Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-2. Summary of model validation statistics for final eastern spinner dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.884 2160.047 748.974 0.846 330.287 390.329 0.089 24.000 270.598 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 0.052 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 42.954 0.000 0.000 56.067 0.000 0.000 28.626 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.590 2094.445 3551.730 1.212 1598.600 1318.601 1.011 1643.102 1625.583 Oligotrophic Offshore 7.928 350.460 44.206 0.361 86.100 238.486 0.000 0.000 131.800 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 137.006 0.328 109.167 332.839 0.656 172.967 263.651 North Equatorial Current 1.522 1072.337 704.679 2.945 1088.835 369.670 0.223 65.400 292.643 Study Area 1.049 4604.952 4387.864 1.008 2014.987 1999.433 0.810 1667.102 2057.158 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.478 252.907 529.456 0.569 271.870 477.470 1.875 2961.355 1579.353 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 8.382 NA NA NA 1.828 178.830 97.815 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 36.126 0.798 34.750 43.545 0.509 37.500 73.736 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.799 3040.564 3807.065 0.717 1351.337 1885.348 0.909 5778.690 6354.898 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 33.181 0.101 23.583 234.067 1.862 553.763 297.379 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.200 32.667 163.090 0.119 30.983 259.786 0.437 176.743 404.646 North Equatorial Current 0.001 1.000 696.801 0.067 23.583 350.930 1.864 2437.360 1307.296 Study Area 0.746 3293.471 4414.213 0.637 1681.540 2640.548 1.132 9510.137 8404.327 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.409 247.346 604.597 0.880 898.855 1021.253 0.854 729.339 853.671 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 9.881 0.000 0.000 32.260 0.000 0.000 56.165 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 17.041 0.000 0.000 11.727 0.000 0.000 11.861 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.985 4364.758 4432.719 1.124 5091.692 4531.250 1.531 6232.128 4069.902 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 117.464 0.000 0.000 234.035 2.394 342.583 143.120 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.152 33.000 217.445 0.470 142.750 304.038 2.112 439.417 208.064 North Equatorial Current 0.821 549.947 669.467 0.703 589.050 838.028 3.291 2287.533 695.138 Study Area 0.888 4612.104 5193.253 1.027 5990.547 5831.324 1.423 7304.050 5134.433 134
Table B-2 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final eastern spinner dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.393 1131.250 812.208 1.236 9007.256 7287.909 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 2.677 0.863 178.830 207.232 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 21.343 0.211 72.250 343.026 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 2.632 6784.450 2578.031 1.112 37979.766 34155.128 Oligotrophic Offshore 6.558 1438.560 219.347 1.651 2795.049 1693.086 North Equatorial Countercurrent 4.099 1820.673 444.162 1.082 2958.367 2734.727 North Equatorial Current 4.124 2081.537 504.763 1.586 10196.582 6429.416 Study Area 2.573 9354.260 3635.110 1.145 50033.150 43697.662 135
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
Page 106 and 107: Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
Page 108 and 109: Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 158 and 159: Table B-3. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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