Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-7. Summary of model validation statistics for final bottlenose dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.990 170.168 171.858 1.587 179.767 113.267 1.084 189.339 174.623 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 10.374 Coast 1.732 566.026 326.837 1.104 96.850 87.713 0.396 28.063 70.817 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.731 243.763 333.638 0.994 205.450 206.722 0.514 163.105 317.327 Equatorial Warm Pool 0.665 253.935 381.650 0.401 56.834 141.815 0.198 57.783 292.522 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.053 1.000 18.737 0.372 12.600 33.877 0.000 0.000 70.282 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.030 1.000 32.902 0.276 12.600 45.666 0.000 0.000 63.300 Study Area 0.999 1234.891 1235.604 0.894 567.691 635.152 0.635 681.229 1072.708 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.820 168.124 204.909 0.830 181.404 218.591 1.018 355.465 349.332 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 44.883 NA NA NA 0.450 122.333 271.609 Coast 0.444 68.450 154.195 1.276 198.734 155.801 1.158 2132.641 1842.241 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.733 277.356 378.537 0.276 101.940 369.255 0.395 192.274 486.988 Equatorial Warm Pool 0.228 111.253 488.211 0.326 93.909 288.172 1.058 720.399 680.588 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 5.144 0.508 41.165 81.089 0.000 0.000 72.086 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.697 18.250 26.180 0.023 2.000 85.397 0.000 0.000 98.776 Study Area 0.495 636.383 1284.964 0.702 861.006 1227.235 0.892 3735.779 4188.649 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.695 202.361 291.247 2.384 848.353 355.778 1.237 128.303 103.707 West Baja Peninsula 0.393 83.332 212.236 1.196 350.168 292.837 0.754 162.962 216.028 Coast 0.983 838.262 853.074 0.896 1124.296 1254.850 0.524 670.899 1280.668 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.629 120.355 191.300 0.640 78.662 122.859 0.478 48.333 101.072 Equatorial Warm Pool 0.482 299.169 620.559 0.457 294.242 643.846 1.038 411.708 396.659 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.040 2.245 55.955 2.396 191.133 79.778 2.048 48.750 23.799 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.170 12.917 75.935 1.553 127.783 82.308 0.000 0.000 43.952 Study Area 0.707 1733.148 2451.076 0.981 3058.088 3117.795 1.963 4919.173 2506.393 144
Table B-7 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final bottlenose dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.940 594.449 202.166 1.381 3017.733 2185.478 West Baja Peninsula 0.117 7.892 67.275 0.652 726.687 1115.242 Coast 1.595 847.682 531.361 1.002 6571.901 6557.558 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.741 385.757 221.570 0.666 1816.994 2729.268 Equatorial Warm Pool 0.721 265.770 368.673 0.596 2565.003 4302.695 Oligotrophic Offshore 3.214 148.917 46.332 0.915 445.810 487.079 North Equatorial Countercurrent 1.815 132.917 73.235 0.490 307.467 627.651 Study Area 1.502 2335.354 1555.211 1.025 19762.741 19274.788 145
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215: Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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