measurement <strong>of</strong> achieved economic returns is lacking, undercuttingthe Lending Pilot’s ambition to use program results toconvince other clients to invest in cleaner production.<strong>The</strong> Cleaner Production Lending Facilityfunded small loans with a median projectedrate <strong>of</strong> return <strong>of</strong> 36 percent, but most hadCO 2savings <strong>of</strong> just a few thousand tonsper year.An early lesson from the audits was the necessity <strong>of</strong> costsharing.Initially, clients were only required to cover 10 percent<strong>of</strong> the cost but committed to reimburse the grant ifaudit recommendations were implemented. This created anincentive not to disclose implementation plans and not toborrow from IFC. After full cost sharing was implemented,the three sponsored audits successfully identified costsavingmeasures with one- to four-year paybacks.<strong>The</strong> audit costs were small relative to the client’s projectedreturns. But the audit costs were relatively large compared toIFC’s potential returns from lending. Hence, IFC-fundedaudits are not likely to be sustainable for small-scale projectsin the absence <strong>of</strong> concessional funding, though theaudits themselves are potentially cost-effective.Transmission and DistributionElectricity T&D projects provide a potentially cheaper alternativeto construction <strong>of</strong> new generation in countrieswith high technical losses. <strong>The</strong>y also <strong>of</strong>fer major potentialfor reducing carbon emissions. Such projects can increasesupply security and reduce outages and can be important forimproving access. <strong>The</strong>y can reduce carbon emissions by—• Connecting renewable power to the grid• Reducing technical losses (dissipation <strong>of</strong> electricity aswaste heat)© Moodboard/Corbis.• Reducing the illegal or unpaid consumption known asnontechnical losses (emissions are reduced if consumers,confronted with a bill for electricity, reduce theirconsumption).Reducing lossesLosses vary widely across regions and countries because<strong>of</strong> utility performance. A survey <strong>of</strong> 12 African utilitiesfound total loss rates ranging from 6 to 35.3 percent(Pinto 2010). In these utilities, transmission losses rangedfrom 3 to 6.6 percent, distribution losses ranged from2.4 to 20.5 percent, and nontechnical losses ranged from3.6 to 17.5 percent.Technical losses in transmission anddistribution remain high in many regions.Technical losses can be reduced through direct investmentin hardware and network management and by increasingthe institutional capacity <strong>of</strong> utilities to plan, finance, andmaintain their networks. Opportunities for very large economicreturns from T&D projects exist largely becausemany power utilities have lacked the capacity, funds, andincentives to undertake optimal network management. Unlessperformance <strong>of</strong> utilities is improved, there is a risk thatT&D projects may not yield their expected economic andemission reduction benefits.Nontechnical losses are usually caused by a combination<strong>of</strong> faulty or inadequate metering, collusion between utilityemployees and power consumers, and theft. Nontechnicalloss reduction entails collecting money from customerswho were previously receiving power at no cost, provokingopposition from entrenched interest groups.Advanced metering infrastructure technology allowsmeters to be read remotely (using mobile phone networks),which reduces much <strong>of</strong> the scope for collusion and theft.Significant reductions in the price <strong>of</strong> advanced meteringinfrastructure components has made their widespreadadoption economically feasible (Antmann 2009). Preliminaryevidence from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, andHonduras demonstrates their effectiveness in reducingnontechnical losses.Advanced metering infrastructuretechnology has demonstrated effectivenessin reducing nontechnical losses.Nontechnical losses are <strong>of</strong>ten ascribed to poor people, buta significant portion <strong>of</strong> those losses comes from majorusers, and targeting these users is <strong>of</strong>ten key to reducinglosses. For example, a loss-reduction effort in North Delhisuccessfully reduced total losses from 53 percent in 2002 to40 | Climate Change and the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> Group
