Economic-Review-of-Agriculture_2015-6

2.7 Coffee
Global coffee production in 2013/014 was estimated at 8.52 million tons compared to 8.80 million tons recorded
in 2012/013. This represented a 3.2 percent reduction which was as a result of outbreak of coffee leaf rust disease
in some major coffee growing countries in Central America. Prospects for 2014/015 are not so good as a result of
drought in Brazil and lower output in Indonesia.
Production in Africa fell slightly to 0.962 million tons, or 11.3 percent of the world total production. Ethiopia recorded
the largest production in the region, at 0.39 million tons, followed by Uganda at 0.222 million tons and Côte d’Ivoire
0.114 million tons. Kenya production was relatively unchanged at 0.051 million tons.
Total demand in calendar year 2013 was estimated at 8.766 million tons, and a growth of 2.1percent per annum was
recorded over the preceding four years. This growth was mostly driven by increased demand in exporting countries
and new consuming countries, which have registered an average annual growth rate of 3.1percent and 2.7percent
respectively since 2010.
After declining almost continuously in 2011/12 and 2012/13, coffee prices recovered strongly in 2013/14. Early in
the year, Brazil suffered one of its worst droughts on record, leading the International Coffee Organization (ICO)
composite price to soar from under US$ 2/kg in mid-November 2013 to a high of US$ 3.6 in April 2014. The ICO
composite price for the year 2013/14 averaged US$ 2.82/kg.
Coffee stocks and inventories were mostly higher in 2013/14 compared to previous seasons. Stocks in coffee producing
countries increased from 1.281 to 1.36 million tons at the end of the crop year, due to good stocks held by Brazil and
Vietnam. Importing countries also replenished their coffee inventories, up to 1.398 million tons by September 2014,
from 1.26 million tons in September 2013.
Table 2.7: Coffee Production by Exporting Countries
Production 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14*
Total Production by exporting
7.4 8.03 7.93 8.06 8.80 8.52
countries (Million tons)
Production in Kenya(Million tons) 0.0378 0.03846 0.04542 0.0525 0.05178 0.051
Average composite prices (Kshs./ton) 201,265.8 256,197.6 366,078.6 272,031.6 250,947.4 279,468
Source: International Coffee Organization * Projections
2.8 World Fertilizer Situation
Figure 2.1:Trend of some World Fertilizer Prices
Source: International Fertilizer Association
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Economic Review of Agriculture [ERA] 2015