Transportation 2035 - State of Rhode Island: Division of Planning

December 2012STATEWIDE TRAVEL MODELA statewide travel demand model is used to evaluate the transportation system in Rhode Island. This model uses socio-economic data developed by theStatewide Planning Program (population and employment forecasts), together with vehicle trip data collected by RIDOT (HPMS traffic counts), and formulasbased on nationally accepted standard practices to project future travel on the state’s roadways. The following system-wide indicators of travel result from thiseffort.Rhode Island Travel ModelTravel Indicator 2012 2015 2025 2035Daily number of trips 4,337,916 4,408,640 4,654,492 4,837,062Daily vehicle miles of travel (VMT) 24,257,378 24,684,051 26,119,290 27,388,290Daily vehicle hours of travel (VHT) 663,645 672,362 720,954 761,840Average trip length (miles) 9.86 9.91 10.02 10.20Average trip time (min) 15.47 15.50 15.79 16.13Average vehicle speed (mph) 38.24 38.36 38.08 27.92The VMT above have been calibrated to be consistent with Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data, which are actual traffic counts reported toFHWA. The model’s population and employment are based on 2000 U.S. Census data and reflect the Statewide Planning Program’s current population andemployment projections.The model indicates that moderate growth in travel is forecast, coinciding with increases in population and employment. Themodel also indicates that average trip length will increase slightly. This is due to continuing (but slowed) movement of populationto suburban and rural Rhode Island. Average travel time is forecast to increase due to two factors: dispersion of developmentand increasing congestion. A better indicator of congestion is average vehicle speed, which is expected to decrease as well.See Map # 1-7CongestedHighways 2012 andMap # 1-8CongestedHighways 2035Overall, the level of travel is not anticipated to change dramatically. There will be more travel, with individuals travelingsomewhat farther. Congestion will cause travel to take longer. On a system-wide basis, there is concern about growingcongestion without corresponding increase in roadway capacity. Congested conditions can be expected to occur mostly during peak travel hours and /or whenthere is an incident such as highway construction, a severe weather event, or a crash. It will become more important to clear crashes from roadways as quicklyas possible.Transportation 2035 (2012 Update)State Guide Plan Element 611Rhode Island Statewide Planning ProgramPage 1-26