COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

To our Shareholders Corporate Responsibility Management Report Risk Report Group Financial Statements Further Information 147 203
127 71 Business and overall conditions
135 79 Earnings performance, assets and financial position
147 91 Segment performance
137 193 Our employees
143 199 Report on events after the reporting period
144 200 Outlook and opportunities report
Expected development in significant items in the
income statement
We anticipate the following developments in 2012 for individual items in the income statement:
We expect net interest income to fall slightly compared to 2011, in light of the following
key factors: low interest rates, which have a fundamental impact on net interest income; the
intensifying competition, particularly for deposits, which places more pressure on margins;
the reduction in non-strategic holdings; and the expectation of generally higher funding
costs. Although we expect positive effects in the core bank from both the expansion of business
volumes and the buyback of hybrid equity capital instruments and subordinated loans
over the medium term, it will be a challenge compensating for the aforementioned factors.
Any improvement in net commission income in 2012 will also depend on whether market
volatility continues to deter customers from investing. On the sales side, we will benefit from
the fact that there will be no further integration-related charges for our advisory teams. We
also expect higher commission income from foreign business and cash management activities.
Overall, we expect net commission income to be higher in 2012 than in 2011. It is difficult
to forecast trading profit, particularly in light of high volatility in the financial markets and
the resulting impact on financial instrument valuations. Nevertheless, we are still expecting net
trading income in 2012 to be largely the same as in 2011. We anticipate that loan loss provisions
in lending business will be no higher than €1.7bn in 2012. We will continue to manage operating
expenses rigorously in 2012, and we will also press ahead with cost synergies. As a result,
we expect operating expenses to be no higher than €7.6bn.
In light of these developments, the core bank should post another year of solid operating
profit. As last year showed, profit in the ABF and PRU segments will depend on how the
European sovereign debt crisis evolves, which is a highly political arena. Our operating profit
target for the first half of 2012 is €1.2bn. If the markets stabilise, we expect the positive
earnings contribution to be lower in the second half of the year, which is weaker due to seasonal
factors.
Financial outlook for the Commerzbank Group
Financing plans
Commerzbank’s Group Treasury is responsible for the Group’s capital and liquidity management.
To this end, Group Treasury relies on the results of the stable funding concept as a
basis for planning issues on the capital markets. This identifies the structural liquidity requirement
for the Bank’s core lending business as well as those assets that cannot be liquidated
within one year, and compares these to the liabilities available long-term to the Bank
(including core customer deposit bases).
Group Management Report