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Unless people can participate meaningfully in the events and processes that shape their lives, national human development paths will be neither desirable nor sustainable policy interventions will also have a positive impact on the fight against poverty. By contrast, the costs of inaction will rise, especially in low HDI countries, which are more vulnerable. For instance, failing to implement ambitious universal education policies will adversely affect many essential pillars of human development for future generations. Enabling voice and participation Unless people can participate meaningfully in the events and processes that shape their lives, national human development paths will be neither desirable nor sustainable. People should be able to influence policymaking and results—and young people in particular should be able to look forward to greater economic opportunities and political participation and accountability. Dissatisfaction is increasingly high in both the North and the South as people call for more opportunities to voice their concerns and influence policy in order to ensure basic social protection and social progress. Among the most active protesters are young people. In part this is a response to limited employment opportunities for educated young people. History is replete with popular rebellions against unresponsive governments. Such upheaval can derail human development—as unrest impedes investment and growth and autocratic governments divert resources to maintaining law and order. It is hard to predict when societies will reach a tipping point. Mass protests, especially by educated people, tend to erupt when people feel excluded from political influence and when bleak economic prospects lower the opportunity cost of engaging in such protests. These effort-intensive forms of political participation are then easily coordinated by new forms of mass communication. Confronting environmental challenges Environmental threats such as climate change, deforestation, air and water pollution, and natural disasters affect everyone. But they hurt poor countries and poor communities most. Climate change is already exacerbating chronic environmental threats, and ecosystem losses are constraining livelihood opportunities, especially for poor people. Although low HDI countries contribute the least to global climate change, they are likely to endure the greatest loss in annual rainfall and the sharpest increase in its variability, with dire implications for agricultural production and livelihoods. The magnitude of such losses highlights the urgency of adaptation measures. The cost of inaction will likely be high. The longer the inaction, the higher the cost. To ensure sustainable economies and societies, new policies and structural changes are needed that align human development and climate change goals in low-emission, climate-resilient strategies and innovative public-private financing mechanisms. Managing demographic change Between 1970 and 2011, world population increased from 3.6 billion to 7 billion. As that population becomes more educated, its growth rate will slow. Moreover, development prospects are influenced not just by the total number of people, but also by the population’s age structure. An increasingly critical concern is a country’s dependency ratio—that is, the number of younger and older people divided by the working-age population ages 15–64. Some poorer regions could benefit from a “demographic dividend” as the share of the working-age population rises, but only if there is strong policy action. 3 Girls’ education is a critical vehicle of a possible demographic dividend. Educated women tend to have fewer, healthier and better educated children; in many countries educated women also enjoy higher salaries than do uneducated workers. By contrast, the richer regions of the South confront a very different problem: as their population ages, the share of the working-age population falls. The rate of population ageing matters because developing countries will struggle to meet the needs of an older population if they are still poor. Many developing countries now have only a short window of opportunity to reap the full benefits of the demographic dividend. Demographic trends are not destiny, however. They can be altered through education policies in particular. This Report presents 6 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
two scenarios for 2010–2050: a base case scenario, in which current education trends continue, and a fast track scenario, in which the countries with the lowest initial levels embrace ambitious education targets. For low HDI countries, the decline in the dependency ratio under the fast track scenario is more than twice that under the base case scenario. Ambitious education policies can enable medium and high HDI countries to curb projected increases in their dependency ratio, thus easing the demographic transition towards an ageing population. Addressing these demographic challenges will require raising educational attainment levels while expanding productive employment opportunities—by reducing unemployment, promoting labour productivity and increasing labour force participation, particularly among women and older workers. Governance and partnerships for a new era The rise of the South is providing both opportunities and challenges for the formidable problems of an increasingly interconnected world. Challenges such as management of climate change; use of global commons; and regulation of trade, finance and migration have cross-border consequences. Some elements of global public goods can be provided at the regional level, but effective provision usually requires considerable multilateral coordination and cooperation. Neither the North nor the newly influential South can sit out the regional or global dialogues needed to forge agreement on these issues. Countries of the South are in a position not just to contribute financial resources towards strengthening regional and multilateral processes, but also to bring the substantial experience gained through their human development achievements and pragmatic policies in many of these areas. The South has promoted new arrangements and institutions such as bilateral and regional trade agreements and financial mechanisms. Consequently, today’s systems of international governance are a mosaic of old structures and new arrangements. And they may become even more diverse: international cooperation is likely to involve an ever more complex web of bilateral, regional and global processes. Many of the current institutions and principles for international governance were designed for a world very different from today’s. One consequence is that they underrepresent the South. To survive, international institutions need to be more representative, transparent and accountable. Indeed, all intergovernmental processes would be invigorated by greater participation from the South, which can bring substantial financial, technological and human resources as well as valuable solutions to critical world problems. In all of this, governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty. While appropriate in some cases, this focus can encourage zero-sum thinking. A better strategy would be “responsible sovereignty”, whereby countries engage in fair, rule-based and accountable international cooperation, joining in collective endeavours that enhance global welfare. Responsible sovereignty also requires that states ensure the human rights security and safety of their citizenry. According to this view, sovereignty is not just a right, but also a responsibility. The current context has profound implications for the provision of public goods. Among the areas meriting urgent attention are those related to trade, migration and climate change. In some cases, public goods can be delivered by regional institutions, which can avoid the polarization that sometimes slows progress in larger, multilateral forums. But increasing regional cooperation may have disadvantages—adding to a complex, multilevel and fragmented tapestry of institutions. The challenge therefore is to ensure “coherent pluralism”—so that institutions at all levels work in a broadly coordinated fashion. International governance institutions can be held to account not just by member states, but also by global civil society. Civil society organizations have already influenced global transparency and rule setting on such issues as aid, debt, human rights, health and climate change. Networks of civil society now take advantage of new media and new communications technologies. Yet civil society organizations also face questions about their legitimacy and accountability and may take undesirable forms. all intergovernmental processes would be invigorated by greater participation from the South, which can bring substantial financial, technological and human resources as well as valuable solutions to critical world problems Overview | 7
Page 1 and 2: W N S E Human Development Report 20
Page 3 and 4: Human Development Report 2013 The R
Page 5 and 6: Human Development Report 2013 Team
Page 7 and 8: Finally, the Report also calls for
Page 9 and 10: Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
Page 11 and 12: 3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
Page 13 and 14: Overview One of the most heartening
Page 15 and 16: Human Development Report also stres
Page 17: sudden opening but of gradual and s
Page 21 and 22: messages and demands challenge gove
Page 23 and 24: Introduction When developed economi
Page 25 and 26: leading economies—Brazil, China a
Page 27 and 28: comparable access to information, e
Page 29 and 30: mobile phones: cellular banking is
Page 32 and 33: “The political problem of mankind
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
Page 36 and 37: Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
Page 40 and 41: Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
Page 42 and 43: Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Page 46 and 47: Progress in human development achie
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Page 50 and 51: Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
Page 52 and 53: Not all countries have the precondi
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Page 62 and 63: Figure 2.3 Between 2000 and 2010, I
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Instead of having a centre of indus
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Figure 2.6 Emerging market economie
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developing countries trade more amo
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“We cannot expect that all nation
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Table 3.1 Selected developing count
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A common feature of countries that
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More important than getting prices
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Box 3.5 Eastern Europe and Central
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states have to be conscious that th
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As countries develop, they tend to
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Having weathered the Asian financia
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providing public services that cont
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Advancing health requires more than
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Universal public health and educati
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• China. The Minimum Livelihood G
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“Each generation will reap what t
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concerns will make for a complex en
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A greater emphasis on education can
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Figure 4.1 Under the fast track sce
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Around the world people are calling
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Figure 4.4 Different environmental
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Figure 4.5 Education policies can a
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Box 4.2 China and Ghana: who benefi
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Figure 4.8 countries thus converge
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“Let us join hands to try to crea
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Areas of global international conce
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Addressing climate change requires
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International governance is increas
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Box 5.2 Jo Leinen, Member of the Eu
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facilitates reserve investments and
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esponsible sovereignty takes the lo
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Figure 5.1 Under the accelerated pr
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Good policymaking requires greater
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a fair and less unequal world requi
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Notes Overview 1 Atsmon and others
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25 Blinder 2006. 26 UNIDO 2009. 27
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which is 61.7 deaths per 1,000 live
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References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_
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Kamau, P., D. McCormick, and N. Pin
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Labor Administration. Geneva: Inter
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Statistical acknowledgements The Re
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Key to HDI countries and ranks, 201
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Statistical references ADB (Asian D
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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