Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table 7. Geographically stratified estimates of abundance (N), density (D), coefficient of variation (CV), and lognormal 90% confidence intervals of density for three ETP cetacean species. Stratum numbers are from Ferguson and Barlow (2003), shown in Figure 8. Coastal spotted dolphin Sperm whale Stratum N CV D L90% U90% Stratum N CV D L90% U90% 85 11,327 0.64 0.0536 0.0205 0.1401 22-23 419 0.71 0.0017 0.0006 0.0048 103 394 1 0.0013 0.0003 0.0051 35-36 75 0.71 0.0002 0.0001 0.0006 118 11,297 0.55 0.0800 0.0344 0.1859 46 440 0.59 0.0035 0.0014 0.0086 119 239 1 0.0009 0.0002 0.0035 47-48 507 0.47 0.0010 0.0005 0.0021 137 10,148 0.48 0.0971 0.0460 0.2049 58 35 0.71 0.0003 0.0001 0.0009 138 771 0.71 0.0037 0.0013 0.0106 59 282 0.42 0.0011 0.0006 0.0021 158 4,473 0.71 0.0432 0.0152 0.1232 60 64 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 179-181 3,070 0.58 0.0291 0.0120 0.0704 71 53 0.71 0.0008 0.0003 0.0023 Killer whale 72 128 0.43 0.0005 0.0003 0.0010 Stratum N CV D L90% U90% 73 63 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 35-36 1,370 0.9 0.0030 0.0008 0.0106 85 206 0.71 0.0010 0.0004 0.0029 46 37 1 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 86 348 0.53 0.0013 0.0006 0.0029 47-48 188 1 0.0004 0.0001 0.0016 87 110 1 0.0004 0.0001 0.0016 59 111 0.71 0.0004 0.0001 0.0011 103 886 0.72 0.0030 0.0010 0.0087 72 63 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 104 31 0.71 0.0001 0.0000 0.0003 85 28 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 105 78 1 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 86 84 0.71 0.0003 0.0001 0.0009 106 195 0.71 0.0007 0.0002 0.0020 87 61 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 111-112 56 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 101-102 15 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 119 487 0.47 0.0018 0.0009 0.0037 103 20 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 121 113 0.71 0.0004 0.0001 0.0011 104 59 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 124 261 0.77 0.0009 0.0003 0.0028 105 39 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 137 450 0.43 0.0043 0.0022 0.0084 119 62 0.71 0.0002 0.0001 0.0006 138 534 0.62 0.0026 0.0010 0.0066 121 82 1 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 139 1,253 0.52 0.0041 0.0018 0.0091 122 40 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 140 297 0.75 0.0010 0.0003 0.0030 124 232 0.71 0.0008 0.0003 0.0023 141 336 0.71 0.0011 0.0004 0.0031 126 59 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 142 378 1 0.0012 0.0003 0.0047 127 449 0.71 0.0015 0.0005 0.0043 143 272 0.64 0.0009 0.0003 0.0024 128-129 835 0.58 0.0014 0.0006 0.0034 144 311 0.58 0.0010 0.0004 0.0024 138 14 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 145 702 1 0.0023 0.0006 0.0090 139 54 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 147 194 1 0.0006 0.0002 0.0024 140 45 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 148 306 0.71 0.0010 0.0004 0.0029 141 292 0.58 0.0010 0.0004 0.0024 149 204 1 0.0007 0.0002 0.0027 142 217 1 0.0007 0.0002 0.0027 150-151 50 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 143 219 0.58 0.0007 0.0003 0.0017 158 1,010 0.86 0.0098 0.0029 0.0332 147 110 1 0.0004 0.0001 0.0016 159 1,583 0.41 0.0051 0.0027 0.0097 150-151 477 1 0.0008 0.0002 0.0031 160 1,072 0.5 0.0035 0.0016 0.0076 159 108 0.71 0.0004 0.0001 0.0011 161 158 0.58 0.0005 0.0002 0.0012 160 220 0.63 0.0007 0.0003 0.0018 162 271 0.58 0.0009 0.0004 0.0022 164 55 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 164 169 1 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 166 231 0.58 0.0007 0.0003 0.0017 165 164 0.71 0.0005 0.0002 0.0014 182 50 1 0.0018 0.0005 0.0071 166 140 1 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 200 58 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 179-181 240 0.55 0.0023 0.0010 0.0053 201 349 0.64 0.0011 0.0004 0.0029 200 2,829 0.69 0.0105 0.0038 0.0292 202 372 1 0.0012 0.0003 0.0047 201 318 0.64 0.0010 0.0004 0.0026 203 139 0.71 0.0004 0.0001 0.0011 202 295 0.6 0.0010 0.0004 0.0025 205 156 1 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 203 162 1 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 207 902 1 0.0029 0.0007 0.0114 204 312 1 0.0010 0.0003 0.0039 212 170 1 0.0006 0.0002 0.0024 205 253 0.58 0.0008 0.0003 0.0019 213 772 0.71 0.0025 0.0009 0.0071 206 1,004 0.66 0.0033 0.0012 0.0088 215-216 296 1 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 207 36 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0004 218-220 3,116 0.58 0.0040 0.0017 0.0097 211 2,057 0.67 0.0071 0.0026 0.0193 212 63 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 213 66 1 0.0002 0.0001 0.0008 214 77 1 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 215-216 409 0.58 0.0007 0.0003 0.0017 218-220 11,969 0.71 0.0152 0.0053 0.0433 34
Table 8. Geographically stratified estimates of abundance (N), density (D), coefficient of variation (CV), and lognormal 90% confidence intervals of density for unmodeled cetacean species within EEZ waters of the Hawaiian Islands. HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (Barlow 2006, Barlow and Rankin 2007) Species Area N CV D L90% U90% Offshore spotted dolphin Outer EEZ stratum 4,695 0.485 0.00210 0.00099 0.00445 Main HI Islands stratum 4,283 0.485 0.02012 0.00947 0.04274 Striped dolphin Hawaiian EEZ 13,143 0.464 0.00536 0.00260 0.01105 Spinner dolphin Outer EEZ stratum 1,863 0.737 0.00083 0.00028 0.00245 Main HI Islands stratum 1,488 0.737 0.00699 0.00237 0.02059 Rough-toothed dolphin Hawaiian EEZ 8,709 0.450 0.00355 0.00176 0.00718 Bottlenose dolphin Hawaiian EEZ 3,215 0.586 0.00131 0.00054 0.00320 Risso's dolphin Hawaiian EEZ 2,372 0.647 0.00097 0.00037 0.00255 Fraser's dolphin Hawaiian EEZ 