Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table 20. Abundance (number of animals) predicted by the final CCE models and calculated using line-transect methods (Barlow 2003). The model-based estimates used data collected on the 1991-2005 SWFSC surveys while the Barlow (2003) estimates were derived from the 1991-2001 survey data. Comparisons provide a general check on overall model performance. Abundance Species Habitat models Barlow (2003) Striped dolphin 22,146 13,994 Short-beaked common dolphin 507,660 449,846 Risso's dolphin 19,797 16,066 Pacific white-sided dolphin 33,154 59,274 Northern right whale dolphin 16,890 20,362 Dall's porpoise 66,467 98,617 Sperm whale 1,234 1,233 Fin whale 3,388 3,279 Blue whale 2,862 1,736 Humpback whale 1,373 1,314 Baird’s beaked whale 600 407 Small beaked whales 8,259 5,878 Variables that had the greatest effect on the final encounter rate models for all species were SST, depth, and Beaufort sea state, the latter reflecting this variable’s effect on detection probability (Table 21). The percentage of deviance explained by the final encounter rate models ranged from 5% (sperm whale) to 42% (Dall’s porpoise) (Table 22). Corresponding figures for the final group size models ranged from 0% (humpback whale) to 35% (Pacific white-sided dolphin). Across all years, density ratios (density calculated using standard line-transect methods divided by density predicted by the habitat model, Appendix A) were close to unity for most species (range 0.86 - 1.50), indicating that - on average - model density estimates were similar to line-transect density estimates. Individual annual density ratios were more variable ranging from approximately 0.3 to 3.0, indicating that predictions for any given year were within a factor of three of the standard line-transect density estimates. Density plots reflecting both yearly and averaged predictions in comparison to observed sightings (Appendix A) revealed that the final CCE models were effective at capturing the general distribution patterns of the 12 species. For example, the final model for Dall’s porpoise was effective at capturing the yearly shifts in distribution (Fig. 26). Standard errors and upper and lower lognormal 90% confidence limits show the variance in the average density estimates across all years (Fig. 27). 82
Table 21. Predictor variables included in the final encounter rate (ER) and group size (GS) GAMs for the CCE. Linear fits are represented by “L1”. Smoothing splines are represented by "S#", where # is the associated degrees of freedom. Variables included as potential predictors in all models were: distance to the 2,000-m isobath (Dist 2000), depth, slope, sea surface temperature (SST), the coefficient of variation (CV) of SST, and Beaufort sea state (BF). Additional variables included as potential predictors in the combined models were: mixed layer depth (MLD), the natural log of chlorophyll (ln CHL) and salinity (SAL). Predictor Variables All Models Combined Models Only Dist CV ln Species Model 2000 Depth Slope SST (SST) BF MLD CHL SAL Striped dolphin ER S2 S2 L1 GS L1 Short-beaked ER S3 S3 S2 L1 S3 S3 S3 common dolphin GS L1 L1 Risso's dolphin ER CAT 1 S2 GS L1 Pacific white-sided ER S3 S3 S3 S3 L1 dolphin GS S2 L1 L1 Northern right ER S3 S3 S3 L1 L1 S2 whale dolphin GS L1 L1 Dall's porpoise ER S3 L1 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 GS S3 S2 L1 S2 Sperm whale ER S2 S3 S2 S3 GS L1 L1 Fin whale ER S3 S3 L1 L1 GS S3 S3 Blue whale ER S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 GS L1 L1 L1 Humpback whale ER GS L1 L1 S2 S3 L1 L1 Small beaked ER L1 L1 L1 whales GS L1 S2 Baird’s beaked ER CAT 2 whale GS CAT 2 1 The ER model included a categorical variable representing different regions of the study area (see text for details). 2 The ER and GS model included a categorical variable to indicate areas within 50 km of the 2,000m isobath (see text for details). 83
Page 1 and 2:
U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
Page 3:
C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
Page 6 and 7:
This report was prepared under cont
Page 8 and 9:
Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
Page 10 and 11:
C.1 Journal Publications ..........
Page 12 and 13:
Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
Page 14 and 15:
List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
Page 16 and 17:
Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
Page 18 and 19:
Acknowledgements This project was f
Page 20 and 21:
of these choices as possible and us
Page 22 and 23:
Although our models include most of
Page 24 and 25:
2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27:
comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29:
Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31:
used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33:
3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35:
variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 36 and 37:
Table 2. Variogram model results. A
Page 38 and 39:
“number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41:
Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43:
were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45:
Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 46 and 47:
Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
Page 48 and 49:
Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51:
incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53:
overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 56 and 57: Table 7. Geographically stratified
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
Page 64 and 65: Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
Page 66 and 67: Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
Page 96 and 97: 0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
Page 98 and 99: Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
Page 100 and 101: Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
Page 102 and 103: Blue whales had the greatest deviat
Page 106 and 107: Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
Page 108 and 109: Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155:
Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157:
Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187:
Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189:
Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191:
Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193:
Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195:
Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197:
Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199:
Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201:
Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203:
Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205:
Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207:
Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209:
Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211:
Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213:
Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215:
Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
Page 216 and 217:
Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
Page 218 and 219:
Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
Page 220 and 221:
Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
Page 222 and 223:
Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
Page 224 and 225:
Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
Page 226 and 227:
Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
Page 228 and 229:
Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
show all

Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?