Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table 2. Variogram model results. Anisotropy constrained as described in the text; for the CCE, the angle = 30º to account for the orientation of the California coast. CCE Model (r 2 ) Nugget Scale Length SST Spherical (0.43) 0.72 5.37 7.85 SSS Gaussian (0.73) 0.05 0.74 8.03 MLD Quadratic (0.59) 80.1 156.9 5.54 TS R. quadratic (0.84) 0.0031 0.0025 1.94 CHL Spherical (0.24) 0.026 0.042 5.69 ETP Model (r 2 ) Nugget Scale Length SST R. quadratic (0.20) 3.27 7.46 27.4 SSS Gaussian (0.64) 0.96 2.16 38.0 TD R. quadratic (0.96) 494 2.15e6 1561 TS R. quadratic (0.75) 0.0075 0.0125 25.1 CHL Gaussian (0.43) 0.012 0.0057 13.6 14
Table 3. Range of annual sample sizes (N) and search parameters for kriging of grid points. Search radii are in degrees latitude/longitude; the two values are for the x and y directions, rotated 30º for the CCE. The two values differ due to anisotropy and thus define a search ellipse around each grid point. Anisotropy was constrained as described in the text. Nmax is the maximum number of samples allowed to interpolate a grid point value. CCE N within study area Search radii 15 N within search ellipses Nmax SST 1681 - 3736 1.5, 2 282 - 492 200 SSS 1631 - 3718 1.5, 2 280 - 490 200 MLD 166 - 427 2, 2.67 40 - 81 40 TS 166 - 427 2, 2.67 28 - 60 40 CHL 390 - 695 2, 2.67 68 - 146 40 ETP 3.3 Modeling Framework N within study area Search radii N within search ellipses Nmax SST 1686 - 7551 15, 10 638 - 2417 400 SSS 1681 - 7551 15, 10 638 - 2417 400 TD 719 - 1368 15, 10.7 218 - 375 80 TS 719 - 1368 15, 7.5 179 - 310 80 CHL 489 - 1676 15, 7.5 117 - 442 80 3.3.1 GLM and GAM Models Cetacean population density predictions were derived from encounter rate and group size models developed within a generalized additive modeling framework developed by Hedley et al. (1999) and Ferguson et al. (2006a and b). We also examined alternative methods of computing density, including: 1) predicting density directly by creating a single cetacean-habitat model with
Page 1 and 2: U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
Page 3: C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
Page 6 and 7: This report was prepared under cont
Page 8 and 9: Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
Page 10 and 11: C.1 Journal Publications ..........
Page 12 and 13: Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
Page 14 and 15: List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
Page 16 and 17: Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
Page 18 and 19: Acknowledgements This project was f
Page 20 and 21: of these choices as possible and us
Page 22 and 23: Although our models include most of
Page 24 and 25: 2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27: comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31: used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33: 3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35: variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 38 and 39: “number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41: Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43: were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45: Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
Page 48 and 49: Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51: incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53: overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 56 and 57: Table 7. Geographically stratified
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
Page 64 and 65: Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
Page 66 and 67: Attempts to adjust search parameter
Page 68 and 69: CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
Page 70 and 71: 4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
Page 72 and 73: 4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
Page 74 and 75: Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 76 and 77: Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
Page 78 and 79: Figure 15. The transect lines used
Page 80 and 81: A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
Page 82 and 83: dependent. For example, the number
Page 84 and 85: Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
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Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
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Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
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Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
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Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
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Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
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Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
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Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
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Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
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Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
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Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
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Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
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Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
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Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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