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Figure 4.4 Different environmental scenarios have different impacts on extreme poverty Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Population in extreme poverty (millions) 1,200 1,000 800 Environmental disaster scenario Population in extreme poverty (millions) 1,200 1,000 800 Environmental disaster scenario 600 600 400 400 200 0 Base case scenario 200 0 Base case scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). Table 4.3 Population in extreme poverty under the environmental disaster scenario, by region, 2010–2050 (millions) Difference Region 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Increase, 2010–2050 From base case scenario, 2050 From accelerated progress scenario, 2050 Arab States 25 25 39 73 145 120 128 144 East Asia and the Pacific 211 142 211 363 530 319 501 522 Europe and Central Asia 14 6 17 32 45 30 41 44 Latin America and the Caribbean 34 50 90 138 167 134 135 155 South Asia 557 530 738 978 1,207 650 1,126 1,194 Sub-Saharan Africa 371 377 496 709 1,055 685 788 995 World 1,212 1,129 1,592 2,293 3,150 1,938 2,720 3,054 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). age structure can have considerable effects on economic growth. 36 Over 1970–2010, the dependency ratio (the ratio of younger and older people to the working-age population ages 15– 64) declined sharply in most regions—most dramatically in East Asia and the Pacific, where it dropped 39.5%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the Arab States, where it fell 34%. Over 2010–2050, however, dependency ratios are likely to rise in medium, high and very high HDI countries, particularly in developed countries and in East Asia and the Pacific. In poorer regions, such as South Asia and Sub- Saharan Africa, dependency ratios will continue to fall, but more slowly. Changing demography will profoundly affect most countries in the South in coming decades, 96 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
ut in very different ways. Some poorer countries will benefit from a demographic dividend as the share of the population in the workforce rises. 37 Richer regions of the South, however, will confront the challenge of rising dependency ratios, with ageing populations and full school enrolment mirrored by a decline in the number of people earning incomes. In the long term, both demographic challenges can be mitigated by raising educational achievement. First, education accelerates reductions in fertility rates where they are still high. Second, education can boost labour productivity in richer countries with smaller workforces. At the same time, governments will need to foster job creation more actively to expand opportunities for productive employment for younger and older workers alike. The failure of economic opportunity and productivity to keep pace with these demographic changes can not only keep countries from benefiting from the demographic dividend, it can also threaten social stability, as seen in many countries in recent years. Modelling demography and education Demographic trends are not deterministic, however. They can be influenced, at least indirectly, by education policies and sometimes by migration policies. 38 Effective policy options can be identified by modelling demographic and education trends. 39 Two scenarios for 2010–2050 illustrate the impact of different policy responses: the base case scenario, in which enrolment ratios remain constant at each level of education, and a fast track scenario, in which countries with the lowest initial education levels embrace ambitious education targets. 40 The dependency ratio is an increasingly critical concern. A high dependency ratio can impoverish a country and lead to reversals in human development. The base case scenario projects a 9.7 percentage point decline in the dependency ratio over 2010–2050 for low HDI countries, a 9 percentage point increase for medium HDI countries, a 15.2 percentage point increase for high HDI countries and a 28.7 percentage point increase for very high HDI countries (figure 4.5). Under the fast track scenario, the dependency ratio for low HDI countries drops 21.1 percentage points over 2010–2050, more than twice the decrease under the base case scenario. The dependency ratio rises more slowly under the fast track scenario than under the base case scenario for medium HDI countries (6.1 percentage points) and high HDI countries (4.9 percentage points); however, this rise is less pronounced for very high HDI countries. Under the base case scenario, the share of the elderly in the population rises for all HDI groups: 3.9 percentage points for low HDI countries, 17.7 percentage points for medium HDI countries, 20.2 percentage points for high HDI countries and 22.3 percentage points for very high HDI countries. 41 Over 2010–2050, the share of the young population is projected to fall in all HDI groups. For low HDI countries, the dependency ratio will decrease because the decline in the share of the young population is greater than the rise in the share of the elderly population. In the Arab States, South Asia and Sub- Saharan Africa, the dependency ratio is projected to decline under the base case scenario and even faster under the fast track scenario. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the dependency ratio falls 11.8 percentage points under the base case scenario and 25.7 percentage points under the fast track scenario. In East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, the dependency ratio is projected to increase. East Asia and the Pacific will see a striking increase in the share of the elderly—up 25.8 percentage points, which is an even greater rise than in very high HDI countries. Brazil and Chile demonstrate the potential for ambitious education policies to alter dependency ratios. In Brazil, the dependency ratio rises 15.6 percentage points under the base case scenario but only 10.8 percentage points under the fast track scenario (table 4.4). Chile would see a similar increase, 20.2 percentage points and 17.3 percentage points. The challenges differ considerably by country under the two scenarios. Under the base case scenario, China would experience a more rapid increase (27.3 percentage points) than, say, Thailand (23.9 percentage points) or Indonesia Demographic trends are not deterministic. They can be influenced by education policies and sometimes by migration policies Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 97
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W N S E Human Development Report 20
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Human Development Report 2013 Team
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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Overview One of the most heartening
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Human Development Report also stres
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sudden opening but of gradual and s
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two scenarios for 2010-2050: a base
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messages and demands challenge gove
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Introduction When developed economi
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem of mankind
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Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
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Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
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Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
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Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Figure 1.6 Most regions show declin
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Progress in human development achie
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Box 1.7 Social competencies: human
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Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
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Not all countries have the precondi
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“When the music changes, so does
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Box 2.1 The South’s integration w
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Page 143 and 144: References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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Statistical references ADB (Asian D
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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