Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-11. Summary of model validation statistics for final Bryde's whale density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.730 3.000 4.111 0.000 0.000 0.895 0.000 0.000 2.983 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 0.154 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.598 9.430 15.781 0.481 5.000 10.395 0.756 16.333 21.616 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.517 4.000 7.739 0.000 0.000 3.041 0.598 5.333 8.920 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 1.671 0.000 0.000 1.999 0.976 6.000 6.148 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 1.815 0.000 0.000 1.523 1.746 7.333 4.200 North Equatorial Current 0.924 2.000 2.165 0.000 0.000 1.970 0.407 3.000 7.371 Study Area 0.553 16.430 29.699 0.262 5.000 19.052 0.709 33.667 47.470 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.000 0.000 3.213 0.000 0.000 3.984 1.182 9.000 7.615 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 1.189 NA NA NA 1.335 6.000 4.493 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.923 17.000 18.415 0.775 24.167 31.191 1.703 46.148 27.091 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.093 1.000 10.801 1.006 7.000 6.960 0.958 20.200 21.085 Oligotrophic Offshore 2.958 1.750 0.592 0.422 3.000 7.104 1.129 6.667 5.907 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 1.125 0.177 1.000 5.660 1.153 5.667 4.916 North Equatorial Current 0.502 1.750 3.486 1.537 8.000 5.205 1.308 13.200 10.090 Study Area 0.591 20.750 35.082 0.720 41.500 57.647 1.208 100.014 82.797 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.318 2.000 6.291 1.090 6.000 5.507 1.726 6.667 3.862 West Baja Peninsula 2.168 9.490 4.378 1.191 5.667 4.759 4.740 23.655 4.990 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.735 19.000 10.953 1.008 11.833 11.734 3.479 34.200 9.831 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.660 12.667 19.192 1.348 22.280 16.530 0.652 9.600 14.719 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.647 4.333 6.695 1.806 5.000 2.769 3.180 6.750 2.123 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.661 4.333 6.560 1.286 3.800 2.955 2.742 5.417 1.975 North Equatorial Current 0.301 3.000 9.974 1.236 9.000 7.284 0.951 6.933 7.288 Study Area 1.083 61.490 56.771 1.201 64.447 53.651 1.782 84.872 47.634 152
Table B-11 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final Bryde's whale density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.582 2.000 3.438 0.684 28.667 41.897 West Baja Peninsula 2.767 3.000 1.084 2.272 47.812 21.046 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.183 17.000 14.368 1.168 200.111 171.375 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.462 5.000 10.834 0.727 87.080 119.822 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.506 2.500 4.937 0.901 36.000 39.945 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 3.240 0.811 27.550 33.969 North Equatorial Current 0.886 6.500 7.338 0.859 53.383 62.171 Study Area 1.029 42.847 41.649 0.999 471.016 471.452 153
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215: Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
Page 216 and 217: Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
Page 218 and 219: Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
Page 220 and 221: Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
Page 222 and 223: Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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