COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

40
Commerzbank AG
Outlook and opportunities report
Future economic situation
The outlook for the global economy is heavily dependent on how the sovereign debt crisis in
the eurozone develops. Any escalation caused by the default of a eurozone country could
trigger a shock wave of uncertainty similar to the one seen after the collapse of US investment
bank Lehman Brothers in autumn 2008. It would not only plunge the eurozone economy
into recession but the entire world economy as well. But if politicians manage, backed
by more and more support from the ECB, to prevent this type of escalation – which we assume
below – then there is a good chance that the global economy will start to pick up this
year.
The central banks of developing nations have been gradually shifting their focus over the
past few months. As they are having to focus less on fighting inflationary risks and more on
supporting the economy, they have started relaxing their monetary policies. After the usual
lag, this should help these economies grow more quickly. In the USA, the after-effects of the
burst real estate bubble and high unemployment will continue to prevent the strong upturn
that the Federal Reserve’s extremely expansive monetary policy would have actually engineered.
But these problems could gradually become less significant, leaving the US economy’s
pace of growth to pick up by degrees.
Real gross domestic product
Year-on-year change
2011 20121 20131 USA 1.7% 2.0% 2.5%
Eurozone 1.6% – 0.4% 0.8%
Germany 3.0% 0.5% 1.3%
Central and Eastern Europe 3.7% 2.2% 3.3%
Poland 4.0% 2.2% 3.8%
1 The figures for 2012 and 2013 are Commerzbank forecasts.
The eurozone is also set to benefit from the slight improvement in the global economic environment,
and should see some economic growth during 2012. This is also reflected by the
recent modest uptick in business climate indicators. Nevertheless, monetary policy remains
highly restrictive in many euro countries and will continue to hold back the economy. In
some countries, such as Spain, the excesses of the past in terms of corporate and consumer
debt and real estate lending have yet to fully correct; and uncertainty over the future of currency
union continues to persist. If the sovereign debt crisis were to deepen, despite the
ECB’s massive intervention, the eurozone could be quickly tipped back into recession. But
even if this does not happen, overall the eurozone economy is likely to contract slightly in
2012 and only start to pick up in 2013.