écologie des virus influenza aviaires en Camargue - IRD

Chapitre IIFigure 1: Model outputs for the best estimation of the model on the basis of theepidemiological data. The model which involves water­borne and density­dependenttransmission (black dashed line) shows the better agreements with the data (see also Table2). Dashed red lines are confidence intervals for the observed data. The following parameterswere used (i) density­dependent transmission: = 0.01, (ii) frequency­dependenttransmission: = 100, (iii) water­borne transmission: = 6.73, (iv) continuumtransmission: = 0.9982 and = 273.6289, (v) density­dependent and water­bornetransmission: = 2.85.10­4, = 2.34 and (vi) frequency­dependent and water­bornetransmission: = 100, = 1.27. All these models assume 0% of infectious and recoverednewcomers and c = 0 (see online appendix for more details).80