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Figure T19: Example of a Problem Tree for a Water Improvement Project Source: Reproduced with permission from http://boru.pbworks.com/Draw-a-problem-tree Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 75
T7.3 Scenario Analysis Scenarios are stories about the future. They are creative answers to the question: “What if…?” Scenarios encourage stakeholders to consider the range of changes that could occur in the future, and to think about their likely outcomes and impacts. It is mainly useful for SIA Stages 4 and 5, i.e., to help build the ‘without project’ scenario and the project theory of change. It can be helpful to explain scenario building by comparing a scenario to a film or movie (Box T6). Box T6. What Makes a Successful Scenario? A film has actors, action, scenes, conflict, comedy, drama, and happy or sad endings. A scenario should have the same elements as a good film. The participants should be encouraged to stretch their imaginations to think about what might happen in the community, for example, considering storylines that are unlikely but plausible. If the stories are dull and predictable, the participants are probably not thinking outside their traditional boundaries. The most successful scenarios are ones in which there are interesting comparisons between two or more of the storylines, and where the storylines stretch beyond what most people are already thinking about. Source: Evans, Velarde et al., 2006. Description of Method Evans, Velarde et al (2006) propose six main steps, although the order of these is flexible. Step 1: Identify historical eras of change and renewal This activity encourages participants to think about change, even when a situation might appear to be quite stable. A long timeframe such as 100, 1000, or 10,000 years can be selected - the longest timeframe understandable to the group – which may require connecting several sheets of flipchart paper together. The participants are then asked to write or draw important local events on the timeline, and to identify different historical ‘eras’ and trends. The changes and factors causing the changes are then discussed and identified. It is often helpful to invite a community elder to lead this discussion. In some communities, participants may not be used to thinking in terms of historical eras, or historical information on the area may not be readily available, which may mean that outside resources (e.g., regional historians) need to be brought in if this is acceptable. Step 2: Identify the ‘focal questions’ The focal questions are the main concerns or topics of the exercise. The scenarios should ultimately answer these questions. The group should be asked: • What are your main concerns for the future without the project? • What are your main concerns or issues with the project? Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 76
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MANUAL FOR SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
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Table of Contents T1 Introduction t
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List of Boxes Box T1. General Data
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Forest Trends’ mission is to main
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List of Acronyms (Core Guidance and
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Sections T5 and T6 present a range
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Figure T1: The Main Stages and Step
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Figure T2: Example of a Conceptual
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Figure T4: Generic Conceptual Model
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Stages 3-5 of Open Standards The re
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Figure T7: Diagram of the ROtI Anal
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table so they can be read, discusse
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Table T1: Theory of Change for Seyc
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T2.4 Participatory Impact Pathways
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Table T4: The PIPA Outcomes Logic M
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Main Sources and Further Guidance h
Page 33 and 34: T3 Sustainability Framework Approac
Page 35 and 36: Figure T12: SAPA Initiative Modifie
Page 37 and 38: 1. Identify a small group of key in
Page 39 and 40: Table T6: Example of LOAM Livelihoo
Page 41 and 42: T4 Matching Methods T4.1 Introducti
Page 43 and 44: Advantages and Disadvantages of ‘
Page 45 and 46: Box T1. General Data Collection and
Page 47 and 48: Box T3. Data Collection Methods Pro
Page 49 and 50: T6 Specific Data Collection Methods
Page 51 and 52: Table T8: Example of a Household BN
Page 53 and 54: The poverty index can range from 0%
Page 55 and 56: The PIA guide proposes the followin
Page 57 and 58: day. The ‘before project’ score
Page 59 and 60: Figure T15: “Before and After”
Page 61 and 62: Table T10: Pair-Wise Ranking Showin
Page 63 and 64: Impact calendars Impact calendars c
Page 65 and 66: A large sample is needed to be conf
Page 67 and 68: Table T15: Scoring of Changes in Ag
Page 69 and 70: Table T17: QPA Scoring of Social Eq
Page 71 and 72: T6.4 Participatory Economic Valuati
Page 73 and 74: Advantages and Disadvantages of Par
Page 75 and 76: The stories are collected from thos
Page 77 and 78: Main Sources and Further Guidance D
Page 79 and 80: Table T19: Stakeholder Analysis Pro
Page 81 and 82: Figure T18. Venn Diagram with Stake
Page 83: T7.2 Problem Trees Assuming it is p
Page 87 and 88: Box T7. Driving Forces in a Communi
Page 89 and 90: Maack, J.N. 2001. Scenario analysis
Page 91 and 92: In terms of non-monetary benefits,
Page 93 and 94: and duration of employment, the sta
Page 95 and 96: Physical Capital Positive changes i
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Page 101 and 102: PROJECT: PROFAFOR TYPE: Plantations
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Page 105 and 106: HUMAN CAPITAL Increase in perceptio
Page 107 and 108: Table T26: Potential Mid- to Long-T
Page 109 and 110: Figure T20: Example of Relationship
Page 111 and 112: Figure T22: Additional Potential So
Page 113 and 114: T9 Further Guidance on Indicator Se
Page 115 and 116: Box T9. Goals and Indicators Defini
Page 117 and 118: When selecting indicators, it is be
Page 119 and 120: Table T27: Indicator Quality Assess
Page 121 and 122: Box T10. Indicators Derived from th
Page 123 and 124: T9.5 Disaggregating Indicators Mult
Page 125 and 126: Mayoux, L. 2001. What Do We Want to
Page 127 and 128: Landscape Outcomes Assessment Metho
Page 129 and 130: • Access to essential services (w
Page 131 and 132: T10.3 Social Indicators Derived fro
Page 133 and 134: Empowerment of women indicators:
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CCBA, 2008. Climate, Community & Bi
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James A., Pangtey V., Singh P. & Vi
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SEEP Network. 2006. Social Performa
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