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Figure 4.5 Education policies can alter dependency ratios Low HDI Medium HDI Dependency ratio Dependency ratio 0.95 0.95 0.85 0.85 0.75 0.75 0.65 Base case 0.65 0.55 Fast track 0.55 Base case Fast track 0.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 High HDI Very high HDI Dependency ratio Dependency ratio 0.95 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.85 0.75 Base case Fast track 0.65 0.55 Base case Fast track 0.65 0.55 0.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0.45 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Note: See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). (8.7 percentage points), countries where even a more ambitious education policy would have only a limited impact on dependency ratios because education levels are already high. Countries can respond to a declining labour force in various ways. They can reduce unemployment, promote labour productivity and foster greater labour force participation, particularly among women and older workers. They can also outsource work to offshore production and attract international migrants. 42 Without proper policy measures, demographic dynamics can increase inequality in the short run, given that differences in the speed of the demographic transition across households give richer households an initial advantage. Declining fertility rates and shifts in age structures can affect economic growth. 43 Reinforcing the cross-country analysis conducted for this Report, a recent study finds that youth dependency ratios tend to be higher for poor households and lower for wealthier ones, especially in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, and that differences in youth dependency ratios between rich and poor dissipate over time. 44 During demographic transitions, 98 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
Table 4.4 Trends in dependency ratios, selected countries, 1970–2050 Country 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bangladesh 0.929 0.946 0.859 0.704 0.560 Brazil 0.846 0.724 0.656 0.540 0.480 Chile 0.811 0.629 0.564 0.540 0.457 China 0.773 0.685 0.514 0.481 0.382 Ghana 0.934 0.946 0.887 0.799 0.736 India 0.796 0.759 0.717 0.638 0.551 Indonesia 0.868 0.807 0.673 0.547 0.483 Thailand 0.904 0.756 0.532 0.447 0.417 Turkey 0.850 0.787 0.671 0.560 0.478 Base case 0.462 0.434 0.433 0.481 Fast track 0.457 0.422 0.418 0.465 Base case 0.443 0.484 0.540 0.637 Fast track 0.437 0.460 0.499 0.589 Base case 0.471 0.549 0.609 0.659 Fast track 0.467 0.531 0.582 0.630 Base case 0.408 0.450 0.587 0.655 Fast track 0.404 0.434 0.562 0.628 Base case 0.704 0.656 0.643 0.645 Fast track 0.686 0.595 0.548 0.532 Base case 0.518 0.496 0.491 0.511 Fast track 0.510 0.474 0.463 0.480 Base case 0.452 0.457 0.504 0.571 Fast track 0.451 0.454 0.501 0.567 Base case 0.426 0.488 0.576 0.656 Fast track 0.425 0.484 0.570 0.650 Base case 0.458 0.467 0.504 0.585 Fast track 0.450 0.443 0.473 0.547 Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. the wealthiest people tend to lead the decline in fertility, producing a short-term increase in income inequality as they capture the benefits of demographic change first. Then the middle class catches up as its members educate daughters and plan families, followed by the poor. Eventually fertility is lower across all income groups, and the economic benefits of the demographic dividend are spread more evenly. 45 This is consistent with previous studies for Latin America and Africa. 46 This short-term rise in inequality is not inevitable, however, and can be influenced by public policies, especially in education and reproductive health, that enable the benefits of the demographic transition to reach all income groups at the same time. Consider the three countries with the largest declines in child dependency ratios: Côte d’Ivoire (with a GDP per capita in 2011 of $1,800), Namibia ($6,800) and Peru ($10,300). In Côte d’Ivoire, the dependency ratio fell most among the rich and least among the poor; in Namibia, it fell most in the middle of the income range; and in Peru, it fell across the board in roughly equal amounts. 47 See box 4.2 for a discussion of the distribution of the benefits of the demographic dividend in China and Ghana. In 13 of 18 countries with a declining dependency ratio and rising female education over 1970–2010, rising labour productivity over 1980–2008 and falling unemployment over 2005–2010, the female labour participation rate grew faster than the overall labour participation rate over 2000–2004 to 2005–2010, indicating greater gender balance in the labour market. Employment, however, did not necessarily become easier as education levels rose. Indeed, in some countries, the labour market situation became tighter for better educated female workers. Additional policy measures are needed to promote labour market conditions that offer productive opportunities for a more qualified and expanded labour force. Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 99
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W N S E Human Development Report 20
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Human Development Report 2013 Team
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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Overview One of the most heartening
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Human Development Report also stres
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sudden opening but of gradual and s
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two scenarios for 2010-2050: a base
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messages and demands challenge gove
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Introduction When developed economi
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem of mankind
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Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
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Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
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Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
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Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Figure 1.6 Most regions show declin
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Progress in human development achie
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Box 1.7 Social competencies: human
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Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
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Not all countries have the precondi
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“When the music changes, so does
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Box 2.1 The South’s integration w
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Figure 2.1 As a share of world merc
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Page 143 and 144: References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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