Economic Impacts of Parks, Rivers, Trails and Greenways

not widely understood.Type I sales multiplier = (direct sales + indirect sales) / direct salesType II sales multiplier = (direct sales + indirect sales + induced sales) / direct salesFigure 4. Sales MultipliersMultipliers are derived from rather complex economic models. To estimate what the totaleffects (direct, indirect, and induced) will be, you multiply the direct effect (first roundpurchases) by the multiplier to obtain the total effects. Thus, by using multipliers you canshow the total amount of economic activity in your community per dollar of direct effect ofpark visitor spending. For a park or trail project, an economist could use an employmentmultiplier to estimate how many jobs would result from a specific level of park-relatedexpenditures. An economist could also use an income multiplier to predict the additionalincome which would result from an increase in park-related expenditures.Relatively large multipliers mean that new or expanded recreation facilities within theseregions would bring new dollars into the area, which, through multiplier effects, wouldstimulate considerable economic activity. Multipliers vary by county, in part, because thestructures of the local economies are different. Generally, as local economies diversify andbecome more self-sufficient, visitor spending will have an even larger effect on the localeconomy. Aggregate Type II multipliers typically range from 1.3 for rural areas to 1.6 forlarger metropolitan areas. Multipliers for statewide regions generally range from 1.5 to1.8, and tourism sales multipliers for a national model may be around 2.5 (Stynes, 2004).An employment multiplier for a park of, say, 1.52 means that there will be 1.52 jobs createdin the local economy for every one job resulting from the direct impacts of recreationspending at that park. Therefore, if 10 new jobs resulted from the direct impacts ofrecreational spending, 15 total new jobs would eventually be created. Ten of these 15 wouldbe the result of the direct impacts, and five additional jobs from the indirect and inducedimpacts. Remember the direct impact on employment results from the jobs provided by therecreation-related businesses themselves. The indirect impact on employment results if therecreation business buys production materials and services locally from other businesses,thereby increasing the number of jobs in those businesses.Once again, multipliers are derived from rather complex economic models. However, inmany cities, counties, and states, multipliers have already been calculated and may beappropriate for your project. Multipliers may be a convenient way to estimate secondaryimpacts in a region from direct spending, but they can be applied incorrectly. For example,using published multipliers of those from another study may give the mistaken impressionthat a single recreation multiplier can be used for any area or application. Caution should beexercised when using or interpreting multipliers. Make certain you know what themultipliers are describing. To use multipliers correctly, it is best to work with an economistor someone familiar with their use.86