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Figure 4.1 Under the fast track scenario, education outcomes are enhanced Population (billions) 8 Base case scenario Population (billions) 8 Fast track scenario 6 TERTIARY 6 TERTIARY SECONDARY SECONDARY 4 4 PRIMARY PRIMARY 2 NO EDUCATION 2 NO EDUCATION AGES 0–14 AGES 0–14 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Note: See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). Participation and inclusivity, valuable in their own right, also improve the quality of policies and their implementation and reduce the probability of future upheaval new channels through which citizens, particularly young people, can demand accountability. They are also enabling people in different countries to share values and experiences, bringing them closer together. The Internet and social media, as “low-cost aggregators” of public opinion, are amplifying people’s voices. In China, for example, the post-1990 generation is highly educated, politically aware and outspoken on social media. 19 Less than a week after the July 2011 high-speed train accident in Wenzhou, China’s two major microblogs (weibos) had distributed some 26 million messages commenting on the accident and expressing concerns about safety. 20 Social movements and media draw attention to specific issues, but this does not always result in political transformations that benefit the broader society. In India, for example, the Anna Hazare movement against corruption created pressure for change. Critics, however, point out that such movements can favour policies that may not be supported by the wider electorate. Thus, it is important to institutionalize participatory processes that can adjust the political balance by providing a platform for excluded citizens to demand accountability and redress of inequities, ranging from systemic discrimination to unfair and unjust exclusion. 21 Participation and inclusivity, valuable in their own right, also improve the quality of policies and their implementation and reduce the probability of future upheaval. Failure to build an accountable and responsive polity may foment discontent and civil strife. This can derail human development. History is replete with popular rebellions against unresponsive governments, as unrest deters investment and impedes growth and governments divert resources to maintaining law and order. In recent years, countries in both the North and the South have faced escalating crises of legitimacy that have pitted citizens against their institutions. Millions of people in the Arab States have risen to demand opportunities, respect and dignity as well as fuller citizenship and a new social contract with those who govern in their name. As a result, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have seen autocratic governments deposed, Yemen has embarked on an internationally brokered political transition, Jordan and Morocco have undertaken political reforms and Syrian Arab Republic is in the throes of civil war. One way to foster peaceful change is to allow civil society to mature through open 92 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
practice. Even under autocratic governments, Egypt and Tunisia, for example, had fairly well developed associational structures and self- disciplined political opposition movements. By contrast, Libya lacked such experience, which contributed to an all-out civil war. Building political cohesion after conflict is difficult in countries that lack a tradition of civic participation. Diverse experiences show that changes in political regimes do not automatically enhance voice, participation, inclusion or accountability or make states work more effectively. Accountability and inclusion are vital not only in the political sphere, but also in economic and social areas, through promoting job creation and social inclusion, especially in societies with a large and growing educated population. This requires effective mediating institutions; otherwise, modernization can be destabilizing. 22 This is not to suggest that people should be educated only if there are jobs for them—in the human development paradigm, access to knowledge and education is an end in itself—but recent social upheavals show that a mismatch between education and economic opportunity can lead to alienation and despair, especially among young people. Of the 20 countries with the largest increases in mean years of schooling over 1980–2010, 8 were in the Arab States (figure 4.2). In most of these countries, employment opportunities failed to keep pace with educational attainment. Most countries that were part of the recent unrest in the Arab States are in the lower right quadrant of figure 4.2, because they had major gains in educational attainment but below-median employment to population ratios. 23 It is hard to predict when societies will reach a tipping point. Many factors precipitate demands for change. When educated Accountability and inclusion are vital not only in the political sphere, but also in economic and social areas, through promoting job creation and social inclusion Figure 4.2 In most countries, employment opportunities have not kept pace with educational attainment Employment to population ratio (%) 85 Qatar 80 75 <strong>United</strong> Arab Emirates 70 65 60 55 Bahrain MEDIAN 50 45 40 35 Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Morocco Yemen Iraq Libya Saudi Arabia Egypt Tunisia Jordan Algeria 30 25 20 MEDIAN -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Change in mean years of schooling, 1980–2010 (years) Select Arab States Others Note: Analysis covers 141 countries. Employment to population ratios are for the most recent year available during 2006–2010. Source: Adapted from Campante and Chor (2012) using updated data. Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 93
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W N S E Human Development Report 20
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Human Development Report 2013 Team
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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Overview One of the most heartening
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Human Development Report also stres
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sudden opening but of gradual and s
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two scenarios for 2010-2050: a base
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messages and demands challenge gove
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Introduction When developed economi
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem of mankind
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Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
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Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
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Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
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Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Figure 1.6 Most regions show declin
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Progress in human development achie
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Box 1.7 Social competencies: human
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Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
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Not all countries have the precondi
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Page 143 and 144: References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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Key to HDI countries and ranks, 201
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Statistical references ADB (Asian D
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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