Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-10. Summary of model validation statistics for final blue whale density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.176 2.000 1.701 0.000 0.000 0.507 1.210 4.000 3.305 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 0.184 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.894 2.250 2.518 0.000 0.000 1.225 0.990 5.000 5.051 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.000 0.000 1.184 0.000 0.000 0.719 0.000 0.000 1.723 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.459 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 0.079 0.000 0.000 0.124 0.000 0.000 0.351 North Equatorial Current 0.000 0.000 0.200 0.000 0.000 0.147 0.000 0.000 0.827 Study Area 0.775 4.250 5.486 0.000 0.000 2.949 0.639 9.000 14.087 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.000 0.000 2.627 0.569 2.000 3.516 0.877 3.000 3.421 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 0.356 NA NA NA 0.192 1.000 5.222 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 6.884 0.607 5.600 9.230 1.360 13.167 9.679 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.843 3.000 3.558 0.976 2.500 2.561 0.825 3.000 3.638 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.000 0.000 0.403 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 0.201 0.000 0.000 0.275 0.000 0.000 0.372 North Equatorial Current 1.053 1.000 0.950 2.703 2.500 0.925 2.352 3.000 1.276 Study Area 0.222 3.000 13.538 0.608 11.100 18.268 0.704 20.167 28.665 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.558 10.000 3.909 1.471 4.400 2.991 0.000 0.000 1.736 West Baja Peninsula 0.241 1.000 4.149 2.663 23.823 8.947 4.157 33.917 8.158 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.000 0.000 3.214 0.000 0.000 3.797 1.034 1.750 1.692 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.208 1.000 4.815 2.070 9.200 4.445 0.508 2.000 3.935 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 0.220 0.000 0.000 0.131 0.000 0.000 0.091 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 0.470 0.000 0.000 0.260 0.000 0.000 0.131 North Equatorial Current 0.000 0.000 1.592 1.565 2.000 1.278 0.740 1.000 1.351 Study Area 0.667 13.000 19.503 1.637 39.423 24.083 2.262 48.500 21.444 150
Table B-10 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final blue whale density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.897 6.353 2.193 1.226 31.753 25.907 West Baja Peninsula 12.722 22.000 1.729 2.844 81.740 28.744 Equatorial Cold Tongue 14.582 25.650 1.759 1.186 53.417 45.049 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 2.356 6.967 2.957 0.937 27.667 29.534 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 0.308 0.000 0.000 1.840 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 0.295 0.000 0.000 2.559 North Equatorial Current 2.247 2.967 1.321 1.264 12.467 9.865 Study Area 5.602 64.640 11.539 1.335 213.080 159.562 151
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 174 and 175: Table B-11. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215: Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
Page 216 and 217: Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
Page 218 and 219: Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
Page 220 and 221: Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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