Economic-Review-of-Agriculture_2015-6

Table 2.2: International Prices for Wheat in US$/ton
Variety 2010/011 2011/012 2012/013 2013/014 2014/015
Us No. 2 Hard red winter 316 300 348 318 303
Us soft red 289 256 310 265 245
Argentina Trigo pan 311 264 336 335 304
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA
2.3 Coarse Grains
World coarse grains production reached 1,308 million tons in 2014 a slight decline from 2013 records. Maize
output reached 1,018 million tons, 0.7 percent above the recorded output in 2013. The expansion in world maize
production was mainly in China and the United States, as well as significantly higher outputs for the EU and the
Russian Federation. World barley production was recorded at 140.2 million tons, 4 percent below 2013 level. The
global sorghum production stood at 60.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from 2013.
World trade in coarse grains in 2014 declined to 147 million tons, down by 6.9 percent from the 2013 levels. Maize
was responsible for the bulk of this decline, with total maize imports contracting by 4.5 percent to 114 million tons.
World trade in barley slightly declining to 21 million tons, while global imports for sorghum declined to 7.5 million
tons, down by 600 tons from the previous season’s level. The global utilization of coarse grains in 2014 increased by
1.9 percent to 1,260 million tons. This was as a result of a slower rise in feed intake in the United States.
Based on global production and utilization, world stocks of coarse grains in 2014 increased to 257.4 million tons, 16
percent above their opening levels and the highest level since 1986. Good crop production and rising inventories
continued to put downward pressure on international prices with maize prices in September falling as much as 25
percent below their corresponding level in 2013.
Table 2.3: International Prices for Coarse Grains (US$/ton)
Variety 2010/011 2011/012 2012/013 2013/014 2014/015
US Yellow Maize 185 281 311 217 193
Argentina Maize 196 269 278 219 200
US Sorghum 184 264 281 218 208
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA
2.4 Rice
After two seasons of below trend growth, global rice production fell marginally in 2014. However, global rice stocks
were sufficient to cover more than a third of the 2015/16 projected world consumption. The decline in rice production
was as a result of erratic weather conditions across all rice producing regions. A decline of 0.4 percent, to 496.4
million tons of milled rice equivalent was recorded in 2014. There were major output shortfalls, in absolute terms,
recorded in India, Indonesia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Taking advantage of the lower international prices and in anticipation of possible production setbacks, many countries
imported rice from world markets in 2014. This strong import demand, combined with large supplies in major
exporting countries, sustained a 7 percent increase in the volume of rice transactions in 2014 to record 39.7 million
tons. World rice trade is expected to grow further in 2015, to about 40 million tons.
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Economic Review of Agriculture [ERA] 2015