Agroindustrial project analysi

184 AGROINDUSTRIAL PROJECT ANALYSISOl How sensitive are sales and profit estimates to changes in theassumptions?Are the forecasting methods appropriate?O Who provided the judgmental estimates?Ol What was the basis of their expertise?El Can other relevant opinions be gathered?El If trend projections were made, how representative were thehistorical series?El Were seasonal, secular, cyclical, or random variations in theseries considered?O Were moving averages or exponential weighting techniquesemployed?El If a regression analysis was used, was it simple or multiple,arithmetic or logarithmic?El Were estimates made of price and income elasticity of demand?El If an econometric model was used, what were the variables?El What causal relationships are assumed in the model?El Are these assumptions reasonable?El Is the accuracy of the projection acceptable, given the riskand uncertainty?L1 How much could the accuracy be increased by using a moresophisticated technique?El Would the incremental accuracy justify the added cost?El Is the previously used forecasting method still appropriate?E How do the possible forecasting techniques rank in cost,accuracy, skill requirements, data requirements, and speed?THE PROCUREMENTFACTORAdequate QuantityWhat was the total production pattern?El What were the production levels? by region? for the past fiveyears?E How variable was output?El What factors affected the variability?What is the usage pattern of the area planted?E How much variation has there been in planted area?El How much land is economically arable but uncultivated?