Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the simple and complex group size GAMs for the ETP. Guild Model Type gam.method Spline gamma Total EDF sum(abs(1-R)) Explained Deviance ASPE Cuvier's Beaked Whale Simple magic ts 1.000 10.324 0.543 0.217 1.138 Complex mgcv cs 1.000 16.626 0.621 0.202 1.185 Blue Whale Simple magic ts 1.400 7.571 0.737 0.300 2.469 Complex magic cs 1.000 33.089 0.324 0.586 1.519 Bryde's Whale Simple magic ts 1.000 6.194 0.705 0.073 1.108 Complex NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Short-finned Pilot Whale Simple magic ts 1.000 5.428 1.080 0.059 261.772 Complex magic cs 1.000 11.473 1.391 0.117 248.580 Dwarf Sperm Whale Simple magic ts 1.400 1.847 1.368 0.051 1.343 Complex mgcv cs 1.000 18.484 1.118 0.330 0.977 Mesoplodon spp. Simple magic ts 1.000 9.422 0.763 0.238 0.678 Complex mgcv ts 1.000 14.329 0.768 0.274 0.653 Small Beaked Whale Simple magic ts 1.000 5.117 0.876 0.067 0.850 Complex magic cs 1.000 21.796 0.689 0.175 0.758 54
4.3 Model Scale: Resolution and Extent 4.3.1 Resolution Selecting an Appropriate Resolution for ETP Cetacean-Habitat Models We found that resolution did not affect the functional form of habitat relationships or maps of predicted densities and that inter-annual habitat variability had a greater impact on the predictive power of the habitat models than resolution. The absence of scale dependence in these models suggests that the resolutions evaluated (2 to 120 km) occur within a single domain of scale, which is defined as a range of resolutions over which ecological patterns do not vary (Wiens 1989). Results of our analyses have already been published (Redfern et al. 2008) and are therefore not repeated in detail here. A transect segment length of approximately 10 km was used for the ETP models. Selecting an Appropriate Resolution for CCE Cetacean-Habitat Models We summarized dolphin and oceanographic data in 2, 10, 20, 40, 60, and 120 km segments along the transect lines. We selected four species which represented a broad range of habitat preferences: striped dolphin, short-beaked common dolphin, Risso’s dolphin, and northern right whale dolphin. Over 15,000 km of sampling data (Fig. 15) collected by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA Fisheries) were used in the analyses. The data were collected from two comparable research vessels from late July until early December in 1991, 1993, 1996, and 2001. Data collection procedures are reported elsewhere (Kinzey et al. 2000, Barlow et al. 2001, Fiedler and Philbrick 2002). Encounter rate and group size models were built at each resolution for the four species considered in our analyses; methods followed those published in Redfern et al. (2008). The total number of segments and number of dolphin sightings are presented in Table 12. Habitat variables used in our analyses include surface temperature and salinity, the natural logarithm of surface chlorophyll concentration, thermocline depth and strength, seafloor depth, an estimate of temperature fronts defined as the difference between the minimum and maximum temperatures on a segment, and Beaufort sea state, which was used to account for the difficulty of detecting dolphins at higher Beaufort sea states (Barlow et al. 2001). 55
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27: comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31: used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33: 3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35: variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 36 and 37: Table 2. Variogram model results. A
Page 38 and 39: “number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41: Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43: were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45: Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
Page 48 and 49: Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51: incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53: overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 56 and 57: Table 7. Geographically stratified
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
Page 64 and 65: Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
Page 66 and 67: Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
Page 96 and 97: 0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
Page 98 and 99: Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
Page 100 and 101: Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
Page 102 and 103: Blue whales had the greatest deviat
Page 104 and 105: Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
Page 106 and 107: Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
Page 108 and 109: Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
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Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
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Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
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Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
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Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
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Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
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Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
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Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
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Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
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Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
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Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
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Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
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Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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