Global Burden of Armed Violence - The Geneva Declaration on ...

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GLOBAL BURDEN <strong>of</strong> ARMED VIOLENCE 2 a comprehensive picture <strong>of</strong> the worldwide scope, scale, and effects <strong>of</strong> armed violence. It contributes to the generation <strong>of</strong> a broader evidence base on the links between armed violence and development and is part <strong>of</strong> the process <strong>of</strong> implementing the <strong>Geneva</strong> <strong>Declaration</strong> on <strong>Armed</strong> <strong>Violence</strong> and Development. Dimensions <strong>of</strong> armed violence For the purposes <strong>of</strong> this report, armed violence is the intentional use <strong>of</strong> illegitimate force (actual or threatened) with arms or explosives, against a person, group, community, or state, that under- mines people-centred security and/or sustainable development. This definition covers many acts, ranging from the large-scale violence associated with conflict and war to inter-communal and collective violence, organized criminal and economically motivated violence, political violence by different actors or groups competing for power, and inter-personal and gender-based violence. 3 This report provides cross-regional and international comparisons <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> the most dramatic consequences <strong>of</strong> armed violence: direct conflict deaths, indirect conflict deaths, post-conflict mortality, and non-conflict deaths such as homicide, disappearances, kidnappings, and aid worker killings. <strong>The</strong>se forms <strong>of</strong> armed violence are usually the best documented, and as leading indicators can provide a good basis for understanding the scope and distribution <strong>of</strong> armed violence around the world and for exploring other, less prominent dimensions <strong>of</strong> armed violence. <strong>The</strong> report also explores in a separate chapter the less-visible forms <strong>of</strong> violence against women, and where possible considers the gendered dimension <strong>of</strong> the most prominent forms <strong>of</strong> armed violence. While the overwhelming majority <strong>of</strong> victims (and perpetrators) <strong>of</strong> armed violence are men, there are gender-specific forms <strong>of</strong> violence that warrant greater analysis and that are poorly documented. Key findings <strong>of</strong> the report are that: more than 740,000 people have died directly or indirectly from armed violence—both conflict and criminal violence—every year in recent years. more than 540,000 <strong>of</strong> these deaths are violent, with the vast majority occurring in non-conflict settings. at least 200,000 people—and perhaps many thousands more—have died each year in conflict zones from non-violent causes (such as malnutrition, dysentery, or other easily pre- ventable diseases) that resulted from the effects <strong>of</strong> war on populations. between 2004 and 2007, at least 208,300 violent deaths were recorded in armed conflicts—an average <strong>of</strong> 52,000 people killed per year. This is a conservative estimate including only recorded deaths: the real total may be much higher. the annual economic cost <strong>of</strong> armed violence in non-conflict settings, in terms <strong>of</strong> lost produc- tivity due to violent deaths, is USD 95 billion and could reach as high as USD 163 billion— 0.14 per cent <strong>of</strong> the annual global GDP. <strong>The</strong>se figures, which are explained in detail in different chapters in this report, underscore that violent deaths in non-conflict settings and indirect deaths in armed conflicts comprise a much larger proportion <strong>of</strong> the global burden <strong>of</strong> armed violence than the number <strong>of</strong> people dying violently in contemporary wars.
Figure 1 captures graphically the distribution <strong>of</strong> the different categories <strong>of</strong> deaths within the global burden <strong>of</strong> armed violence. <strong>The</strong> small green circles illustrate the direct burden <strong>of</strong> violent death in conflict, including both civilians and combatants. It represents roughly seven per cent <strong>of</strong> the total global burden. <strong>The</strong> larger blue circle represents the indirect deaths from violent conflict—some 27 per cent <strong>of</strong> the total. And violent deaths in non-conflict settings—490,000 per year—represent two-thirds (66 per cent) <strong>of</strong> the total. 4 Beyond this lie the untold number <strong>of</strong> phys- ically injured or psychologically harmed people who also bear part <strong>of</strong> the global burden <strong>of</strong> armed violence. Traditionally, these various manifestations <strong>of</strong> armed violence have been treated separately, as if their underlying causes and dynamics were fundamen- tally different. Yet the changing nature <strong>of</strong> armed violence—including the rise <strong>of</strong> economically motivated wars, the blurring <strong>of</strong> the line between political and non-political violence, the growth <strong>of</strong> trans-national criminal gangs, the expansion <strong>of</strong> non-state armed groups, and persistently high levels <strong>of</strong> insecurity in most post-conflict situations— makes drawing clear distinctions between different forms <strong>of</strong> armed violence practically and analyti- cally impossible. Continuing to treat these different forms <strong>of</strong> armed violence separately also impedes the development <strong>of</strong> coherent and comprehensive violence prevention and reduction policies at the international and local level. Since one goal <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Burden</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Armed</strong> <strong>Violence</strong> report is to promote a better understanding <strong>of</strong> the negative impact <strong>of</strong> armed violence on human, social, and economic development, it is critical to adopt the broader lens <strong>of</strong> armed violence rather than focusing on only one <strong>of</strong> its many manifestations. Figure 1 Categories <strong>of</strong> deaths INDIRECT CONFLICT DEATHS Battle-related deaths Civilian deaths in armed conflict <strong>The</strong> report also presents the geographic distribution and concentration <strong>of</strong> different forms <strong>of</strong> armed violence. Conflict-related deaths, which appear to have increased since 2005, are highly concentrated: three-quarters <strong>of</strong> all reported direct conflict deaths took place in just ten countries. Ending the armed conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka in 2007 would have reduced the total number <strong>of</strong> direct conflict deaths by more than two-thirds. And within countries, armed violence is usually concentrated in certain municipalities or regions, while other areas may be relatively untouched. DIRECT CONFLICT DEATHS Most international attention focuses on the numbers <strong>of</strong> recorded violent deaths in conflicts. While such data potentially helps decision-makers and analysts assess the intensity <strong>of</strong> a war and its evolution over time, these relatively low figures (in the tens <strong>of</strong> thousands) obscure the larger burden <strong>of</strong> mortality arising from indirect deaths in NON-CONFLICT DEATHS 3 E X ECU T I V E SUMM A RY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Page 5 and 6: Foreword Armed vio
