FOI-R--3990--SE_reducerad

FOI-R--3990--SE
encouraged local communities in Žygaičiai to campaign against shale gas
exploration. 440 The Russian media was active in providing publicity for these
campaigns and during the referendum. It also organized aggressive political
reporting on the LNG terminal project, which forced reactions from Norway’s
ambassador and business representatives. 441
It is therefore no surprise that when, in the autumn of 2013, Lithuania
experienced additional economic pressure – a transport blockade on the
Kaliningrad border and a temporary Russian ban on the import of Lithuanian
dairy products – the first reaction was to link it with the ongoing negotiations
between Lithuania and Gazprom. 442 The State Security Department in Lithuania
had warned, however, in the summer of 2013 of the possibility of aggressive
tactics by Russia against Lithuania during its Presidency of the Council of the
European Union. 443 The first signs came with Russia’s pressure on Moldavian
wine and Ukrainian chocolate producers.
The entire Russian strategy during Lithuania’s Presidency could be described as
a political “effects-based operation”. This military concept, although criticized
by the military, can be borrowed by the political realm to illustrate and explain
what Lithuania experienced during the second half of 2013. Such operations first
outline the end-goal and then use alternative, non-military means to achieve it.
These could be economic, media-related or logistical to cripple, demoralize and
confuse the opponent.
During its presidency, Lithuania witnessed a whole complex of pressure by
Russia, which started with a joint Russian-Belarusian military drill. Zapad 2013,
on the Lithuanian border, which played out a fairly aggressive scenario. 444 It
continued with pressure in the economic spheres where Lithuania is most
dependent on Russia: the transportation of and trade in dairy products.
Lithuanian vehicles were stopped at the border with Kaliningrad and it was
announced that all trucks would go through a special checking procedure. This
440 The results of the referendum were 62.7% against the construction of the NPP, and 34% in
favour. See
http://www.enmin.lt/en/activity/veiklos_kryptys/strateginiai_projektai/Visaginas_npp.phpclear_c
ache=Y.
441 “Interview with the CEO of Hoegh LNG”, Lithuanian Tribune (2013-11-04),
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/55782/interview-with-the-ceo-of-hoegh-lng-201355782/.
442 See “Opinion: Why is the ruling coalition so afraid to win the arbitrage against Gazprom”,
Lithuanian Tribune (2013-09-06), http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/49807/opinion-why-is-theruling-coalition-so-afraid-to-win-the-arbitrage-against-gazprom-201349807/.
443 See National Security Strategy of Lithuania, op. cit.
444 Karlis Neretnieks (2013): “Opinion: Zapad 2013 – observations and perspectives”, Lithuanian
Tribune (2013-10-15), http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/53648/opinion-zapad-2013-observationsand-perspectives-201353648/.
139