Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-4. Summary of model validation statistics for final striped dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.084 1277.749 1178.568 2.072 590.269 284.830 1.398 1030.246 736.730 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 53.452 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.366 2285.165 1672.728 1.013 1302.177 1285.939 1.478 3969.308 2684.924 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.554 840.793 1518.053 0.731 504.750 690.837 1.236 1794.593 1452.379 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.687 155.837 226.697 0.077 20.334 263.532 1.153 763.485 661.965 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.140 36.667 262.725 1.134 252.584 222.762 1.184 543.097 458.532 North Equatorial Current 0.815 363.696 446.016 0.203 69.500 342.406 0.886 820.651 925.968 Study Area 0.987 4559.544 4621.747 0.948 2633.862 2778.770 1.323 8245.881 6234.015 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.927 799.083 861.799 1.053 874.833 831.014 1.764 2701.253 1531.057 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 102.628 NA NA NA 0.355 18.000 50.768 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.403 2706.237 1928.433 0.629 1817.895 2889.431 0.846 2508.851 2964.764 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.811 1688.053 2081.866 1.237 1450.081 1172.051 0.674 2024.141 3004.527 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 41.970 1.449 997.916 688.691 1.577 1065.422 675.480 North Equatorial Countercurrent 1.354 187.667 138.645 2.112 1240.080 587.034 1.541 950.032 616.470 North Equatorial Current 0.253 138.467 546.278 0.925 654.083 706.967 0.753 1013.524 1345.103 Study Area 1.057 5390.373 5100.379 0.846 5318.725 6289.412 0.956 8617.885 9018.313 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.683 966.086 1414.785 0.778 921.659 1184.599 1.506 691.665 459.334 West Baja Peninsula 0.229 25.000 108.947 0.182 41.000 224.944 0.848 139.250 164.236 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.313 1698.800 1293.596 1.067 1122.507 1052.297 1.875 1069.663 570.606 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.701 2442.887 3486.596 1.111 3486.594 3139.155 0.805 1362.263 1692.440 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.731 396.768 542.546 1.264 591.984 468.362 0.692 120.000 173.408 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.741 421.605 569.019 1.245 476.000 382.434 1.503 350.832 233.383 North Equatorial Current 0.593 819.581 1383.257 1.082 1361.486 1258.673 0.949 691.332 728.456 Study Area 0.851 6299.263 7398.012 0.970 6403.411 6601.520 1.126 3894.174 3457.912 138
Table B-4 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final striped dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.212 1681.111 759.983 1.248 11533.954 9242.699 West Baja Peninsula 0.714 115.000 161.060 0.391 338.250 866.036 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.845 917.749 1086.551 1.113 19398.352 17429.270 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.281 2053.329 1603.280 0.889 17647.484 19841.185 Oligotrophic Offshore 2.087 839.573 402.198 1.195 4951.318 4144.849 North Equatorial Countercurrent 2.627 762.507 290.307 1.388 5221.072 3761.311 North Equatorial Current 1.042 981.316 941.680 0.802 6913.636 8624.803 Study Area 1.420 6343.432 4466.927 1.031 57706.550 55967.007 139
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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