Global Burden of Armed Violence - The Geneva Declaration on ...

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72 rates between 5 and 10, while Oceania, the Near GLOBAL BURDEN <strong>of</strong> ARMED VIOLENCE and Middle East/South-west Asia, South Asia, and South-east Europe show homicide rates in the range 3–5 per 100,000 population. Figure 4.1 provides in graphic form details <strong>of</strong> the regional and subregional distribution <strong>of</strong> homicide rates. In Africa, high homicide rates may be associated with a series <strong>of</strong> social and economic indicators also linked to crime. <strong>The</strong>se include, for example, a low overall Human Development Index (HDI), 7 low economic performance, 8 high levels <strong>of</strong> income inequality, 9 a youthful population, 10 rapid rates <strong>of</strong> urbanization, poorly resourced criminal justice systems, and a proliferation <strong>of</strong> firearms, related in part to the recurrence <strong>of</strong> conflict in all regions <strong>of</strong> the continent (UNODC, 2005, p. ix). Systematic analysis <strong>of</strong> the nature <strong>of</strong> these linkages, however, remains to be done (see Box 4.1). Box 4.1 Homicide and human development Analysis <strong>of</strong> homicide rates by level <strong>of</strong> human development reveals the concentration <strong>of</strong> violent deaths in countries marked by a lack <strong>of</strong> resources and poverty. Figure 4.2 shows the population-averaged homicide rate for 176 countries, grouped by low, medium, and high levels <strong>of</strong> human development as assigned by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) HDI. <strong>The</strong> HDI combines measures <strong>of</strong> life expectancy, literacy, education, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as means <strong>of</strong> measuring and comparing levels <strong>of</strong> human development. <strong>The</strong> homicide rate in countries with low levels <strong>of</strong> human development is more than three times higher than the average rate in countries with high or medium levels <strong>of</strong> human development. This should come as no surprise: crime rarely occurs in isolation and is one <strong>of</strong> a range <strong>of</strong> co-factors associated with underdevelopment. High levels <strong>of</strong> income inequality, rapid urbanization, a high share <strong>of</strong> unemployed youth in the population, poorly resourced criminal justice systems, and the proliferation <strong>of</strong> firearms are all associated with both crime and low levels <strong>of</strong> development. However, while Figure 4.2 suggests broad links between development and homicide levels, a strong correlation does not exist between the two at the level <strong>of</strong> individual countries. 11 Rather, the HDI captures development indicators that are both affected by and partly symptomatic <strong>of</strong> the level <strong>of</strong> violence in a given society. In Africa, some conflict-related deaths may appear in homicide statistics, but overall the number <strong>of</strong> direct conflict-related deaths in Africa (approximately 17,700 conflict deaths were recorded via incident reporting in 2004 12 ) pales compared to an estimated 180,000 non-conflict violent deaths in 2004. <strong>The</strong>re is nevertheless a link between conflict and non-conflict violence. <strong>Armed</strong> conflict has the potential to influence violent crime both during and after the end <strong>of</strong> hostilities (ARMED VIOLENCE AFTER WAR). Contemporary conflicts <strong>of</strong>ten also overlap with organized criminal activity and other forms <strong>of</strong> looting and predation. <strong>The</strong> psychological impact <strong>of</strong> war, destruction <strong>of</strong> social fabric, loss <strong>of</strong> livelihoods, social displacement, and increased availability <strong>of</strong> weapons may also all contribute to high post-conflict levels <strong>of</strong> crime and insecurity that are reflected in homicide levels (UNODC, 2005, p. x). <strong>The</strong> Americas, with the exception <strong>of</strong> North America, show the second-highest regional homicide levels. Central and South American rates are higher than the global average, representing the second- and third-highest subregional rates globally: 29.3 and 25.9 homicides per 100,000 population, respec- Figure 4.2 Homicide and HDI: homicide rate per 100,000 population, 2004* 22 countries, low HDI 69 countries, high HDI 85 countries, medium HDI 0 5 10 15 20 25 * <strong>The</strong> classification <strong>of</strong> high, medium, and low human development is used in the UNDP Human Development Report to describe countries that have a HDI value <strong>of</strong> 0.800 or above (high), 0.500–0.799 (medium), or less than 0.500 (low). See UNDP (2008, , p. 222). Source: UNODC estimates
tively. <strong>The</strong> Caribbean rate <strong>of</strong> 18.1 is more than twice as high as the global average (7.6 per 100,000 population). However, the socioeconomic situation <strong>of</strong> the Americas is qualitatively different to that <strong>of</strong> Africa. GDP per capita for the Caribbean and South and Central America is about double that <strong>of</strong> Africa and the average HDI is 0.78, as compared with 0.53 for Africa. 13 Out <strong>of</strong> a total <strong>of</strong> 41 main armed conflicts globally, 16 occurred in Africa, while there were only 2 in the Americas (DIRECT CONFLICT DEATH). This suggests a different set <strong>of</strong> factors associated with a high homicide rate. While the Americas region does have some history <strong>of</strong> armed conflict (especially in Central and South America), it is drug trafficking, criminal activity, and youth gangs that play a more significant role in driving homicide levels, particularly in Central America and the Caribbean (OTHER FORMS OF ARMED VIOLENCE). <strong>The</strong> drug trade fuels crime in numerous ways: through violence linked to trafficking; by normaliz- ing illegal behaviour; by diverting criminal justice resources from other activities; and, importantly with respect to homicide, by contributing to the widespread availability <strong>of</strong> firearms (UNODC, 2007, p. 15; UNODC and World Bank, 2007, pp. i–ii). By comparison, as a region, Asia has the lowest average intentional homicide rate. However, its subregions show considerable variability, from 6.6 per 100,000 population for Central Asia and Transcaucasia to 2.8 for East and South-east Asia. South Asia is slightly higher at 3.4 per 100,000, as is the Near and Middle East/South-west Asia at 4.4 per 100,000 population. It is worth noting that average homicide levels in South Asia are almost six times lower than for Africa, even though average GDP per capita in South Asia is approximately equal to that for Africa. <strong>The</strong>re is no clear explanation for this, but it does call for a nuanced perspective on the association between economic performance (as measured by GDP) and levels <strong>of</strong> armed violence. Oceania shows a homicide rate slightly higher than for Asia, at 4.0 per 100,000 population. Factors particularly affecting this comparatively low rate may include the unique geographic and demo- graphic features <strong>of</strong> Oceania, with some 23 out <strong>of</strong> 26 countries or territories having a population under 1,000,000 persons. Fifteen <strong>of</strong> these do not reach 100,000 inhabitants. While the regional average is low, countries within Oceania show considerable variability, ranging from 15.2 to less than 1 per 100,000 population. Photo ! An armed gang member in a Rio favela. © Q. Sakamaki/Redux 73 NON- CO N F L I C T A R M E D V I O L E N C E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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G L O B A L www.genevadeclaration.o
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G L O B A L www.genevadeclaration.o
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Foreword Armed vio
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Contents Executive Summary ........
