Final Technical Report: - Southwest Fisheries Science Center - NOAA

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Table B-8. Summary of model validation statistics for final Risso's dolphin density models in the ETP built on 1986-2003 SWFSC survey data and tested on 2006 SWFSC survey data. Obs/Pred = ratio of stratified line-transect to model predicted density estimates. Obs = observed number of groups multiplied by the observed average group size. Pred = predicted number of groups multiplied by the predicted group size. Statistics are provided for each year separately and for all years pooled, and for each stratum separately and the study area as a whole. 1986 1987 1988 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.189 16.667 87.964 1.078 36.350 33.732 0.581 13.000 22.361 West Baja Peninsula NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 7.141 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.280 83.407 65.176 1.398 55.000 39.343 1.070 111.599 104.296 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.221 184.791 151.366 1.077 53.333 49.508 0.361 32.186 89.070 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 14.035 1.180 20.000 16.942 1.647 55.500 33.689 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 14.579 2.158 52.000 24.098 2.905 53.500 18.416 North Equatorial Current 0.453 17.500 38.606 0.568 8.000 14.080 0.105 5.000 47.655 Study Area 0.891 284.865 319.548 1.106 171.183 154.752 0.995 306.453 308.083 1989 1990 1998 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 0.485 25.996 53.561 0.457 14.667 32.117 1.109 197.925 178.394 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 11.086 NA NA NA 0.000 0.000 16.505 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.412 29.833 72.328 0.952 96.267 101.172 0.641 69.415 108.329 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.206 193.547 160.426 0.131 12.333 94.024 1.104 318.423 288.321 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 1.781 0.142 8.000 56.247 0.000 0.000 49.012 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 6.831 0.183 8.000 43.713 0.000 0.000 43.742 North Equatorial Current 0.174 6.000 34.507 0.000 0.000 38.319 0.000 0.000 66.034 Study Area 0.827 249.376 301.608 1.397 489.350 350.253 0.817 612.500 750.013 1999 2000 2003 Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 2.504 177.676 70.963 2.544 267.613 105.180 1.641 123.806 75.449 West Baja Peninsula 2.216 35.000 15.794 0.112 6.500 57.889 0.000 0.000 18.541 Equatorial Cold Tongue 0.147 8.563 58.257 3.136 132.494 42.245 0.863 22.647 26.243 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 0.633 131.000 207.031 0.810 166.283 205.198 0.884 176.774 200.065 Oligotrophic Offshore 2.610 73.922 28.319 0.579 28.350 48.946 0.000 0.000 8.412 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.427 12.667 29.666 0.158 5.250 33.211 0.000 0.000 11.245 North Equatorial Current 1.396 106.589 76.333 1.367 110.799 81.030 0.175 6.540 37.339 Study Area 0.985 497.012 504.526 1.221 691.103 565.987 1.052 453.556 431.309 146
Table B-8 cont. Summary of model validation statistics for final Risso's dolphin density models in the ETP. 2006 All Years Stratum Obs/Pred Obs Pred Obs/Pred Obs Pred Costa Rica Dome 1.985 176.143 88.731 1.403 1049.843 748.452 West Baja Peninsula 0.000 0.000 9.424 0.304 41.500 136.381 Equatorial Cold Tongue 1.086 43.000 39.596 0.993 652.224 656.986 Eastern Pacific Warm Pool 1.772 186.344 105.163 0.939 1455.013 1550.172 Oligotrophic Offshore 0.000 0.000 21.410 0.666 185.772 278.793 North Equatorial Countercurrent 0.000 0.000 27.083 0.520 131.417 252.582 North Equatorial Current 1.716 72.001 41.962 0.699 332.429 475.864 Study Area 1.318 419.087 317.983 1.043 4174.485 4004.063 147
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U N I R A P E D T T E M D S E N TA
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C O L A N IO T A N U N C I EA .S. D
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This report was prepared under cont
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Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbr
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C.1 Journal Publications ..........
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Figure 18. Encounter rate models bu
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List of Tables Table 1. Summary of
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Appendix B, Table B-6. Summary of m
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Acknowledgements This project was f
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of these choices as possible and us
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Although our models include most of
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2.0 Background The Navy and other m
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comparison is based on a separate s
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Figure 1. Transects (green lines) s
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used to evaluate the ability of sum
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3.1.5 Mid-trophic Sampling with Net
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variable. Interpolated maps of the
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Table 2. Variogram model results. A
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“number of individuals” as the
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Encounter Rate and Group Size Model
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were built separately for each of t
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Expanding models to the entire U.S.
