Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-15. Summary of model validation statistics for final small beaked whale density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.120 12.500 11.163 0.000 0.000 3.409 1.215 5.000 4.114 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 0.554 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.437 5.000 11.433 1.102 8.000 7.263 1.559 34.417 22.080 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.874 16.167 18.495 0.974 7.000 7.186 0.532 7.000 13.155 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 2.325 2.142 5.333 2.489 0.000 0.000 5.974 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 2.249 2.754 8.333 3.026 0.560 2.000 3.572 North Equatorial Current 1.407 5.167 3.673 0.000 0.000 1.913 0.000 0.000 6.974 Study Area 0.773 33.667 43.573 1.019 22.333 21.919 1.147 58.417 50.935 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.683 5.000 7.321 1.974 11.000 5.573 0.817 12.500 15.301 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 0.889 NA NA NA 2.889 2.000 0.692 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.079 1.000 12.651 1.414 30.000 21.224 0.860 17.467 20.305 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.361 9.000 24.919 0.912 12.500 13.713 0.934 31.500 33.727 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 0.390 0.766 8.000 10.444 0.782 6.000 7.677 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 1.197 1.100 9.000 8.185 1.026 7.000 6.826 North Equatorial Current 0.000 0.000 3.775 0.000 0.000 5.894 0.801 6.500 8.119 Study Area 0.365 17.000 46.581 1.189 69.000 58.036 0.873 75.467 86.400 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.786 6.333 8.058 0.590 6.000 10.178 0.413 2.000 4.846 West Baja Peninsula 2.223 2.000 0.899 0.610 2.500 4.095 0.617 1.000 1.621 Equatorial Cold Tongue 2.981 40.500 13.588 0.731 5.000 6.836 0.000 0.000 4.091 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.056 27.667 26.207 1.800 50.333 27.964 1.131 29.333 25.943 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.995 5.000 5.023 1.130 6.000 5.307 0.560 1.000 1.785 North Equatorial Countercurrent 1.856 9.667 5.209 1.568 7.000 4.464 2.280 5.000 2.193 North Equatorial Current 0.234 2.000 8.553 0.507 4.000 7.895 0.707 4.000 5.655 Study Area 1.413 88.500 62.620 1.247 76.167 61.059 0.798 36.333 45.542 160
Table B-15 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final small beaked whale density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.013 18.833 9.358 0.998 79.167 79.321 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 0.927 0.775 7.500 9.678 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.410 9.833 6.973 1.196 151.217 126.443 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.054 15.500 14.703 1.000 206.000 206.012 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 4.025 0.690 31.333 45.440 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.803 3.500 4.359 1.248 51.500 41.279 North Equatorial Current 0.182 1.000 5.490 0.391 22.667 57.941 Study Area 1.162 47.167 40.584 1.013 524.050 517.248 161
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
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Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215: Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
Page 216 and 217: Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
Page 218 and 219: Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
Page 220 and 221: Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
Page 222 and 223: Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
Page 224 and 225: Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
Page 226 and 227: Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
Page 228 and 229: Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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