Economic-Review-of-Agriculture_2015-6

2.0 WORLD COMMODITY SITUATION
2.1 Cereals
According to FAO, world cereal production in 2014 was 2,523 million tons, 4.8 million tones lower than what was
recorded in 2013. Wheat production achieved a new record, at 718.5 million tons, and coarse grains recorded a slight
decline to 1,308 million tons. Unfavorable weather conditions lowered prospects for rice production, which recorded
at 496.4 million tons, a decline of 0.4 percent compared to 2013 production.
Word cereal utilization in 2014 was recorded at 2,461.3 million tones. This was a growth of 2.2 percent (53.5 million
tons) compared to 2013. Based on the latest forecasts for production and utilization, world cereal stocks at the close
of the year increased to 627.5 million tons, up from 579.5 recorded at the close of 2013. Maize accounted for the
biggest increase, followed by wheat, while rice stocks declined. The overall positive result in the cereal stocks-to-use
ratio increased to 25.2 percent in 2014 from 23.5 percent in 2013, which was the highest since 2001.
Abundant supplies recorded in 2014 resulted in sharp decline in international prices of all cereals, with the exception
of rice. However, the lower prices did not stimulate trade, as the major cereal importing countries held large supplies,
resulting in depressed import demand. As a result, total cereal trade contracted by 5.0 percent to 337 million tons in
2014.
Table 2.1: World Cereals Situation (million tons)
Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15*
Wheat 682.0 655.3 699.4 660.6 717.1 718.5
Coarse grains 1,123.0 1135 1165.9 1153.9 1 310.7 1308
Rice 455.0 468.5 480.2 490.9 498.4 496.4
Total Production 2,260.0 2258.8 2345.5 2305.4 2 526.1 2522.9
Wheat 659.0 663.0 697.6 687.3 689.1 700.8
Coarse grains 1,113.0 1 155.8 1 161.5 1 165.2 1 236.5 1260.2
Rice 449.0 460.1 468.5 477.9 492.1 500.3
Total Consumption 2,221.0 2278.8 2327.6 2330.4 2417.8 2461.3
Wheat 202.0 192.7 189.2 158.2 176.5 192.4
Coarse grains 225.0 169.5 174.0 171 221.8 257.4
Rice 130.0 143.7 159.3 175.7 181.3 177.7
Total End Year Stocks 557.0 505.9 522.5 504.9 579.5 627.5
Source: FAO, GIEWS, * Projections as at November, 2014
2.2 Wheat
World production reached 718.5 tons in 2014, a marginal increase from the 2013 recorded output. Large production
gains from the Russian Federation, as well as China and India, compensated for lower supplies from Australia, Canada
and the United States.
World wheat trade in 2014 contracted to 150 million tons, 7.3 million tons (4.6 percent) below the recorded level of
2013. The reduction was attributed to lower import demand in Asia and Africa, more than offsetting a rise recorded
in Europe. Total wheat utilization in 2014 was at 701 million tons, 1.7 percent higher than in 2013.
World wheat inventories reached 192.4 million tons by the end of 2014; this was the highest level since 2003. The
world wheat stock-to-use ratio increased from 25.2 percent in 2013 to 26.9 percent in 2014. International wheat
prices came under strong downward pressure, falling to its lowest levels in four years.
Economic Review of Agriculture [ERA] 2015 4