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FOI-R--3990--SE 7 About the Authors Dr Mike Winnerstig is a deputy director of research at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and currently the leader of the Security in the Baltic Sea Area project. Dr Gudrun Persson is a deputy director of research at FOI and currently a senior scholar within the Russian Studies Programme at FOI. Anna Bulakh is a Junior Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence Studies (ICDS), Tallinn. Julian Tupay is a former ICDS Junior Research Fellow. Kaarel Kaas is the Editor-in-Chief of Diplomaatia, a journal published in Tallinn. Emmet Tuohy is an ICDS Research Fellow. Kristiina Visnapuu is a former ICDS Research Assistant. Juhan Kivirähk is a former ICDS Senior Research Fellow. Andis Kudors is the Executive Director of the Board of the Centre for East European Policy Studies, Riga and Tallinn. Dr Nerijus Maliukevičius is a Lecturer and Scientific researcher at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science. 146
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has generated considerable concerns in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are NATO members and thus protected by the collective defence capabilities of the alliance, but also in many ways the most vulnerable members of the alliance. This has led to an increased interest in other issues than traditional military threats against the Baltic states, in particular Russian ”soft power” and other means of non-military influence. This report analyses the Russian use of these means of influence in the Baltic states during the last five years. To wield soft power might be a more effective tactic in a conflict than a traditional military attack – especially if the target is protected militarily through an alliance with bigger and more important actors. The results of the report indicate that a substantial number of actors, backed by the Russian federal government, are engaged in the implementation of a soft power strategy in the Baltic states. Central pieces of this strategy are a) the Russian Compatriots policy, that actively supports all Russian-speaking people outside of Russia proper, b) a campaign aimed at undermining the self-confidence of the Baltic states as political entities, and c) interference in the domestic political affairs of the Baltic states. All this is reinforced by systematic Russian attempts to portray the Baltic states as “fascist”. As a whole, Russian strategy seems to be actively using soft power and non-military influence as tools of destabilization against the Baltic states. The results of the Russian actions are so far rather limited. For example, the majority of the Russian-speakers in Estonia are nowadays Estonian citizens, and a relatively small number are “stateless”. In all three Baltic countries there are new younger generations today, with Russian as their mother tongue but increasingly identifying themselves as loyal citizens of their country of residence. In that sense, the Russian wielding of soft power against the Baltic states has been a failure. In other areas, such as the energy sector, Russian non-military power has been more successful, but there are signs indicating that the Baltic states are coming to grips with that situation as well. ISSN1650-1942 www.foi.se
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Tools of Destabilization Russian So
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FOI-R--3990--SE Titel Tools of Dest
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FOI-R--3990--SE Summary The ongoing
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FOI-R--3990--SE 3.3.1 Russia’s Co
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FOI-R--3990--SE 5.3 The Compatriots
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FOI-R--3990--SE Executive Summary T
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FOI-R--3990--SE accusations form a
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FOI-R--3990--SE 1 Introduction Dr M
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FOI-R--3990--SE position conclude t
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FOI-R--3990--SE One way to study th
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FOI-R--3990--SE identifies a risk t
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FOI-R--3990--SE this area that woul
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FOI-R--3990--SE of municipal format
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FOI-R--3990--SE 2.8.2 Other Actors
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FOI-R--3990--SE links with politica
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FOI-R--3990--SE 3 Russian Soft Powe
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FOI-R--3990--SE Eurasian continent,
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FOI-R--3990--SE Table 2: Estonia’
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FOI-R--3990--SE automatic naturaliz
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FOI-R--3990--SE combinations of the
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FOI-R--3990--SE 3.3.3 The Central A
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FOI-R--3990--SE According to the Le
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FOI-R--3990--SE state schools. 92 T
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FOI-R--3990--SE dismantling the sta
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FOI-R--3990--SE through the volunta
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FOI-R--3990--SE From 1995 until 200
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FOI-R--3990--SE showed a propaganda
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FOI-R--3990--SE lags far behind, as
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FOI-R--3990--SE and Russo-focused a
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FOI-R--3990--SE makers in the selec
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FOI-R--3990--SE Diagram 2: Russian
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FOI-R--3990--SE Trade between Eston
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FOI-R--3990--SE Russian tourists ha
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FOI-R--3990--SE 3.10.1 Gas Russian
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FOI-R--3990--SE (BEMIP), is invalua
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FOI-R--3990--SE Russia is unquestio
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FOI-R--3990--SE government. That sa
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FOI-R--3990--SE identity and the en
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FOI-R--3990--SE based on Russian st
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FOI-R--3990--SE noted that accordin
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FOI-R--3990--SE took part, voted ag
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FOI-R--3990--SE then…the Russian
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FOI-R--3990--SE initiative of Unite
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FOI-R--3990--SE the country are ver
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FOI-R--3990--SE authoritarian state
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FOI-R--3990--SE Parliament). 254 Ai
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FOI-R--3990--SE cultural values as
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FOI-R--3990--SE such views have lit
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Page 104 and 105: FOI-R--3990--SE fairly normal econo
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Page 108 and 109: FOI-R--3990--SE connected with Russ
Page 110 and 111: FOI-R--3990--SE The implementation
Page 112 and 113: FOI-R--3990--SE The issue of the li
Page 114 and 115: FOI-R--3990--SE factors are not rel
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Page 122 and 123: FOI-R--3990--SE Diagram 5: Ethnic s
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Page 126 and 127: FOI-R--3990--SE where young people
Page 128 and 129: FOI-R--3990--SE Diagram 10: Evaluat
Page 130 and 131: FOI-R--3990--SE The protection of R
Page 132 and 133: FOI-R--3990--SE Diagram 11: Dynamic
Page 134 and 135: FOI-R--3990--SE through the Russian
Page 136 and 137: FOI-R--3990--SE distant as well as
Page 138 and 139: FOI-R--3990--SE 2007 Documentary
Page 140 and 141: FOI-R--3990--SE 2014, Litgas, a g
Page 142 and 143: FOI-R--3990--SE halted Lithuania’
Page 144 and 145: FOI-R--3990--SE 6 Conclusions and I
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