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Table 4. Summary of the weighted ef
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Consistent with Barlow and Forney (
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incorporation of geographic coordin
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overwhelming majority of “Bryde
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the genera Ziphius and Mesoplodon.
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Table 7. Geographically stratified
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above, and the data themselves, are
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(hereafter “summer”). SWFSC has
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avoid these problems, we decided to
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Figure 9. Thermocline depth (m) obs
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Attempts to adjust search parameter
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CAMMS 1991 PODS 1993 ORCAWALE 1996
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4.2 Modeling Framework : GLM and GA
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4.2.4 Conclusions Regardings Modeli
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Table 10 cont. Comparison of the si
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Table 11 cont. Comparison of the si
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Figure 15. The transect lines used
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A) Striped dolphin 10 km B) Short-b
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dependent. For example, the number
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Figure 19. Predicted average densit
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ecosystem, eastern spinner dolphins
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Table 13. Variables selected for mo
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Table 14. Starting and final AIC va
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Table 17. Ratios of observed to pre
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species represented in the acoustic
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0.29 (Risso’s dolphin) to 3.20 (n
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Figure 25. Sample 2005 validation p
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Table 18. (continued) 1991 1993 Nor
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Blue whales had the greatest deviat
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Table 20. Abundance (number of anim
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Table 22. Proportion of deviance ex
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Figure 27. Average density (AveDens
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Table 23. Effective degrees of free
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We attempted to build encounter rat
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5.0 Conclusion The field of predict
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6.0 Transition Plan The models of c
Page 118 and 119: needed to ensure that the SDSS rema
Page 120 and 121: Administrative Report LJ-07-02. NOA
Page 122 and 123: Forney KA, Barlow J (1993) Prelimin
Page 124 and 125: Redfern JV, Barlow J, Ballance LT,
Page 126 and 127: Appendix A: Detailed Model Results
Page 128 and 129: Table A-1 (continued) Blue whale 19
Page 130 and 131: Figure A-1a. Striped dolphin 108
Page 132 and 133: Figure A-1c. Risso’s dolphin 110
Page 134 and 135: Figure A-1e. Northern right whale d
Page 136 and 137: Figure A-1g. Sperm whale 114
Page 138 and 139: Figure A-1i. Blue whale 116
Page 140 and 141: Figure A-1k. Baird’s beaked whale
Page 142 and 143: Figure A-2. Predicted average densi
Page 144 and 145: Figure A-2b. Short-beaked common do
Page 146 and 147: Figure A-2d. Pacific white-sided do
Page 148 and 149: Figure A-2f. Dall’s porpoise 126
Page 150 and 151: Figure A-2h. Fin whale 128
Page 152 and 153: Figure A-2j. Humpback whale 130
Page 154 and 155: Figure A-2l. Small beaked whales 13
Page 156 and 157: Table B-2. Summary of model validat
Page 172 and 173: Table B-10. Summary of model valida
Page 184 and 185: Figure B-1. Predicted yearly and av
Page 186 and 187: Figure B-1. b) Eastern spinner dolp
Page 188 and 189: Figure B-1. c) Whitebelly spinner d
Page 190 and 191: Figure B-1. d) Striped dolphin 168
Page 192 and 193: Figure B-1. e) Rough-toothed dolphi
Page 194 and 195: Figure B-1. f) Short-beaked common
Page 196 and 197: Figure B-1. g) Bottlenose dolphin 1
Page 198 and 199: Figure B-1. h) Risso’s dolphin 17
Page 200 and 201: Figure B-1. i) Cuvier’s beaked wh
Page 202 and 203: Figure B-1. j) Blue whale 180
Page 204 and 205: Figure B-1. k) Bryde’s whale 182
Page 206 and 207: Figure B-1. l) Short-finned pilot w
Page 208 and 209: Figure B-1. m) Dwarf sperm whale 18
Page 210 and 211: Figure B-1. n) Mesoplodon beaked wh
Page 212 and 213: Figure B-1. o) Small beaked whales
Page 214 and 215: Figure B-2. Predicted average densi
Page 216 and 217: Figure B-2. (cont.) c) Whitebelly s
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Figure B-2. (cont.) g) Bottlenose d
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Figure B-2. (cont.) k) Bryde’s wh
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Figure B-2. (cont.) o) Small beaked
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Ferguson MC (2005) Cetacean Populat
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Barlow J, Kahru M, Mitchell BG (In
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Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-374, U.S. Dep
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