The Challenge of Low-Carbon Development - World Bank Internet ...

of interventions, from technical assistance to financing toregulatory reform. This project-eye view of activities pertainsto all the action areas of the SFDCC (see box 1.1).The third phase will look at the challenge of adaptation toclimate change.The WBG’s resources—human and financial—are smallcompared to the task at hand. The International EnergyAgency estimates that developing and transition countriesneed $16 trillion of energy sector investments over2008–30 under “business as usual” operations—plus anadditional $5 trillion to shift to an ambitiously low-carbonpath (IEA 2009). Much more is needed for sustainableland and forest management and for urban transport. So aprime focus of this evaluation is how the WBG can get themost leverage—the widest positive impact on both developmentand climate change mitigation—from its limitedresources.Climate ContextClimate change is a threat to developmentClimate change threatens development (Parry and others2007; World Bank 2010). Most of this burden falls on developingcountries. Coastal areas will be exposed to inundation,flooding, and brackish water supplies. Snowmelt-fedwatersheds will face winter floods and summer droughts.Crop yields will fall in many areas. Infrastructure, designedto cope with an increasingly unpredictable climate, willbecome more expensive.Most of the climate change burden falls ondeveloping countries.Uncertainty about the magnitude of these impactsstrengthens rather than weakens the case for urgent action.To quantify this uncertainty, researchers (Sokolov and others2009) ran a climate change model under hundreds ofdifferent assumptions about economic growth, technicalchange, and climate response. The range of outcomesrepresents, in their view, the gamble that the world takesfrom inaction. They found that, absent climate mitigation,there is a 24 percent chance that average global temperatureswill rise this century by more than 6 degrees Celsius(13 degrees Fahrenheit). 1 A change of this magnitude,during the lifetime of many alive today, would be broadlycatastrophic.Managing climate risk requires urgent, globallycooperative actionTo mitigate these risks, the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC), to which virtuallyall countries subscribe, sets a goal of stabilizing the quantityof heat-trapping GHG in the atmosphere. Although preciselimits have not been agreed on, the 2009 CopenhagenAccord called for limiting the global increase in temperature(relative to preindustrial times) to 2 degrees Celsius, oftenequated with an atmospheric GHG concentration limit of450 CO 2-equivalent (CO 2e) parts per million. 2It will be difficult or impossible to achieve this goal withoutimmediate mitigation actions in all major emitting nations,according to 14 climate modeling exercises undertaken by10 independent research groups (Clarke and others 2009).(Mitigation refers to where action takes place rather than whofunds it.) Although developed countries have contributedmost of the atmospheric stock of GHGs and emit far moreper capita, developing countries account for about half thecurrent flow (see figure 1.1), and these emissions are growingrapidly. Even for less-ambitious stabilization targets,participation of middle-income countries is key to keepingFigure 1.1GHG emissions (including CO 2 ,CH 4 , N 2 O, PFCs, HFCs, SF 6 ), MtCO 2 e14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000GHG Emissions by Sector andcountry Group, 2005PowerIndustrial energyand emissionsTransportationSectorNon-Annex ILand-use changeand forestryAgriculture andwasteAnnex ISource: WRI CAIT (version 7.0).Note: Annex I countries are the industrialized countries assignedemissions limits under the Kyoto Protocol. GHG = greenhouse gas.Introduction | 3