10,226 1.156 0.00417 0.00092 0.01888 Melon-headed whale Hawaiian EEZ 2,950 1.172 0.00120 0.00026 0.00553 Pygmy killer whale Hawaiian EEZ 956 0.826 0.00039 0.00012 0.00127 False killer whale Hawaiian EEZ 484 0.930 0.00020 0.00005 0.00072 Short-finned pilot whale Outer EEZ stratum 5,680 0.380 0.00254 0.00139 0.00463 Main HI Islands stratum 3,190 0.380 0.01498 0.00821 0.02735 Killer whale Hawaiian EEZ 349 0.982 0.00014 0.00004 0.00055 Sperm whale Hawaiian EEZ 6,919 0.806 0.00282 0.00088 0.00900 Pygmy sperm whale Hawaiian EEZ 7,138 1.124 0.00291 0.00066 0.01282 Dwarf sperm whale Hawaiian EEZ 17,519 0.742 0.00714 0.00241 0.02115 Small beaked whale Hawaiian EEZ 371 1.172 0.00015 0.00003 0.00069 Blainville's beaked whale Hawaiian EEZ 2,872 1.250 0.00117 0.00024 0.00575 Cuvier's beaked whale Hawaiian EEZ 15,242 1.434 0.00621 0.00110 0.03516 Longman's beaked whale Hawaiian EEZ 1,007 1.256 0.00041 0.00008 0.00202 Sei whale Hawaiian EEZ 469 0.452 0.00019 0.00009 0.00039 3.6 Variance Estimation The output from an ecological model is an approximation to truth (Burnham and Anderson 1998); as such, it has two components: a point estimate (such as the predicted number of whales resulting from a GAM) and an estimate of uncertainty associated with the point estimate. There are numerous sources of uncertainty in the cetacean-habitat population density models described in Section 3.3. The survey design is a source of uncertainty because altering the spatial or temporal distribution of the survey transects would have produced a different set of cetacean and oceanographic data. The process of sighting the animals is stochastic, with some unknown probability that animals within sighting distance will be detected. The environmental data used as predictor variables in the GAMs have measurement error. Sampling error arises from the stochasticity inherent in the process generating the encounter rates and group sizes. Error is introduced when parameters are estimated in fitting the detection functions to estimate f(0) and in building the encounter rate and group size GAMs. Model selection errors are associated with designing the model structure and choosing the appropriate predictor variables and their corresponding degrees of freedom. <strong>Final</strong>ly, there is a component of uncertainty due to a disassociation between the animals’ distribution and the predictor variables used to try to understand the ecology of the system. To complicate matters, the sources of uncertainty outlined 35
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
Page 6 and 7: This report was prepared under cont
Page 8 and 9: Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
Page 10 and 11: C.1 Journal Publications ..........
Page 12 and 13: Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
Page 14 and 15: List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
Page 16 and 17: Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
Page 18 and 19: Acknowledgements This project was f
Page 20 and 21: of these choices as possible and us
Page 22 and 23: Although our models include most of
Page 24 and 25: 2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27: comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31: used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33: 3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35: variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 36 and 37: Table 2. Variogram model results. A
Page 38 and 39: “number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41: Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43: were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45: Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
Page 48 and 49: Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51: incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53: overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
Page 64 and 65: Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
Page 66 and 67: Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
Page 96 and 97: 0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
Page 98 and 99: Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
Page 100 and 101: Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
Page 102 and 103: Blue whales had the greatest deviat
Page 104 and 105: Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
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Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
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Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
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Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
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Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
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Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
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Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
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Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
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Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
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Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
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Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
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Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
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Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
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Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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