COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

Group Management Report
200
144 Commerzbank Annual Report 2011
Outlook and opportunities
report
Future economic situation
The outlook for the global economy depends heavily on how the sovereign debt crisis in the
eurozone develops. Any escalation caused by open default of a euro country could trigger a
wave of uncertainty similar to the one seen after the collapse of the US investment bank
Lehman Brothers in autumn 2008 and not only plunge the eurozone economy into recession,
but also the entire world economy. However, if politicians manage to prevent such an escalation,
with heightened support from the ECB – on which we base our following assumptions –
then there is a good chance that the global economy will start to pick up this year.
The central banks of the developing nations have gradually shifted their focus over the
past few months. As inflationary risks have become less of an issue and they have been able
to concentrate more on supporting the economy, they have relaxed their monetary policies
again. This should help the economies in these countries start to grow quicker again after
the usual time lag. In the USA, the after-effects of the burst real estate bubble and high unemployment
will continue to prevent a strong upturn, which should actually be generated by
the US central bank’s extremely expansive monetary policy. These problems may eventually
fade in importance, however, allowing the US economy’s pace of growth to gradually rise.
Real gross domestic product
Year-on-year change
2011 20121 20131 USA 1.7% 2.0% 2.5%
Eurozone 1.6% – 0.4% 0.8%
Germany 3.0% 0.5% 1.3%
Central and Eastern Europe 3.7% 2.2% 3.3%
Poland 4.0% 2.2% 3.8%
1 The figures for 2012 and 2013 are all Commerzbank forecasts.
Table 11
The eurozone is also set to benefit from the somewhat more positive global economic environment,
and it should see some mild economic growth during 2012. This is also reflected
by business climate indicators, which recently have improved. Nevertheless, the still very
restrictive financial policy in many euro countries will continue to hold back the economy.