Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-6. Summary of model validation statistics for final short-beaked common dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.201 335.000 1666.554 0.000 0.000 429.826 2.524 3630.160 1438.164 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 364.739 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.392 4264.733 3064.243 0.075 87.333 1171.341 1.517 8628.689 5686.308 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.962 1028.163 1069.008 0.174 67.067 384.749 0.280 407.500 1456.628 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.699 25.500 36.497 0.000 0.000 70.465 0.203 98.333 485.337 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 60.038 0.000 0.000 51.059 0.000 0.000 256.507 North Equatorial Current 0.090 25.500 284.295 0.516 67.067 129.975 0.541 505.833 935.469 Study Area 0.968 5653.396 5840.838 0.211 473.150 2237.549 1.150 12764.682 11104.108 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.358 1812.830 1334.591 1.146 1817.115 1585.904 1.599 5438.810 3402.288 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 639.841 NA NA NA 1.197 696.257 581.565 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.177 7756.277 6588.362 0.622 3747.533 6025.472 0.546 3855.170 7065.950 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.394 887.867 2251.008 0.210 212.667 1012.556 0.827 2554.160 3088.527 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.193 7.000 36.209 0.000 0.000 234.118 1.331 252.267 189.508 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 77.160 0.000 0.000 135.550 0.000 0.000 170.247 North Equatorial Current 0.819 637.000 777.554 0.426 212.667 499.369 0.813 953.261 1172.319 Study Area 0.961 10463.974 10893.430 0.689 7513.975 10902.537 0.906 15481.747 17094.360 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.300 3540.026 2723.377 1.717 3865.747 2251.982 1.107 1033.666 933.844 West Baja Peninsula 1.246 1667.497 1338.797 1.068 3178.484 2975.042 0.493 545.340 1105.703 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.059 3897.084 3678.269 1.943 5021.097 2583.774 1.243 1438.330 1156.697 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.545 1855.754 3404.788 0.738 2113.921 2863.983 0.443 1100.099 2483.641 Oligotrophic Offshore 1.445 352.670 244.003 0.000 0.000 137.384 5.843 540.000 92.412 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 225.207 0.602 75.667 125.617 5.898 632.330 107.204 North Equatorial Current 0.531 826.337 1556.914 1.241 1407.261 1133.732 0.292 342.617 1172.263 Study Area 1.276 17618.475 13803.493 1.275 15797.079 12387.238 0.735 5501.269 7484.061 142
Table B-6 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final short-beaked common dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 5.943 9532.351 1603.906 1.785 31005.705 17370.437 West Baja Peninsula 0.896 887.330 990.171 0.872 6974.908 7995.857 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.297 1953.653 1506.721 1.055 40649.900 38527.138 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.159 2231.170 1925.011 0.625 12458.368 19939.900 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.162 43.667 269.031 0.735 1319.437 1794.964 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.440 70.917 161.129 0.569 778.914 1369.718 North Equatorial Current 0.778 870.580 1118.833 0.666 5848.123 8780.723 Study Area 2.183 15128.921 6930.793 1.078 106396.669 98678.408 143
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
Page 114 and 115: 5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
Page 116 and 117: 6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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