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About the Geneva <
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of direct conflict
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Executive Summary Armed</st
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Figure 1 captures graphically the d
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This report also finds that the aft
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��
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Chapter One Direct Conflict Death <
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approaches that featured cross-nati
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us, non-state and intercommunal arm
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niques and inclusion requirements (
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Figure 1.2 Estimates of</st
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North Africa Sudan 7,284 1,098 2,60
Page 33 and 34: Map 1.1 The GBAV c
Page 35 and 36: �� Increasing di
Page 37 and 38: Table 1.4 Estimated direct conflict
Page 39 and 40: Table 1.7 Direct conflict death rat
Page 41 and 42: accounts overwhelmingly for the glo
Page 43 and 44: Chapter Two The Ma
Page 45 and 46: Sexual violence in armed conflict a
Page 47 and 48: continued for six months due to the
Page 49 and 50: Table 2.1 Comparison of</st
Page 51 and 52: of sexual violence
Page 53 and 54: can be explained by the relatively
Page 55 and 56: Box 2.3 A very dark number: direct
Page 57 and 58: Photo Victims of v
Page 59 and 60: Table 2.5 Violent death estimates f
Page 61 and 62: Chapter Three Armed</strong
Page 63 and 64: ized by a clear victory of<
Page 65 and 66: On the basis of Ch
Page 67 and 68: illegal war economies, including th
Page 69 and 70: standards issued by UNHCR emphasize
Page 71 and 72: Table 3.4 Risk factors for youth vi
Page 73 and 74: Map 3.2 The youth
Page 75 and 76: Given the potential importance <str
Page 77 and 78: interventions based on identified n
Page 79 and 80: Chapter Four Lethal Encounters: Non
Page 81 and 82: violence in Mexico in 2007-08 (BBC,
Page 83: comparisons between regions <strong
Page 87 and 88: the homicide count is derived. None
Page 89 and 90: Table 4.1 National-level homicide t
Page 91 and 92: sistent increases during the time p
Page 93 and 94: Box 4.3 Sex, age, and armed violenc
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Page 97 and 98: American countries have similar tre
Page 99 and 100: evidence on the patterns and distri
Page 101 and 102: Chapter Five What’s in a Number?
Page 103 and 104: observe that war has negative effec
Page 105 and 106: Box 5.1 Accounting for the costs <s
Page 107 and 108: of conflict and co
Page 109 and 110: Table 5.2 The soci
Page 111 and 112: In Uganda, a protracted armed confl
Page 113 and 114: �� Lost product
Page 115 and 116: Figure 5.3 Potential gains in life
Page 117 and 118: playing a role in promoting an end
Page 119 and 120: 16 Specifically, the health and yea
Page 121 and 122: Chapter Six Armed
Page 123 and 124: (Myrttinen, 2003, p. 38). T
Page 125 and 126: NATO Forces and The</strong
Page 127 and 128: go missing, or are killed. In such
Page 129 and 130: disaggregated data is still not ava
Page 131 and 132: Acts of sexual vio
Page 133 and 134: Dowry-related violence A dowry is t
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sex ratios reported at birth is pre
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Chapter Seven Other Forms o
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will likely emerge. Armed</
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Gangs in Central America Central Am
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��
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The absence <stron
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Table 7.1 Recorded cases of
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Figure 7.2 Kidnap for ransom cases
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armed violence, since, beyond the d
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Bibliography Executive Summary CNP
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Burr, M. 1993. A Working Document:
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Thieren, Michael. 2005. ‘Health I
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——. 2008. Small Arms Survey 200
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Nations-Survey-on-Crime-Trends-and-
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ground Paper. Geneva</stron
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--. 2003. ‘Masculinities and Masc
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ights-and-wrongs-of</strong
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Boxes List of Illu
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Map 4.1 Homicide rates per 100,000
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Figure 2.1 Typology of</str
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