The Challenge of Low-Carbon Development - World Bank Internet ...

y conventional transport systems, in particular a number of small bus owners competing with each other forpassengers. Hence, the first phase did not displace many bus owners. The subsequent phases (with an additional14 corridors), however, were designed to increase the share of BRT in total public transit to 70 percent and coulddrastically reduce the role of the remaining small bus owners.The solution to this has been to form cooperatives or holding companies that would employ many of thebus owners/drivers (the balance being placed in alternate jobs through financial transfers). The difficulties inimplementing this solution are ongoing but declining.A related problem has been the difficulty in enforcing the phase-out of old buses. This phase-out affects theexpected reduction in externalities determined at appraisal—particularly GHG reductions. Despite a monitoredscrapping program in which the low-quality minibuses were exchanged for higher-quality articulated buses atthe prescribed exchange rate and their destruction supervised, the total number of minibuses in the city did notdecline as expected. The inability to enforce regulations, such as licenses and routes for minibuses, resulted in newentrants and the use of secondhand mini-buses. It also generated congestion in other parts of the city. The hopedforreduction in CO 2emissions from scrapping buses will be frustrated if other old buses are pressed into serviceand increase their annual mileage.Maintaining and increasing ridership is also a challenge. Gilbert (2008) points to contractual arrangements thatnecessitate raising fares when ridership projections are lower than anticipated. That creates a spiral of decreasingridership caused by higher prices and leading to new rounds of price increases and the inability to ensure safetyon the new lines, which also contributes to ridership loss. In addition, the cost differential between extending theBRTS and extending the metro is declining as the system expands into more difficult terrain. As a result of all ofthis, the middle class (whose rate of BRT usage is highest relative to the lower income and higher income groups)has started voicing support for new metro lines at the expense of the BRT network.The Bogota experience has piqued global interest in BRTSs. The Bank and other donors have facilitated visits byofficials from other countries to see the experiment in Bogota. In fact, many other countries are learning fromthis experience and are now designing or implementing their own systems. However, the program is not yet fullyimplemented, and it is too early to judge whether it will realize the full benefits anticipated from expansion to amultiline, citywide, integrated system.Sources: Wright 2004, Gilbert 2008, TransMilenio PDD 2004.However, even as the old buses are scrapped and their driversassimilated into the system, it has been difficult to excludenew entrants who import additional second-handbuses. Although the system was initially successful in attractingriders, there are signs of an incipient rising fare/declining ridership cycle; concerns about passenger safetyare also eroding ridership, and public sentiment is shiftingtoward new metro lines (Gilbert 2008). Overall, however,the system is viewed as having demonstrated BRTS feasibility,and the Bank has actively facilitated visits to the projectby potential foreign emulators. Current projects seek to addeight more BRT lines to the Bogota system and replicate itin five other cities.The most developed systems were initiallysuccessful, but the future is uncertain.In Mexico City, the BRTS was largely financed domestically,but the World Bank had two catalytic interventions.First, a $6 million GEF-funded Bank project supportedinstitutional development for implementing the system.Second, a World Bank–financed carbon project arrangedfor $2.4 million in carbon credit purchase. This is a smallportion of the total $49.4 million project cost, but the proponentsclaim that the association with carbon has helpedpopularize the project. In addition, the project was responsiblefor developing the second CDM-approved methodologyfor assessing GHG reductions in public transport,opening the way for CDM finance of BRTS elsewhere.ImpactsDedicated bus lanes (precursors to BRTS) have been shownto increase travel speeds for bus passengers by 20–60 percent,based on completion reports (for example, from21.4 to 30 kilometers per hour in the Liaoning project inChina, 15.6 to 25 kilometers per hour in the Shijiazhuangproject in China, and 15 to 22 kilometers per hour in theDhaka project in Bangladesh). The Dhaka urban transportair-quality project also showed a dramatic drop in localair pollutants (31 percent decrease in PM 10, 59 percent inhydrocarbons, 28 percent in carbon monoxide) after threewheelers with highly polluting two-stroke engines wereremoved, generating $25 million per annum in health benefitsfor the city.Beyond Energy: Low-Carbon Paths in Cities and Forests | 51