Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

Although our models include most of the species found in the CCE and the ETP, sample
sizes were too small to model density for rarely seen species. Additionally, we could not
develop models for the cold season in the CCE or for areas around the Hawaiian Islands due to
data limitations. To provide the best available density estimates for these data-limited cases, we
have included stratified estimates of density from traditional line-transect analyses in the SDSS
where available: cold-season estimates from aerial surveys off California, estimates from ship
surveys in the US EEZ around Hawaii, and estimates for rarely seen species found in the CCE
and the ETP.
The transition of our research to operational use by the Navy was facilitated throughout
our project through a series of workshops conducted with potential Navy users. These
workshops ensured that the SDSS would meet Navy user needs. The on-line SDSS web site will
ensure continued availability of the density estimates from our models and will be available for
use by Navy planners within a month of the completion of this report. The SDSS will, however,
be just the first step in the transition to general usage. Although Duke University is willing to
host the web site in the short term, a permanent site is needed with base-funded, long-term
support. Because the models and software have utility to a much greater user community than
just the Navy or other branches of the military, the software might be best maintained by NOAA.
In addition to maintenance of the web site, the models themselves need to be maintained to
incorporate new survey data. Furthermore, there is a need to expand the models to include more
areas (e.g., Hawaii), different seasons (e.g., the cold-season in the CCE), migration patterns (e.g.,
baleen whales), and additional species (e.g., pinnipeds). Recent advances in processing and
integrating remotely sensed data, ocean circulation models, buoy data, ship reports, and animal
tagging data may offer new approaches to improving models in the future. There is also a need
to obtain buy-in from the regulatory agencies (primarily NOAA) for the use of these models as
the “best available” estimates of cetacean density in environmental compliance documents. This
buy-in can best be achieved by educating the staff in NOAA Headquarters and Regional Offices
on the use of, and scientific justification for, model-based estimates. The maintenance and
improvement of our SDSS for cetaceans might be best achieved by a long-term partnership
between Navy and NOAA.
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