Page 7 and 8: Contents Executive Summary ........
Page 9 and 10: About the Geneva <
Page 11 and 12: of direct conflict
Page 13: Executive Summary Armed</st
Page 17 and 18: This report also finds that the aft
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Page 21 and 22: Chapter One Direct Conflict Death <
Page 23 and 24: approaches that featured cross-nati
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Page 27 and 28: niques and inclusion requirements (
Page 29 and 30: Figure 1.2 Estimates of</st
Page 31 and 32: North Africa Sudan 7,284 1,098 2,60
Page 33 and 34: Map 1.1 The GBAV c
Page 35 and 36: �� Increasing di
Page 37 and 38: Table 1.4 Estimated direct conflict
Page 39 and 40: Table 1.7 Direct conflict death rat
Page 41 and 42: accounts overwhelmingly for the glo
Page 43 and 44: Chapter Two The Ma
Page 45 and 46: Sexual violence in armed conflict a
Page 47 and 48: continued for six months due to the
Page 49 and 50: Table 2.1 Comparison of</st
Page 51 and 52: of sexual violence
Page 53 and 54: can be explained by the relatively
Page 55 and 56: Box 2.3 A very dark number: direct
Page 57 and 58: Photo Victims of v
Page 59 and 60: Table 2.5 Violent death estimates f
Page 61 and 62: Chapter Three Armed</strong
Page 63 and 64: ized by a clear victory of<
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On the basis of Ch
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illegal war economies, including th
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standards issued by UNHCR emphasize
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Table 3.4 Risk factors for youth vi
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Map 3.2 The youth
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Given the potential importance <str
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interventions based on identified n
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Chapter Four Lethal Encounters: Non
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violence in Mexico in 2007-08 (BBC,
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comparisons between regions <strong
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tively. The Caribb
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the homicide count is derived. None
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Table 4.1 National-level homicide t
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sistent increases during the time p
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Box 4.3 Sex, age, and armed violenc
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The police are sat
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American countries have similar tre
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evidence on the patterns and distri
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Chapter Five What’s in a Number?
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observe that war has negative effec
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Box 5.1 Accounting for the costs <s
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of conflict and co
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Table 5.2 The soci
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In Uganda, a protracted armed confl
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�� Lost product
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Figure 5.3 Potential gains in life
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playing a role in promoting an end
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16 Specifically, the health and yea
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Chapter Six Armed
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(Myrttinen, 2003, p. 38). T
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NATO Forces and The</strong
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go missing, or are killed. In such
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disaggregated data is still not ava
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Acts of sexual vio
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Dowry-related violence A dowry is t
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sex ratios reported at birth is pre
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Chapter Seven Other Forms o
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will likely emerge. Armed</
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Gangs in Central America Central Am
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��
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The absence <stron
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Table 7.1 Recorded cases of
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Figure 7.2 Kidnap for ransom cases
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armed violence, since, beyond the d
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Bibliography Executive Summary CNP
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Burr, M. 1993. A Working Document:
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Thieren, Michael. 2005. ‘Health I
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——. 2008. Small Arms Survey 200
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Nations-Survey-on-Crime-Trends-and-
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ground Paper. Geneva</stron
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--. 2003. ‘Masculinities and Masc
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ights-and-wrongs-of</strong
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Boxes List of Illu
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Map 4.1 Homicide rates per 100,000
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Figure 2.1 Typology of</str
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