Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-5. Summary of model validation statistics for final rough-toothed dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.173 10.000 57.639 0.000 0.000 19.386 0.325 6.000 18.461 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 1.807 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.313 14.600 46.602 0.557 18.450 33.141 3.467 167.217 48.233 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.618 110.206 178.386 0.000 0.000 76.943 1.088 83.283 76.554 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.581 7.000 12.048 1.142 22.500 19.705 0.765 22.333 29.194 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.522 7.000 13.419 0.442 15.000 33.971 0.555 9.333 16.821 North Equatorial Current 0.150 7.750 51.660 0.371 7.500 20.205 0.804 31.933 39.702 Study Area 0.480 141.806 295.296 0.261 40.950 156.819 1.484 278.833 187.882 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.632 47.000 28.803 2.577 71.047 27.567 1.205 102.787 85.294 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 3.708 NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 5.109 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.329 13.000 39.531 1.695 110.100 64.954 1.375 85.430 62.134 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.155 210.240 181.992 0.757 66.700 88.142 0.735 176.046 239.547 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 1.355 0.056 2.000 35.951 0.527 24.786 47.056 North Equatorial Countercurrent 1.267 7.920 6.252 0.304 8.333 27.400 0.000 0.000 41.629 North Equatorial Current 0.120 4.000 33.385 0.000 0.000 35.315 1.698 111.072 65.394 Study Area 1.050 270.240 257.445 1.134 260.179 229.449 0.840 389.049 463.297 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.646 22.550 34.898 1.350 70.897 52.500 0.869 22.600 25.994 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 3.764 0.000 0.000 7.271 0.522 4.000 7.666 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.974 24.373 25.026 0.364 8.848 24.321 1.075 17.000 15.816 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.602 255.216 159.322 1.127 226.858 201.271 1.178 190.594 161.783 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 20.918 2.121 80.583 37.991 0.000 0.000 7.351 North Equatorial Countercurrent 1.851 39.333 21.245 4.993 98.083 19.644 0.000 0.000 8.773 North Equatorial Current 0.639 32.000 50.084 0.968 77.346 79.894 1.259 42.333 33.635 Study Area 1.193 304.140 254.938 1.153 387.186 335.833 1.030 234.194 227.359 140
Table B-5 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final rough-toothed dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 5.336 241.464 45.254 1.502 594.345 395.797 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 4.852 0.117 4.000 34.176 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.244 31.995 25.715 1.274 491.012 385.474 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.201 121.806 101.394 0.983 1440.950 1465.333 Oligotrophic Offshore 2.636 43.350 16.445 0.888 202.552 228.015 North Equatorial Countercurrent 2.312 43.350 18.753 1.098 228.353 207.907 North Equatorial Current 1.669 72.166 43.240 0.853 386.100 452.516 Study Area 2.061 438.614 212.770 1.047 2745.192 2621.089 141
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
Page 112 and 113: We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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