18.5 percent in 2008. This was done primarily by usingadvanced metering infrastructure for the 30,000 majorconsumers, who collectively represent 3 percent <strong>of</strong> the customersbut 60 percent <strong>of</strong> the power sales (Antmann 2009).WBG portfolio, 2003–08<strong>The</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> has a long history <strong>of</strong> investment in T&D projects.Over 2003–08, the WBG committed $3.45 billion to44 T&D projects that are expected to lead to significant carbonreduction benefits or technical loss reductions, thoughemission reduction was not an explicit goal for many <strong>of</strong>them. (Table C.2 summarizes impacts and appendix Dpresents lessons from completed projects).<strong>The</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s portfolio demonstrates recognition <strong>of</strong> the importance<strong>of</strong> improving the financial state <strong>of</strong> utilities in orderto improve long-term impacts. Among the low-carbonT&D projects, 60 percent addressed nontechnical losses,and 82 percent <strong>of</strong> projects that specifically aimed at lossreduction included nontechnical loss-reduction measures.Projects have been aimed at the regions with the highestpower losses (particularly Europe and Central Asia andSouth Asia).Projected economic gains from these projects are <strong>of</strong>tenlarge. Many projects calculate high ERRs on a large investmentbase (<strong>of</strong>ten 20–60 percent; see tables C.1 and C2).Projected benefits are even higher if the project is expectedto boost access or reduce outages. One project in theDominican Republic projects a net present value <strong>of</strong> $428million on a $122 million investment.<strong>The</strong> projected economic gains from theseprojects are <strong>of</strong>ten very large, but thedisparate methodologies used make itdifficult to validate or compare projections.Unfortunately, it is difficult to validate or compare theseex ante projections, because <strong>Bank</strong> projects do not use acommon methodology when valuing loss reduction, outagereduction, or other benefits. It is not always apparentwhether loss reduction forecasts come from formal engineeringstudies or are rough estimates. Many projectionsare contingent on assumptions that loss reductions willbe sustained across many years after project completion,presuming successfully institutionalized change in maintenanceand operations.Efficient Light BulbsElectric lighting represents 19 percent <strong>of</strong> global electricityconsumption (IEA 2006). In many developing countries,lighting is the largest use <strong>of</strong> power in the residential sector,particularly in the poorest countries, where householdshave few electrical appliances. For example, in Ethiopia,lighting constitutes 74 percent <strong>of</strong> power consumption fora typical household that has electricity access (Maurer andNonay 2009). Because lighting demand is concentrated inthe early evening hours, utilities must build additional generationcapacity that is only used during this period.Switching from standard incandescent lamps to CFLs reducesenergy consumption (saving fuel costs) and capacitycosts while mitigating CO 2emissions. CFLs draw only20–30 percent as much power as equally bright incandescentlights and last much longer. Households benefit fromlower energy consumption, and CFL adoption can pay foritself in 2–14 months. Utilities benefit from lower powersales (when generation cost exceeds supply cost) and fromreduced capacity costs.Replacement <strong>of</strong> all <strong>of</strong> Sub-Saharan Africa’sincandescent lights would effectivelyboost power availability by 23 percent,at a fraction <strong>of</strong> the cost <strong>of</strong> peaking dieselgenerators.A recent ESMAP review (ESMAP 2009) finds that a “representative”CFL program, under optimistic assumptions,would have a benefit-cost ratio <strong>of</strong> nearly 28:1, based on energyand capacity savings, or nearly 30:1 if CO 2abatementwere valued at $10/ton. A <strong>Bank</strong> study for Sub-SaharanAfrica (de Gouvello, Dayo, and Thioye 2008) estimated thatregionwide replacement <strong>of</strong> all 476 million inefficient lights(60 percent <strong>of</strong> these are in South Africa) with CFLs wouldreduce peak power demand by 15,200 MW, representingabout 23 percent <strong>of</strong> installed capacity for the region.Recent estimates <strong>of</strong> CFL bulk purchase projects (ESMAP2009) suggest that one-shot replacement can be achievedat roughly $2 per bulb. Although full phase-out for Africacould cost $950 million, significant gains could be achievedwith a much smaller investment targeting residential usersor countries with high emission factors, expensive power,or supply shortages.Barriers and interventionsDespite the large benefits, private households have beenslow to adopt CFL technology. Where electricity prices areartificially low due to subsidies, consumers have low incentiveto adopt. Other adoption barriers include the higherupfront price <strong>of</strong> CFL bulbs, distaste for the color or quality<strong>of</strong> the illumination, skepticism about the bulbs’ lifespan,and poor consumer knowledge.Although the potential benefits are large,households have been slow to adopt CFLtechnology.Energy Efficiency | 41
- Page 1 and 2:
Phase II: The Challenge of Low-Carb
- Page 3 and 4:
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE WORLD BANK G
- Page 5 and 6:
Table of ContentsAbbreviations . .
