Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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needed to ensure that the SDSS remains the source for the best available information on cetacean densities. 3) Continuing development of habitat modeling for marine mammals. Although our program has been able to investigate many previously unexplored aspects of habitat modeling, many areas have not yet been explored. Entirely new approaches are needed to model the continuously changing distributions of migratory species, such as blue, fin, and gray whales. Global ocean circulations models have now reached the state of development where oceanographic conditions can be forecast several months in advance. Those models could be coupled with cetacean habitat models to predict cetacean distributions as well. This information could be used to improve the Navy’s ability to predict where negative interactions with marine mammals are likely to occur and allow better planning of naval exercises. 96
7.0 References Austin MP (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol Model 157:101-118 Barlow J (1988) Harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance estimation in California, Oregon and Washington: I. Ship surveys. Fish Bull 86:417-432 Barlow J (1994) Abundance of large whales in California coastal waters: a comparison of ship surveys in 1979/80 and in 1991. Report No. Report of the International Whaling Commission 44 Barlow J (1995) The abundance of cetaceans in California waters. Part I: Ship surveys in summer and fall of 1991. Fish Bull 93:1-14 Barlow J (1999) Trackline detection probability for long-diving whales. In: Garner GW, Amstrup SC, Laake JL, Manly BFJ, McDonald LL, Robertson DG (eds) Marine Mammal Survery and Assessment Methods. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, p 209-221 Barlow J (2003) Preliminary estimates of the abundance of cetaceans along the U.S. west coast: 1991-2001. Report No. Administrative report LJ-03-03, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Barlow J (2006) Cetacean abundance in Hawaiian waters estimated from a summer/fall survey in 2002. Mar Mamm Sci 22: 446-464 Barlow J, Forney KA (2007) Abundance and density of cetaceans in the California Current Ecosystem. Fish Bull 105:509-526 Barlow J, Gerrodette T, Forcada J (2001) Factors affecting perpendicular sighting distances on shipboard line-transect surveys for cetaceans. Journal of Cetacean Research and Management 3:201-212 Barlow J, Gerrodette T, Silber G (1997) First estimates of vaquita abundance. Mar Mamm Sci 13:44-58 Barlow J, Oliver C, Jackson TD, Taylor BL (1988) Harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance estimation in California, Oregon and Washington: II. Aerial surveys. Fish Bull 86:433-444 Barlow J, Rankin S (2007) False killer whale abundance and density: Preliminary estimates for the PICEAS study area south of Hawaii and new estimates for the US EEZ around Hawaii. 97
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
Page 96 and 97: 0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
Page 98 and 99: Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
Page 100 and 101: Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
Page 102 and 103: Blue whales had the greatest deviat
Page 104 and 105: Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
Page 106 and 107: Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
Page 108 and 109: Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-8. Summary of model validat
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Table B-9. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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