Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table 4. Summary of the weighted effective strip width (ESW = 1/ f(0)) and g(0) estimates used to calculate predicted densities for the CCE. The original values are those estimated from the 1991-2001 survey data (Barlow 2003), which included both perception and availability bias to the extent possible. These values are weighted by the number of small and large groups observed during the 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001, and 2005 surveys. ESW g(0) Species Group size original weighted original weighted Striped dolphin 1-20 0.50 0.77 21-100 1.24 0.97 1.00 0.89 100+ 1.88 1.00 Short-beaked common dolphin 1-20 0.50 0.77 21-100 1.24 1.32 1.00 0.95 100+ 1.88 1.00 Risso’s dolphin 1-20 1.37 0.74 20+ 2.18 1.63 1.00 0.82 Pacific white-sided dolphin 1-20 0.50 0.77 21-100 1.24 0.92 1.00 0.86 100+ 1.88 1.00 Northern right whale dolphin 1-20 0.50 0.77 21-100 1.24 0.78 1.00 0.84 100+ 1.88 1.00 Dall’s porpoise all 0.82 0.82 0.79 0.79 Sperm whale all 4.61 4.61 0.87 0.87 Fin whale all 1.72 1.72 0.90 0.90 Blue whale all 1.72 1.72 0.90 0.90 Humpback whale all 2.89 2.89 0.90 0.90 Baird’s beaked whale all 2.83 2.83 0.96 0.96 Small beaked whales all 1.76 1.76 0.34* 0.34 * Based on average g(0) for Mesoplodon (Mesoplodon spp.) and Cuvier’s beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris). <strong>Final</strong> CCE Model Selection As described above, we developed two candidate “pre-final” CCE models for each species: one built with remotely sensed habitat variables, and one 'combined' model built with both remotely sensed data and interpolated in situ data (see Section 4.1). Initially, models were built for the ten species with the greatest number of sightings in order to provide the most robust environmental models: striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), short-beaked common dolphin, Risso’s dolphin, Pacific white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens), northern right whale dolphin, Dall’s porpoise, sperm whale, fin whale, blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), and humpback whale. As part of the final model selection process, we convened an expert workshop to solicit feedback on the pre-final spatial models for both the CCE and ETP study areas. The scientists who participated in the workshop all have significant field and research experience within these oceanic regions and are recognized for their extensive knowledge of cetacean distributions in the study areas. The experts were shown maps with smoothed density predictions for 10 species in 24
the CCE and 15 species in the ETP. At least two maps were presented for each species; competing maps varied either by the predictor variables included in the models (CCE) or by the analytical methods used to develop the models (ETP). The experts provided comments and participated in open discussions regarding the ability of the models to capture known distributions for each species. For those cases where the maps failed to capture overall distribution patterns, the experts provided input on predictor variables that might be included in future models to increase their predictive ability. For species like Risso's dolphins whose modeled density plots did not appear to capture major distribution patterns, the experts suggested that it would be worth investigating the performance of a model that included one or two static variables, such as categorical stratum variables. Based on workshop discussions, we built CCE habitat models for two additional species/guilds: Baird's beaked whale, and small beaked whales (Ziphius and Mesoplodon). Figure 6. Geographic strata used for the CCE spatial predictions. The eight strata include waters inshore and offshore of the 2000 m isobath in Oregon/Washington, Northern California, Central California, and Southern California. In addition to input received at the expert workshop, final model selection was based on a comparison of the models’ ability to predict on a novel dataset. We compared total study area density ratios and standard errors (SEs) of density ratios for the competing models’ 2005 predictions. In addition, these measures were compared to those of predictions made on the individual years that went into the model building. We also included a spatial measure of model performance in our evaluation by looking at the density ratios on a geographically stratified basis. To facilitate the spatial analysis, we stratified the study area into eight regions (Fig. 6). 25
Page 1 and 2: U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
Page 3: C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
Page 6 and 7: This report was prepared under cont
Page 8 and 9: Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
Page 10 and 11: C.1 Journal Publications ..........
Page 12 and 13: Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
Page 14 and 15: List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
Page 16 and 17: Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
Page 18 and 19: Acknowledgements This project was f
Page 20 and 21: of these choices as possible and us
Page 22 and 23: Although our models include most of
Page 24 and 25: 2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27: comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31: used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33: 3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35: variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 36 and 37: Table 2. Variogram model results. A
Page 38 and 39: “number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41: Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43: were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45: Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 48 and 49: Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51: incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53: overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 56 and 57: Table 7. Geographically stratified
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
Page 64 and 65: Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
Page 66 and 67: Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
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Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
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Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
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Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
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Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
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Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
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Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
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Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
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Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
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Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
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Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
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Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
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Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
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Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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