Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOAA NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Becker EA (2007) Predicting seasonal patterns of California cetacean density based on remotely sensed environmental data. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of CA, Santa Barbara Buckland ST, Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Laake JL, Borchers DL Thomas L (2001) Introduction to distance sampling: estimating abundance of biological populations. Oxford University Press, New York. 432 pp. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (1998) Model selection and inference: a practical informationtheoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York Burnham KP, Anderson DR, Laake JL (1980) Estimation of density from line transect sampling of biological populations. Wildlife Monographs 72:202 Carretta JV, Forney KA (1993) Report on two aerial surveys for marine mammals in California coastal waters utilizing a NOAA DeHavilland Twin Otter Aircraft: March 9-April7, 1991 and February 8-April 6, 1992. Report No. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-185, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Carretta JV, Forney KA, Benson, SR (In press) Preliminary estimates of harbor porpoise abundance in California waters from 2002 to 2007. U.S. Dep Commer, NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-SWFSC. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Carretta JV, Forney KA, Laake JL (1998) Abundance of southern California coastal bottlenose dolphins estimated from tandem aerial surveys. Mar Mamm Sci 14:655-675 Carretta JV, Forney KA, Lowry MS, Barlow J, Baker J, Hanson B, Muto MM (2007) U. S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments: 2007. U.S. Dep Commer, NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-SWFSC-414. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, 316p Carton JA, Chepurin G, Cao X, Giese BS (2000) A Simple Ocean Data Assimilation analysis of the global upper ocean 1950-1995, Part 1: methodology. Journal of Physical Oceanography 30:294-309 Dudzik KJ, Baker KM, Weller DW (2006) Mark-recapture abundance estimate of California coastal stock bottlenose dolphins: February 2004 to April 2005. SWFSC Administrative Report LJ-06-02C, NOAA NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA 98
Dungan JL, Perry JN, Dale MRT, Legendre P, Citron-Pousty S, Fortin M-J, Jakomulska A, Miriti M, Rosenberg MS (2002) A balanced view of scale in spatial statistical analysis. Ecography 25:626 - 640 Ferguson MC, Barlow J (2001) Spatial distribution and density of cetaceans in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean based on summer/fall research vessel surveys in 1986-96. Report No. Administrative report LJ-01-04, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Ferguson MC, Barlow J (2003) Addendum: Spatial distribution and density of cetaceans in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean based on summer/fall research vessel surveys in 1986-96. Administrative Report LJ-01-04 (Addendum), NOAA NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA Ferguson MC, Barlow J, Fiedler P, Reilly SB, Gerrodette T (2006a) Spatial models of delphinid (family Delphinidae) encounter rate and group size in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Ecol Model 193:645-662 Ferguson MC, Barlow J, Reilly SB, Gerrodette T (2006b) Predicting Cuvier’s (Ziphius cavirostris) and Mesoplodon beaked whale population density from habitat characteristics in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Journal of Cetacean Research and Management 7:287–299 Fiedler PC, Talley LD (2006) Hydrography of the eastern tropical Pacific: a review. Prog Oceanogr 69:143-180 Fiedler PC, Philbrick VA (2002) Environmental change in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean: observations in 1986-1990 and 1998-2000. Report No. LJ-02-15, NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla Fiedler PC, Barlow J, Gerrodette T (1998) Dolphin prey abundance determined from acoustic backscatter data in eastern Pacific surveys. Fish Bull 96:237-247 Fiedler PC, Reilly SB (1994) Inter-annual variability of dolphin habitats in the eastern tropical Pacific. II: Effects on abundances estimated from tuna vessel sightings, 1975-1990. Fish Bull 92:451-463 Finney DJ (1941) On the distribution of a variate whose logarithm is normally distributed. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Supplement 7:155-161 Forney, KA (1997) Patterns of Variability and Environmental Models of Relative Abundance for California Cetaceans. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of CA, San Diego. Forney KA (2000) Environmental models of cetacean abundance: reducing uncertainty in population trends. Conserv Biol 14:1271-1286 99
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
Page 86 and 87: ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
Page 88 and 89: Table 13. Variables selected for mo
Page 90 and 91: Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
Page 92 and 93: Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
Page 94 and 95: species represented in the acoustic
Page 96 and 97: 0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
Page 98 and 99: Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
Page 100 and 101: Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
Page 102 and 103: Blue whales had the greatest deviat
Page 104 and 105: Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
Page 106 and 107: Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
Page 108 and 109: Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
Page 110 and 111: Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-9. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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