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State of World Population 2012 - Country Page List - UNFPA

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gender equality is much stronger and more<br />

direct at the household level than the microeconomic<br />

level or the macroeconomic level.<br />

But the individual and household impacts<br />

<strong>of</strong> family planning services—lower fertility,<br />

improved health, decreased mortality, greater<br />

investment in human capital, greater participation<br />

in the labour force and increased<br />

income and savings—also scale up at the more<br />

aggregate levels <strong>of</strong> communities and countries.<br />

These macro-level effects are sometimes difficult<br />

to identify because these variables are<br />

interrelated and are influenced by an enormous<br />

number <strong>of</strong> additional variables such as<br />

the institutional environment, the influence <strong>of</strong><br />

policy, wars and other major social, economic<br />

and political events. Though conclusive evidence<br />

<strong>of</strong> the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the relationships<br />

does not yet exist, some areas <strong>of</strong> consensus<br />

have emerged.<br />

One such area <strong>of</strong> consensus among economists,<br />

demographers and policymakers is<br />

recognition <strong>of</strong> the role <strong>of</strong> population age structures<br />

in economic development. Declines in<br />

fertility initially reduce the share <strong>of</strong> a country’s<br />

population that is young. For some time, the<br />

initial decline in the youth population that is<br />

dependent others for their basic needs is not<br />

<strong>of</strong>fset by increases in the share <strong>of</strong> the population<br />

that is older and dependent on others. At<br />

this point in the demographic transition, the<br />

relative size <strong>of</strong> a country’s working-age population<br />

increases. This one-time increase in the<br />

proportion <strong>of</strong> the working-age population that<br />

coincides with a one-time decrease in “dependency<br />

ratios” creates favorable conditions<br />

for economic development and is called the<br />

“demographic dividend.”<br />

At the macroeconomic level, the demographic<br />

transition reduces a number <strong>of</strong> challenges<br />

in countries that cannot easily keep up with<br />

investing in health and education <strong>of</strong> a large and<br />

rapidly growing youth population, and managing<br />

an essentially unlimited supply <strong>of</strong> labour.<br />

The demographic dividend also provides countries<br />

with opportunities to increase labour force<br />

participation, income, saving, investment, and<br />

social change, if policies are in place to invest<br />

in the human capital <strong>of</strong> this young group (via<br />

higher per-capita spending on health and<br />

education, greater investment in physical<br />

infrastructure and institutional development,<br />

and support for civic participation, among<br />

other things).<br />

“After fertility rates steadily decline over the course <strong>of</strong><br />

20 or 30 years, the number <strong>of</strong> income-generating adults<br />

grows relative to the number people who depend on them<br />

for support, thus creating more favourable conditions for<br />

economic growth and sustainable development.”<br />

Demographic dividends have been observed<br />

in East and Southeast Asia, Latin America, the<br />

Middle East and North Africa, and the Pacific<br />

Islands (Lee et al., 2010; Lee, 2003; Lee et al.,<br />

2001; Mason and Lee, 2004; Lee and Mason,<br />

2006; Bloom et al., 2009; Schultz, 2009). The<br />

dividend began in East Asia in the 1970s, in<br />

South Asia in the 1980s and in sub-Saharan<br />

Africa in the new millennium.<br />

Macro-level impact <strong>of</strong> family planning on<br />

savings, investment and growth<br />

Dependency ratios and the demographic<br />

dividend can affect economies and societies in<br />

numerous ways. In early stages <strong>of</strong> the demographic<br />

transition—when the share <strong>of</strong> the<br />

population that is young starts to grow—countries<br />

may be required to spend more on schools,<br />

health clinics, housing, and other infrastructure<br />

THE STATE OF WORLD POPULATION <strong>2012</strong><br />

83

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