REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

CEFTA-2006 AND ANHANCING COMPETITIVENESS OF THE REGION - SOME SECTORAL ASPECTS
of PSO routes remain under competence of the most competent and interested carriers.
The same implementation model is proposed for the region of Southeast Europe, applying
strictly terms and conditions of the EU.
4.
Air traffic forecast
Herein below there are the IATA forecast of passenger traffic volume for the period 2008-
2012, referring only to the international scheduled traffic. Respective data for the new born
state of Kosovo are included into the traffic forecast data of Serbia.
Base location
No.of
Cnty
Pair
Table 6: IATA Passenger Forecast 2008 – 2012
Passenger
Vol 2007
(000)
Forecast annual percent changes %
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAGR’08-’12
Albania 9 1,070 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3%
Bosnia-
Herzegovina
9 530 8.7% 8.4% 7.8% 7.6% 7.5% 8.0%
Bulgaria 29 4,540 7.4% 7.8% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1% 7.4%
Croatia 25 3,226 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%
Macedonia 11 610 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5%
Moldova 14 685 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.9% 9.3%
Montenegro 7 648 8.9% 8.0% 7.6% 7.1% 6.8% 7.7%
Romania 29 5,949 8.4% 7.8% 7.1% 6.7% 6.6% 7.3%
Serbia 30 2,851 8.8% 8.2% 7.3% 6.9% 6.6% 7.6%
Slovenia 26 1.323 8.3% 5.9% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2% 6.1%
Total 189 21,433 7.9% 7.6% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 7.2%
Source: IATA Passenger Forecast 2008 – 2012 (2008), Montreal – Geneva
According to the IATA forecast, the average annual growth rate in international scheduled
passenger traffic in the region for the period 2008–2012 amounts to 7.2%. The highest
average rate of growth is in Moldova (9.3%), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (8%). The
lowest rate of growth is forecast for Slovenia (6.1%), and Albania (6.3%). Consequently,
the volume of passenger transportation shall be increased within the period of 2008–2012
by eight million passengers. All leading carriers of the region (Croatia Airlines, Tarom,
Bulgaria Air-Hemus, Adria Airway, JAT …) must recognize here their opportunity for
future air transport development within the region.
Regarding the IATA cargo forecast for the region the average annual rate of growth for the
period 2008 – 2012 would be 4.6%. The highest average rate of growth is Slovenia (5.6%),
while the lowest average rate of growth is forecast for Bulgaria (3.7%).
IATA Forecast are published in the October 2008, but in the meantime forecasts for global
air transport volumes were significantly revised due to global economic crisis and recession
affecting whole Europe and the region.
Substantial downward revision of passenger traffic forecast (December 2008) air travel
post-financial sector crisis is 12% lower compared to pre-crisis industry forecast (2009-
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