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484 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF TAIWA
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486 monsoon in east Asia and for co
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488 unfortunately are not integral
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Figure 1. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY
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492 TaUj.g_ji Multiple rnfjross i o
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494 THE NONLINEAR INTERACTION OF IN
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496 Burgers(l948) had put forward a
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498 From Eqs,(8), the necessary con
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500 In order to show quantitatively
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502 Multiple Equilibria Of a Therma
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504 For the two-level quasi-geostro
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506 The coefficients Z, T, H, and T
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508 just the stable Branch 7 for st
Page 533 and 534:
510 REFERENCES Bolin, B., 1950: On
Page 535 and 536:
512 STATIONARY SOLUTIONS WITH TOPOG
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514 ANNTTAL CYCLE OF 2TTT Fig. 7 An
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516 CISK modes have narrow axes of
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518 about one to three weeks. Predi
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520 first one. In his work, the lon
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522 The works mentioned are qualita
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524 [12] Wang, S.-W., Adv. in Atmos
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526 processes that give rise to a d
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528 3 Local energetics analysis The
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530 dominant waves of a local mode
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532 slightly longer than the length
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534 tends to induce a westerly jet
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536 TYPHOON FORMATION AND DEVELOPME
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538 influence of the mean wind prof
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540 3. Steady-State Solutions The p
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542 of maximum wind (Fig 7 c). This
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544 (A) b- l.O.(B) b- 0.8.(C) b- 0.
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546 b= 1.0,C= 0.03,0 = 120., T = 50
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548 tropical cyclones. Then, Shapir
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550 fine equation (2) will be used
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552 4) Cumulus vertical flux of hea
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554 Fig. 4 Same as Fig, 1, but for
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556 n=800 bPa and r **1. Now it is
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558 RRFKRRNCF Challa, M., and R. T,
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560 The limited-area forecast syste
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562 Our study is to obtain and anal
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564 coarse grid (Fig. 5). The struc
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566 ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION Fig.
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569 AUTHOR INDEX ANTHES, Richard A.
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571 LIOU, Chi-Sann LIU, Cho-Teng LI
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