Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and CV(SST) spatial resolutions selected for ten California Current Ecosystem species ...............................................9 Table 2. Variogram model results ............................................................................................. 14 Table 3. Range of annual sample sizes (N) and search parameters for kriging of grid points ..... 15 Table 4. Summary of the weighted effective strip width (ESW = 1/ f(0)) and g(0) estimates used to calculate predicted densities for the CCE ............................................................................... 24 Table 5. Total number of sightings used to build, validate, and parameterize the final models for the ETP ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Table 6. Geographically stratified estimates of abundance (N), density (D), coefficient of variation (CV), and lognormal 90% confidence intervals of density for unmodeled cetacean species in the California Current Ecosystem .............................................................................. 33 Table 7. Geographically stratified estimates of abundance (N), density (D), coefficient of variation (CV), and lognormal 90% confidence intervals of density for three ETP cetacean species ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Table 8. Geographically stratified estimates of abundance (N), density (D), coefficient of variation (CV), and lognormal 90% confidence intervals for unmodeled cetacean species within EEZ waters of the Hawaiian Islands .......................................................................................... 34 Table 9. Number of segments containing a sighting and the total number of sightings used to build mid-trophic models in the ETP and CCE .......................................................................... 37 Table 10. Comparison of the simple and complex encounter rate GAMs for the ETP ................ 51 Table 11. Comparison of the simple and complex group size GAMs for the ETP ...................... 53 Table 12. Number of encounters for the four species and six spatial resolutions considered in our California Current ecosystem analyses ...................................................................................... 56 Table 13. Variables selected for models built using oceanographic, net-tow, acoustic backscatter, and a combination of all data to determine whether indices of mid-trophic species improve cetacean-habitat models ............................................................................................................ 66 Table 14. Starting and final AIC values for models of the number of sightings of each species built using oceanographic, net-tow, acoustic backscatter, or a combination of all data ............... 68 Table 15. The explained deviance for the models of the number of sightings of each species built using oceanographic, net-tow, acoustic backscatter, or a combination of all data ....................... 68 Table 16. Ratios of observed to predicted number of sightings in the ETP (SE = Standard Error) ................................................................................................................................................. 69 Table 17. Ratios of observed to predicted number of sightings in the CCE................................ 70 x
Table 18. Spatial and temporal estimates of the number of animals observed in each geographic stratum, calculated using line-transect methods (LT) and predicted based on results from the 1991-2001 CCE models (Pred) ................................................................................................. 77 Table 19. Data type (remotely sensed [RS] or combined remotely sensed and in situ [CB]) and number of sightings used to build, validate, and parameterize the final models for the CCE ...... 81 Table 20. Abundance (number of animals) predicted based on results from the final CCE models and calculated using line-transect methods (Barlow 2003) ........................................................ 82 Table 21. Predictor variables included in the final encounter rate (ER) and group size (GS) GAMs for the CCE ................................................................................................................... 83 Table 22. Proportion of deviance explained (Expl. Dev.) and average squared prediction error (ASPE) for the final encounter rate (ER) and group size (GS) models for the CCE .................... 84 Table 23. Effective degrees of freedom for each predictor variable included in the final encounter rate GAMs for the ETP ............................................................................................. 88 Table 24. Effective degrees of freedom for each predictor variable included in the final group size GAMs for the ETP ............................................................................................................. 89 Appendix A, Table A-1. Spatial and temporal estimates of the number of animals observed in each geographic stratum, calculated using line-transect methods (LT) and predicted based on results from the final CCE models (Pred) ............................................................................... 104 Appendix B, Table B-1. Summary of model validation statistics for final offshore spotted dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1998-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data ................................................................................................................ 133 Appendix B, Table B-2. Summary of model validation statistics for final eastern spinner dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data ................................................................................................................ 134 Appendix B, Table B-3. Summary of model validation statistics for final whitebelly spinner dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data ................................................................................................................ 136 Appendix B, Table B-4. Summary of model validation statistics for final striped dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data ......................................................................................................................................... 138 Appendix B, Table B-5. Summary of model validation statistics for final rough-toothed dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data .............................................................................................................................. 140 xi
Page 1 and 2: U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
Page 3: C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
Page 6 and 7: This report was prepared under cont
Page 8 and 9: Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
Page 10 and 11: C.1 Journal Publications ..........
Page 12 and 13: Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
Page 16 and 17: Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
Page 18 and 19: Acknowledgements This project was f
Page 20 and 21: of these choices as possible and us
Page 22 and 23: Although our models include most of
Page 24 and 25: 2.0 Background The Navy and other m
Page 26 and 27: comparison is based on a separate s
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
Page 30 and 31: used to evaluate the ability of sum
Page 32 and 33: 3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
Page 34 and 35: variable. Interpolated maps of the
Page 36 and 37: Table 2. Variogram model results. A
Page 38 and 39: “number of individuals” as the
Page 40 and 41: Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
Page 42 and 43: were built separately for each of t
Page 44 and 45: Expanding models to the entire U.S.
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
Page 48 and 49: Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
Page 50 and 51: incorporation of geographic coordin
Page 52 and 53: overwhelming majority of “Bryde
Page 54 and 55: the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
Page 56 and 57: Table 7. Geographically stratified
Page 58 and 59: above, and the data themselves, are
Page 60 and 61: (hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
Page 62 and 63: avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
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needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
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Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
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Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
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Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
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Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
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Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
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Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
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Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
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Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
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Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
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Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
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Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
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Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
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Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
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Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
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Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
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Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
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Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
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Table B-2. Summary of model validat
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Table B-10. Summary of model valida
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Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
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Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
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Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
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Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
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Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
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Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
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Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
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Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
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Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
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Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
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Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
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Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
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Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
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Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
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Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
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Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
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Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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