The Challenge of Low-Carbon Development - World Bank Internet ...

Beyond Energy: Low-Carbon Pathsin Cities and ForestsThe futures of cities, urban transport, and growth are intertwined. Urban agglomerationshave the potential to provide a high-productivity, integrated labor market ifurban services, especially transportation, work efficiently. Once urban layouts havebeen established, they can persist for decades, even centuries, shaping circulationpatterns (Shalizi and Lecocq 2009). So avoiding lock-in is important for urban efficiency(and lower emissions) in those countries that are still urbanizing.Since the adoption of the SFDCC, the WBG has launchednew analytic and collaborative activities to promote efficientcities, including the Eco2 Initiative and ESMAP’s EnergyEfficient Cities Initiative.Urban TransitThis section examines bus rapid transit (BRT), for whichthere is a longer track record. Invented in the city of Curitiba,Brazil, in the 1960s, this is emerging as the single largestline of WBG action within urban transportation.BRT refers to a range of options (FTA 2003). At a minimum,it involves moving buses out of mixed traffic into buspriority lanes or into exclusive bus lanes as a way to appealto passengers who put a premium on time savings. Atthe high end, it includes bus rapid transit systems (BRTS).A low-budget version of a metro system, BRTS use articulatedbuses on dedicated roadways, allowing the systemto move more people more quickly than traditional buseson shared, clogged roadways. The capital costs (per kilometerof line) of a BRT can be a quarter to a third of thecost of building a comparable tramway and 5–10 percentof the cost of a metro system. (Nonetheless, metros may becost-effective in certain high-density locales, and the WorldBank continues to support them.)Transport, development, and climateIn the non-OECD countries, GHG emissions from transportnearly doubled from 1990 to 2006, and transport’sshare of emissions rose from 5.6 to 12.8 percent. 1 If thesecountries emulate developed countries, transport emissionswill continue to grow rapidly. At the global level, within thetransport sector, the land transport subsector accounted for85 percent of all energy consumed in 2009. To make a dentin CO 2reduction in the transport sector, the primary focuswill have to be on road transport, both within and betweencities.In already urbanized regions such as Latin America, publictransport typically accounts for at least half of public trips.There is an opportunity for developing countries to maintainthis high share for public transport if they can avoidthe death spiral found in developed countries. In that spiral,a burgeoning middle class abandons poor-quality publictransport for autos, imposing congestion and pollutioncosts on everyone. With ridership declining, public transitis forced to raise fares or further reduce quality, drivingaway more passengers, with a share declining to 10 or20 percent.Developing countries may be able to avoidthe spiral of declining public transportquality, rising fares, and declining marketshare that some developed countries haveexperienced.The consequences of this spiral are dire for developingcountry cities because of their lack of road capacity. Inmany developing countries, the circulation system in citiesaccounts for 10–20 percent of the urban area, in contrast to35–50 percent in developed countries. Squeezing more carsonto limited roadways generates congestion and heightenedCO 2emissions.48 | Climate Change and the World Bank Group