09.04.2013 Views

Chapters 1 - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Chapters 1 - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Chapters 1 - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

Chapter 5 <br />

sea level rise in the general vicinity of the Refuge; the approximate tidal range at the site; salt<br />

marsh accretion rates; <strong>and</strong> the assumption that all of the Refuge’s tidally influenced habitats have<br />

unrestricted tidal flow (Clough <strong>and</strong> Larson 2008). The historic trend for sea level rise in the<br />

general vicinity of the Refuge was estimated at 1.5 mm/year (0.059 inches/year) using the average<br />

of the three closest stations (9410660, Los Angeles California; 9410580, Newport Beach California;<br />

9410840, Santa Monica California). There are no long-term sea level trend data available for the<br />

gage at Long Beach CA. The measured rate at this location is roughly equal to the global average<br />

for the last 100 years.<br />

Scenario<br />

Global SLR 1<br />

by 2025 (cm)<br />

Table 5-1<br />

Scenarios Used to Run SLAMM 5<br />

Global SLR 1 by<br />

2050 (cm)<br />

Global SLR 1 by<br />

2075 (cm)<br />

Global SLR 1 by 2100<br />

(cm)<br />

A1B Mean 8 17 28 39<br />

A1B Max 14 30 49 69<br />

1 meter 13 28 48 100<br />

1.5 meter<br />

1<br />

Sea Level Rise<br />

18 41 70 150<br />

Source: (Clough <strong>and</strong> Larson 2008)<br />

The tide range at the Refuge was estimated at 1.67 meters using the average of the four closest<br />

NOAA oceanic gages (9410660, Los Angeles California; 9410580, Newport Beach California;<br />

9410680, Long Beach, Terminal Isl<strong>and</strong> California; 9410650, Cabrillo Beach California). The USGS<br />

topographical map for this region suggests an approximate tidal range of four feet (1.22 meters)<br />

(Clough <strong>and</strong> Larson 2008).<br />

The salt marsh accretion rate used in the model for this site was 2 mm per year (0.079 inches per<br />

year), which represents the low end of measured accretion rates for salt marsh. This rate was<br />

deemed appropriate because freshwater input into the marsh is extremely limited <strong>and</strong> subsidence<br />

has occurred in the area in the past. The rate of 2 mm per year does account for biogenic<br />

production <strong>and</strong> the possibility that increased sea level rise will deliver additional sediment to the<br />

Refuge (Clough <strong>and</strong> Larson 2008).<br />

Although the results of the SLAMM for the Seal Beach NWR indicate that the Refuge would have<br />

differing degrees of vulnerability to sea level rise depending on the scenario of sea level rise<br />

analyzed, the results confirm that the Refuge will be adversely affected by sea level rise in all<br />

scenarios. Under the most conservative sea level rise scenario (A1B Mean), 0.39 meter (1.28 feet)<br />

by 2100, roughly one quarter of the Refuge’s salt marsh habitat would be converted to subtidal<br />

habitat. The amount of salt marsh acres lost to habitat conversion increases to two thirds under<br />

scenario A1B Max, a 0.69 meter (2.26 feet) rise by 2100, <strong>and</strong> nearly one hundred percent of the salt<br />

marsh habitat would be lost under scenarios that assume a rise of greater than one meter (3.28<br />

feet). The small quantity of undeveloped dry l<strong>and</strong> on the Refuge is predicted to be vulnerable<br />

under all scenarios run, while the developed dry l<strong>and</strong> was assumed to be maintained <strong>and</strong> protected<br />

in this analysis (Clough <strong>and</strong> Larson 2008).<br />

A review of results presented in Table 5-1 indicates that under the sea level rise scenario adopted<br />

by the California Coastal Conservancy Board (40 cm [16 inches] by 2050 <strong>and</strong> 140 cm [55 inches] by<br />

2100) roughly one quarter of the salt marsh habitat on the Refuge would be converted to subtidal<br />

5-8 Seal Beach National <strong>Wildlife</strong> Refuge

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!