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Figure 4.8 countries thus converge towards the levels of human development achieved by high and very high HDI countries. Ambitious, fully integrated policies can thus provide strong leverage for advancing human development (figure 4.8). The effects are strongest for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, followed by the Arab States and Latin America and the Caribbean. The impacts are weaker in Europe and Central Asia and in East Asia and the Pacific. Across all regions, the greatest impacts result from policy interventions in health and education. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, ambitious policies raise HDI value in 2050 from 0.612 under the base case scenario to 0.651. In most regions, improving governance has the next greatest impact through progress on reducing corruption, strengthening democratic institutions and empowering women. In South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, however, infrastructure investment is even more important. Human development outcomes through 2050 improve more under the accelerated progress scenario HDI 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Note: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and accelerated progress scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). 2050 Accelerated progress scenario: very high HDI countries Base case scenario: very high HDI countries Accelerated progress scenario: low, medium and high HDI countries Base case scenario: low, medium and high HDI countries The two scenarios show notable differences in the individual dimensions of the HDI. In Sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy rises from 53.7 years in 2010 to 69.4 in 2050 under the base case scenario, partly in response to sustained progress against HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases, but to 72.9 under the accelerated progress scenario. Over the same period, the average years of formal education in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to rise from 4.3 to 6.7 under the base case scenario, but to 8.1 under the accelerated progress scenario. The gains under the accelerated progress scenario are even larger for GDP per capita (figure 4.9). This is true for all HDI groups, where differences across scenarios are considerable in both cases. Globally, GDP per capita would rise from $8,770 in 2010 to $17,873 in 2050 under the base case scenario and to $27,995 under the accelerated progress scenario. The largest differential gains would be in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia. In Sub-Saharan Africa, GDP per capita would rise from $1,769 in 2010 to $5,730 in 2050 under the base case scenario and to an impressive $13,210 under the accelerated progress scenario—more than double the level under the base case scenario. Under the accelerated progress scenario, South Asia would see a stunning rise from $2,871 to $23,661. The differential rise in income directly influences poverty reduction. Under the base case scenario, income poverty almost disappears in China but decreases only marginally in Sub- Saharan Africa, as the population continues to grow, and remains high in India, which would still have more than 130 million poor people in 2030. Under the accelerated progress scenario, the number of poor people falls much more rapidly, nearly disappearing in some countries and regions (table 4.5). Substantially reducing poverty by 2050 depends on ambitious policy measures. Failing to act boldly to avert the environmental disaster scenario, for instance, would severely inhibit poverty reduction. Seizing the moment Greater progress in human development is both possible and imperative. But accelerating 102 | HUMAN DevELOPMENT REPORT 2013
progress will require coordinated policy measures across development fronts. One of the most important of these is equity, because more- equitable societies fare better in most aspects of well-being and are more sustainable. Another is reducing child mortality: rapid progress is possible in all countries through education, particularly of women. Policies also need to consider other forces that will influence development, especially people’s meaningful participation in the processes that shape their lives. Demand for participation grows as people become more educated and more connected. Other major issues are environmental and demographic change; countries need to act during brief windows of opportunity to avoid high costs in forgone human development. Most of the opportunities for sustaining and even accelerating the momentum in human development lie in the hands of national governments. In an increasingly globalized world, however, governments do not act alone. The final chapter considers the complex web of international arrangements with which national governments need to engage and how regional and global institutions can work more effectively for sustainable human development. Figure 4.9 Advances in GDP per capita through 2050 are especially strong under the accelerated progress scenario GDP per capita (2000 PPP $ thousands) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Note: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and accelerated progress scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). 2050 Accelerated progress scenario: very high HDI countries Base case scenario: very high HDI countries Accelerated progress scenario: low, medium and high HDI countries Base case scenario: low, medium and high HDI countries Table 4.5 Number of people in extreme poverty by region and selected countries, base case and accelerated progress scenarios, 2010–2050 (millions) Region or country 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050, base case 2050, accelerated progress Arab States 25 19 17 16 17 1 East Asia and the Pacific 211 74 42 29 29 9 China 94 13 5 1 1 0 Europe and Central Asia 14 2 3 3 4 1 Latin America and the Caribbean 34 29 26 27 32 13 South Asia 557 382 243 135 81 13 India 416 270 134 53 21 2 Sub-Saharan Africa 371 333 297 275 267 60 World 1,212 841 627 485 430 96 Note: Extreme poverty is defined as $1.25 a day in purchasing power parity terms. See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios. Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013). Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 103
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W N S E Human Development Report 20
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Human Development Report 2013 The R
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Human Development Report 2013 Team
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Musa, Thangaval Palanivel, Anuradha
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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Overview One of the most heartening
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Human Development Report also stres
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sudden opening but of gradual and s
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two scenarios for 2010-2050: a base
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messages and demands challenge gove
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Introduction When developed economi
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem of mankind
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Box 1.1 Fairness, macroeconomics an
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Box 1.3 Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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Figure 1.1 Income per capita is ris
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Box 1.4 Subjective indicators of we
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Figure 1.4 There is notable variati
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Figure 1.6 Most regions show declin
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Progress in human development achie
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Box 1.7 Social competencies: human
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Table 1.3 Inequality and satisfacti
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Not all countries have the precondi
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“When the music changes, so does
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Box 2.1 The South’s integration w
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Figure 2.1 As a share of world merc
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Box 2.2 Acquisitions by the South o
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Figure 2.3 Between 2000 and 2010, I
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Page 137 and 138: Notes Overview 1 Atsmon and others
Page 139 and 140: 25 Blinder 2006. 26 UNIDO 2009. 27
Page 141 and 142: which is 61.7 deaths per 1,000 live
Page 143 and 144: References Abdurazakov, A., A. Mins
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Page 153 and 154: Statistical acknowledgements The Re
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Statistical references ADB (Asian D
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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E N S W - United Nations Development Programme

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