- Page 7 and 8:
Figures1.1 GHG Emissions by Sector
- Page 9 and 10:
AcknowledgmentsThe report was prepa
- Page 11 and 12:
Executive SummaryUnabated, climate
- Page 13 and 14:
esettlement plans has been ineffect
- Page 15 and 16:
of some technologies, such as landf
- Page 17 and 18:
Scale up high-impact investmentsEne
- Page 19 and 20:
should have been strengthened in th
- Page 21 and 22:
Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
- Page 23 and 24:
Major monitorable IEGrecommendation
- Page 25 and 26: Chairman’s Summary: Committee onD
- Page 27 and 28: most places. Before we get there, w
- Page 29 and 30: non-Annex I countries. The World Ba
- Page 31 and 32: attention. In a couple of decades,
- Page 33 and 34: GlossaryAdditionalityBankabilityBas
- Page 35 and 36: Joint ImplementationA mechanism und
- Page 37 and 38: Chapter 1evALuAtiOn HiGHLiGHts• T
- Page 39 and 40: of interventions, from technical as
- Page 41 and 42: would allow industrialized countrie
- Page 43 and 44: growth, poverty reduction (includin
- Page 45 and 46: Table 1.1 Map of the EvaluationSect
- Page 47 and 48: Chapter 2eValuaTION HIGHlIGHTS• W
- Page 49 and 50: Table 2.2Evaluated World Bank Renew
- Page 51 and 52: Figure 2.2Breakdown of 2003-08 Low-
- Page 53 and 54: Table 2.4 Commitments to Grid-Conne
- Page 55 and 56: Box 2.1The Economics of Grid-Connec
- Page 57 and 58: on average (Iyadomi 2010). (Reducti
- Page 59 and 60: and industrial policy. An increasin
- Page 61 and 62: Table 2.6Hydropower Investments by
- Page 63 and 64: costs for remaining unelectrified a
- Page 65 and 66: World Bank experienceTwo factors ac
- Page 67: Box 2.5On-Grid and Off-Grid Renewab
- Page 70 and 71: Energy EfficiencyThe first phase in
- Page 72 and 73: Box 3.1ESCOs and Energy Performance
- Page 74 and 75: have had limited causal impact on t
- Page 78 and 79: Since the early 1990s, public entit
- Page 80 and 81: part with a $198 million IDA credit
- Page 83 and 84: Chapter 4eVAluATioN HigHligHTS• B
- Page 85 and 86: The WBG urban transport portfolio (
- Page 87 and 88: y conventional transport systems, i
- Page 89 and 90: include the forest carbon projects
- Page 91 and 92: for Costa Rica for the period 2000-
- Page 93 and 94: After 20 years of effort, systemati
- Page 95 and 96: orrowers have demonstrated the abil
- Page 97 and 98: Chapter 5EVALuATioN HigHLigHTS• O
- Page 99 and 100: Consequently, the efficiency with w
- Page 101 and 102: technologies could accelerate diffu
- Page 103 and 104: A second issue, inherent to any adv
- Page 105 and 106: goal of promoting wind turbine impr
- Page 107 and 108: ConclusionsThe WBG’s efforts to p
- Page 109 and 110: Table 5.1Carbon Funds at the World
- Page 111 and 112: demonstration initiative. The Commu
- Page 113 and 114: Impacts on technology transferThe 2
- Page 115 and 116: Chapter 6Photo by Martin Wright/Ash
- Page 117 and 118: Figure 6.1800Economic and Carbon Re
- Page 119 and 120: Specifically, the WBG could:• Pla
- Page 121 and 122: Table 6.1Summary of Sectoral Findin
- Page 123 and 124: Table 6.1Sector Intervention Direct
- Page 125 and 126: Appendix ARenewable Energy Tables a
- Page 127 and 128:
Table A.4Grid-Based Biomass/Biogass
- Page 129 and 130:
Table A.5 (continued)Negative examp
- Page 131 and 132:
Figure A.4A. Hydro/biomass capacity
- Page 133 and 134:
Appendix bWorld Bank Experience wit
- Page 135 and 136:
Table C.2Completed Low-Carbon Energ
- Page 137 and 138:
TAble C.4Reviewed energy efficiency
- Page 139 and 140:
the new capacity. Transmission syst
- Page 141 and 142:
Table E.2Climate obligationsCoal Pl
- Page 143 and 144:
Table F.2GHG objectiveModeNumber of
- Page 145 and 146:
IEG eliminated a few cases of doubl
- Page 147 and 148:
Table H.1Project andlocationBioener
- Page 149 and 150:
Appendix ICarbon and Economic Retur
- Page 151 and 152:
Appendix JRecent WBG Developments i
- Page 153 and 154:
y providing value to standing fores
- Page 155 and 156:
never had an explicit corporate str
- Page 157 and 158:
overnight. The Bank can provide ass
- Page 159 and 160:
Chapter 51. From the chief economis
- Page 161 and 162:
Hartshorn, G., P. Ferraro, and B. S
- Page 163 and 164:
______. 2007. World Development Ind
- Page 165 and 166:
IEG PublicationsAnalyzing the Effec