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Around the world people are calling on governments to become more accountable to citizens and to expand public opportunities to influence policymaking Figure 4.3 young people cannot find work, they tend to feel aggrieved. Average years of schooling have risen over the past 30 years in all countries with data available. 24 Yet grievances alone do not trigger upheavals. The public can be angry, but if people believe that the cost in time and effort to engage in political action outweighs the likelihood of real change, they may not act. 25 Mass protests, especially by educated people, tend to erupt when bleak prospects for economic opportunities lower the opportunity cost of engaging in political activity. These “effort- intensive forms of political participation” 26 are then easily coordinated through new forms of mass communication. Around the world people are calling on governments to become more accountable to citizens and to expand public opportunities to influence policymaking. Such transformations have taken place in the past. For example, Karl Polanyi documented the Great Transformation of 1944, where governments in the North At each HDI level, some countries have greater carbon productivity than others Carbon productivity, 2008 (PPP $ per kilogram) 40 30 20 10 0 0.275 0.375 0.475 0.575 0.675 0.775 0.875 0.975 Low HDI Medium HDI Note: Carbon productivity is GDP per unit of carbon dioxide. PPP is purchasing power parity. Source: HDRO calculations based on World Bank (2012a). High HDI HDI Very high HDI responded to demands from civil society and labour unions to regulate the market and extend social protection so that the market served society rather than society being subservient to the market. 27 Many governments introduced regulations to constrain the activities of firms and improve working conditions and extended social services and social protection. Governments also assumed power over macroeconomic policy and introduced some restrictions on international trade. The time may be right again for a transformation, appropriate for 21st century concerns and conditions. 28 Confronting environmental pressures A major challenge for the world is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While it might seem that carbon productivity (GDP per unit of carbon dioxide) would rise with human development, the correlation is quite weak (figure 4.3). At each HDI level, some countries have greater carbon productivity than others. Consider medium HDI Guatemala and Morocco, countries with nearly identical HDI values. Guatemala’s carbon productivity ($5.00 per kilogram in purchasing power parity terms) is nearly twice that of Morocco ($2.60). Differences can be just as great among provinces or states within countries, as in China. 29 These findings reinforce the arguments that progress in human development need not worsen carbon use and that improved environmental policy can accompany human development. To sustain progress in human development, far more attention needs to be paid to the impact human beings are having on the environment. The goal is high human development and a low ecological footprint per capita (the lower right quadrant of figure 1.7 in chapter 1). Only a few countries come close to creating such a globally reproducible high level of human development without exerting unsustainable pressure on the planet’s ecological resources. Meeting this challenge on a global scale requires that all countries adjust their development pathway: developed countries will need to reduce their ecological footprint, while developing countries will need to raise their HDI value without increasing their ecological footprint. Innovative clean technologies will pay an important part in this. 94 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
While environmental threats such as climate change, deforestation, air and water pollution, and natural disasters affect everyone, they hurt poor countries and poor communities most. Climate change is already exacerbating chronic environmental threats, and ecosystem losses are constraining livelihood opportunities, especially for poor people. A clean and safe environment should be seen as a right, not a privilege. The 2011 Human Development Report highlighted that equity and sustainability are inextricably linked. Sustainable societies need policies and structural changes that align human development and climate change goals through low-emission, climate-resilient strategies and innovative public-private financing mechanisms. 30 Most disadvantaged people contribute little to global environmental deterioration, but they often bear the brunt of its impacts. 31 For example, although low HDI countries contribute the least to global climate change, they are likely to experience the greatest loss in annual rainfall and the sharpest increases in its variability, with dire implications for agricultural production and livelihoods. The magnitude of such losses highlights the urgency of adopting coping measures to increase people’s resilience to global climate change. 32 Natural disasters, which are increasing in frequency and intensity, cause enormous economic damage and loss of human capabilities. In 2011 alone, natural disasters accompanying earthquakes (tsunamis, landslides and ground settlements) resulted in more than 20,000 deaths and damages totalling $365 billion, including loss of homes for about a million people. 33 The impact has been severe for small island developing states, some of which have incurred losses of 1% of GDP—and some as much as 8% or even multiples of their GDP. St. Lucia, for example, lost almost four times its GDP in 1988 from Hurricane Gilbert, and Granada lost twice its GDP in 2004 from Hurricane Ivan. 34 The 2011 Human Development Report examined several environmental scenarios. The “environmental challenge” scenario factored in the anticipated adverse effects of global warming on agricultural production, access to clean water and improved sanitation, and pollution. Under this scenario, the average global HDI value would be 8% lower by 2050 than under the “base case” scenario, which assumes a continuation but not a worsening of current environmental trends. Most dramatically, the average regional HDI value in both South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa would be 12% lower under the environmental challenge scenario than under the base case scenario. Under a more severe “environmental disaster” scenario, the global HDI value in 2050 would fall 15% below that under the baseline scenario—22% below in South Asia and 24% below in Sub- Saharan Africa, effectively halting or even reversing decades of human development progress in both regions. This Report looks more specifically at the impact of these environmental scenarios on the number of people living in extreme income poverty (figure 4.4). Some 3.1 billion more people would live in extreme income poverty in 2050 under the environmental disaster scenario than under the accelerated progress scenario (table 4.3). Under the base case scenario, by contrast, the number of people in extreme income poverty worldwide would decline by 2050. Some 2.7 billion more people would live in extreme income poverty under the environmental disaster scenario than under the base case scenario, a consequence of two interrelated factors. First, the model shows an increase of 1.9 billion people in extreme income poverty due to environmental degradation. Second, environmental calamities would keep some 800 million poor people from rising out of extreme income poverty, as they would otherwise have done under the base case scenario (see Technical appendix). These outcomes underscore a central message of this Report: environmental threats are among the most grave impediments to lifting human development, and their consequences for poverty are likely to be high. The longer action is delayed, the higher the cost will be. Managing demographic change Between 1970 and 2011, the world population swelled from 3.6 billion to 7 billion. Development prospects are influenced by the age structure of the population, as well as its size. 35 Declining fertility rates and shifts in Some 3.1 billion more people would live in extreme income poverty in 2050 under an environmental disaster scenario than under the accelerated progress scenario Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 95
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W N S E Human Development Report 20
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Human Development Report 2013 Team
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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Overview One of the most heartening
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Human Development Report also stres
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sudden opening but of gradual and s
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two scenarios for 2010-2050: a base
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messages and demands challenge gove
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Introduction When developed economi
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem of mankind
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Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
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Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
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Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
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Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Figure 1.6 Most regions show declin
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Progress in human development achie
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Box 1.7 Social competencies: human
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Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
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Not all countries have the precondi
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“When the music changes, so does
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Page 112 and 113: Box 4.2 China and Ghana: who benefi
Page 114 and 115: Figure 4.8 countries thus converge
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Page 124 and 125: Box 5.2 Jo Leinen, Member of the Eu
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Page 137 and 138: Notes Overview 1 Atsmon and others
Page 139 and 140: 25 Blinder 2006. 26 UNIDO 2009. 27
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Page 143 and 144: References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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Page 153 and 154: Statistical acknowledgements The Re
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Statistical references ADB (Asian D
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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